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21.
The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process. 相似文献
22.
Variability and climate sensitivity of fast ice extent in the north-eastern Kara Sea 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This work investigates the temporal and spatial variation of shore-fast ice extent in the north-eastern part of the Kara Sea during 1953-1990 and its sensitivity to interannual variability of the regional climate. The area of fast ice in spring months shows a bimodal distribution. This indicates the existence of two different regimes of fast ice formation driven by the system of prevailing winds. The westward wind transport during the cold season gives larger fast ice extent while the eastward wind transport suppresses the expansion of fast ice. There is a significant correlation (ca. −0.55) between the average winter temperature and the area of fast ice. Linear trends for time records of shore-fast ice area in spring show a decrease during 1953-1990. This decrease is most pronounced in April: the mean fast ice area in April is 12% lower in 1988-1990 compared to 1953-55. A comparison of fast ice regimes for two particular years–1979 and 1985–revealed a significant influence of cyclone activity on fast ice development over the course of the cold season. It is shown that partial break-ups of fast ice in spring 1985 are associated with the passage of cyclones across the area of fast ice. 相似文献
23.
The Biscayarhalvøya-Holtedahlfonna zone (BHZ) in north-western Spitsbergen is a north-south trending, narrow horst, with crystalline basement rocks exposed under a Devonian unconformity. Previous K-Ar, 40 Ar/39 Ar and Rb-Sr analyses have confirmed the occurrence of Caledonian thermal events, and Grenvillian ages have been obtained by conventional zircon U-Pb and single-zircon Pb evaporation methods. A total of 55 zircon grains from three samples (an augen metagranite, a micaceous schist and a granitic neosome of migmatite) have been analysed by the single-zircon Pb evaporation method. The grains with the age range of ca. 950-1100 My (million years) are the major component in all three samples, suggesting tectono-thermal activity in that period. The detrital versus resorption orgin of the rounded shapes of these grains from the granitic neosome is not clear yet. Therefore, the ages of the migmatization and of the sedimentary protoliths are not concluded. The youngest presumed detrital grain from the granitic neosome is 1060 My old. The metagranite, cutting the Richarddalen unit, yielded grains with an age of ca. 950 Mya. A granite dyke with an age range of 955-968 My cuts the Biscayarhuken unit in the northern Liefdefjorden area. These indicate the sedimentary protoliths of the Richarddalen and Biscayarhuken units are pre-Neoproterozoic. The youngest detrital zircon ages of ca. 940 My indicate Neoproterozoic sedimentary protoliths of the Solanderfjellet micaceous schists. A significant population of zircon grains with an age range of 1600-1900 My in all three samples suggests a wide exposure of these rocks in the source areas during Meso- and Neoproterozoic times. Several Archean ages have also been obtained. The results are generally conformable with those obtained from north-western Spitsbergen. 相似文献
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In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO2 emission, which constituted nearly 80%of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO2emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO2emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product(GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO2 equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO2 emission are critical to insure theRussiansupply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of RussianCO2emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway. 相似文献
28.
Giovanni Aloisi Klaus Wallmann Alexander Derkachev Erwin Suess 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(8):1735-1748
A numerical model was applied to investigate and quantify the biogeochemical processes fueled by the expulsion of barium and methane-rich fluids in the sediments of a giant cold-seep area in the Derugin Basin (Sea of Okhotsk). Geochemical profiles of dissolved Ba2+, Sr2+, Ca2+, SO42−, HS−, DIC, I− and of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) were fitted numerically to constrain the transport processes and the kinetics of biogeochemical reactions. The model results indicate that the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is the major process proceeding at a depth-integrated rate of 4.9 μmol cm−2 a−1, followed by calcium carbonate and strontian barite precipitation/dissolution processes having a total depth-integrated rate of 2.1 μmol cm−2 a−1. At the low seepage rate prevailing at our study site (0.14 cm a−1) all of the rising barium is consumed by precipitation of barite in the sedimentary column and no benthic barium flux is produced. Numerical experiments were run to investigate the response of this diagenetic environment to variations of hydrological and biogeochemical conditions. Our results show that relatively low rates of fluid flow (<∼5 cm a−1) promote the dispersed precipitation of up to 26 wt% of barite and calcium carbonate throughout the uppermost few meters of the sedimentary column. Distinct and persistent events (several hundreds of years long) of more vigorous fluid flow (from 20-110 cm a−1), instead, result in the formation of barite-carbonate crusts near the sediment surface. Competition between barium and methane for sulfate controls the mineralogy of these sediment precipitates such that at low dissolved methane/barium ratios (<4-11) barite precipitation dominates, while at higher methane/barium ratios sulfate availability is limited by AOM and calcium carbonate prevails. When seepage rates exceed 110 cm a−1, barite precipitation occurs at the seafloor and is so rapid that barite chimneys form in the water column. In the Derugin Basin, spectacular barite constructions up to 20 m high, which cover an area of roughly 22 km2 and contain in excess of 5 million tons of barite, are built through this process. In these conditions, our model calculates a flux of barium to the water column of at least 20 μmol cm−2 a−1. We estimate that a minimum of 0.44 × 106 mol a−1 are added to the bottom waters of the Derugin Basin by cold seep processes, likely affecting the barium cycle in the Sea of Okhotsk. 相似文献
29.
Alik Ismail-Zadeh Igor Tsepelev Chistopher Talbot Alexander Korotkii 《Tectonophysics》2004,387(1-4):81-103
Numerical studies of ductile deformations induced by salt movements have, until now, been restricted to two-dimensional (2D) modelling of diapirism. This paper suggests a numerical approach to model the evolution of three-dimensional (3D) salt structures toward increasing maturity. This approach is also used here to restore the evolution of salt structures through successive earlier stages. The numerical methodology is applied to study several model examples. We analyse a model of salt diapirs that develop from an initial random perturbation of the interface between salt and its overburden and restore the evolved salt diapirs to their initial stages. We show that the average restoration errors are less than 1%. An evolutionary model of a 2D salt wall loaded by a 2D pile of sediments predicts a decomposition of the salt wall into 3D diapiric structures when the overburden of salt is supplied by 3D synkinematic wedge of sediments. We model salt extrusion feeding a gravity current over the depositional surface and estimate an average rate of extrusion and horizontal velocity of salt spreading. Faulting of the overburden to salt overhangs initiates new secondary diapirs, and we analyse the growth of these secondary diapirs. We also study how lateral flow effects the evolution of salt diapirs. The shape of a salt diapir can be very different if the rate of horizontal flow is much greater than the initial rate of diapiric growth solely due to gravity. We discuss the applicability of the results of the models to the evolution of Late Permian salt structures in the Pricaspian basin (Russia and Kazakhstan). These structures are distinguishable into a variety of styles representing different stages of growth: salt pillows, diapirs, giant salt massifs, 2D diapiric walls and 3D stocks complicated by large overhangs. The different sizes, shapes and maturities of salt structures in different parts of the Pricaspian basin reflect areal differences in salt thickness and loading history. Our results suggest that the numerical methodology can be employed to analyse the evolution of all salt structures that have upbuilt through younger ductile overburdens. 相似文献
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