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191.
192.
Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming. 相似文献
193.
Xavier Rodó Mercedes Pascual Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Alexander Gershunov Dáithí A. Stone Filippo Giorgi Peter J. Hudson James Kinter Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias Nils Ch. Stenseth David Alonso Javier García-Serrano Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640
The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed. 相似文献
194.
Nicolas C. Jourdain Alexander Sen Gupta Andréa S. Taschetto Caroline C. Ummenhofer Aurel F. Moise Karumuri Ashok 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3073-3102
A large spread exists in both Indian and Australian average monsoon rainfall and in their interannual variations diagnosed from various observational and reanalysis products. While the multi model mean monsoon rainfall from 59 models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) fall within the observational uncertainty, considerable model spread exists. Rainfall seasonality is consistent across observations and reanalyses, but most CMIP models produce either a too peaked or a too flat seasonal cycle, with CMIP5 models generally performing better than CMIP3. Considering all North-Australia rainfall, most models reproduce the observed Australian monsoon-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection, with the strength of the relationship dependent on the strength of the simulated ENSO. However, over the Maritime Continent, the simulated monsoon-ENSO connection is generally weaker than observed, depending on the ability of each model to realistically reproduce the ENSO signature in the Warm Pool region. A large part of this bias comes from the contribution of Papua, where moisture convergence seems to be particularly affected by this SST bias. The Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship is affected by overly persistent ENSO events in many CMIP models. Despite significant wind anomalies in the Indian Ocean related to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, the monsoon-IOD relationship remains relatively weak both in the observations and in the CMIP models. Based on model fidelity in reproducing realistic monsoon characteristics and ENSO teleconnections, we objectively select 12 “best” models to analyze projections in the rcp8.5 scenario. Eleven of these models are from the CMIP5 ensemble. In India and Australia, most of these models produce 5–20 % more monsoon rainfall over the second half of the twentieth century than during the late nineteenth century. By contrast, there is no clear model consensus over the Maritime Continent. 相似文献
195.
Alexander Vasa 《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):645-666
The EU allows those installations that are subject to emissions trading to use a limited volume of certified emissions reductions (CERs), generated through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), to cover their own GHG emissions. These CERs can be used in addition to the EU allowances (EUAs), which were primarily allocated free to installations in Phase II of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) from 2008 to 2012. For the year 2008, the CER limits, which are differentiated by EU Member State, created substantial arbitrage rents (due to the CER-EUA spread) of approximately EU€250 million. Different options for the allocation of this rent are discussed and it is found that, according to economic theory, making the right to use CERs tradable or the regulator pre-committing to buying CERs at the level of the relevant limit reduces the inefficiencies connected to the current regulation. Furthermore, auctioning these CER usage rights shifts the rents created through the CER-EUA spread to the Member State itself. The improved design and implementation of CDM limits justifies EU policy makers intervening to correct previously competition-distorting choices. 相似文献
196.
197.
Pierre Kaufmann Rogério Marcon André Abrantes Emilio C. Bortolucci Luis Olavo T. Fernandes Grigory I. Kropotov Amauri S. Kudaka Nelson Machado Adolfo Marun Valery Nikolaev Alexandre Silva Claudemir S. da Silva Alexander Timofeevsky 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(3):579-598
The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016. 相似文献
198.
Qing‐Zhu Yin Qin Zhou Qiu‐Li Li Xian‐Hua Li Yu Liu Guo‐Qiang Tang Alexander N. Krot Peter Jenniskens 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(8):1426-1439
Novato, a newly observed fall in the San Francisco Bay area, is a shocked and brecciated L6 ordinary chondrite containing dark and light lithologies. We have investigated the U‐Pb isotope systematics of coarse Cl‐apatite grains of metamorphic origin in Novato with a large geometry ion microprobe. The U‐Pb systematics of Novato apatite reveals an upper intercept age of 4472 ± 31 Ma and lower intercept age of 473 ± 38 Ma. The upper intercept age is within error identical to the U‐Pb apatite age of 4452 ± 21 Ma measured in the Chelyabinsk LL5 chondrite. This age is interpreted to reflect a massive collisional resetting event due to a large impact associated with the peak arrival time at the primordial asteroid belt of ejecta debris from the Moon‐forming giant impact on Earth. The lower intercept age is consistent with the most precisely dated Ar‐Ar ages of 470 ± 6 Ma of shocked L chondrites, and the fossil meteorites and extraterrestrial chromite relicts found in Ordovician limestones with an age of 467.3 ± 1.6 Ma in Sweden and China. The lower intercept age reflects a major disturbance related to the catastrophic disruption of the L chondrite parent body most likely associated with the Gefion asteroid family, which produced an initially intense meteorite bombardment of the Earth in Ordovician period and reset and degassed at least approximately 35% of the L chondrite falls today. We predict that the 470 Ma impact event is likely to be found on the Moon and Mars, if not Mercury. 相似文献
199.
Jemma Davidson Alexander N. Krot Kazuhide Nagashima Eric Hellebrand Dante S. Lauretta 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(8):1456-1474
We report in situ O isotope and chemical compositions of magnetite and olivine in chondrules of the carbonaceous chondrites Watson‐002 (anomalous CK3) and Asuka (A)‐881595 (ungrouped C3). Magnetite in Watson‐002 occurs as inclusion‐free subhedral grains and rounded inclusion‐bearing porous grains replacing Fe,Ni‐metal. In A‐881595, magnetite is almost entirely inclusion‐free and coexists with Ni‐rich sulfide and less abundant Ni‐poor metal. Oxygen isotope compositions of chondrule olivine in both meteorites plot along carbonaceous chondrite anhydrous mineral (CCAM) line with a slope of approximately 1 and show a range of Δ17O values (from approximately ?3 to ?6‰). One chondrule from each sample was found to contain O isotopically heterogeneous olivine, probably relict grains. Oxygen isotope compositions of magnetite in A‐881595 plot along a mass‐dependent fractionation line with a slope of 0.5 and show a range of Δ17O values from ?2.4‰ to ?1.1‰. Oxygen isotope compositions of magnetite in Watson‐002 cluster near the CCAM line and a Δ17O value of ?4.0‰ to ?2.9‰. These observations indicate that magnetite and chondrule olivine are in O isotope disequilibrium, and, therefore, not cogenetic. We infer that magnetite in CK chondrites formed by the oxidation of pre‐existing metal grains by an aqueous fluid during parent body alteration, in agreement with previous studies. The differences in Δ17O values of magnetite between Watson‐002 and A‐881595 can be attributed to their different thermal histories: the former experienced a higher degree of thermal metamorphism that led to the O isotope exchange between magnetite and adjacent silicates. 相似文献
200.