Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.     

Oceanic exchange variability across the continental slope west coast,South Island,New Zealand

Current observations taken at depths between 630 and 830 m from the west coast South Island continental slope exhibit one‐ to four‐weekly periodicities superimposed on the semi‐diurnal tide. These variable flows at 630 m and otter large, longer‐timescale events have a significart onshore/offshore component of flow which leads to a similar transport of alongshore momentum and heat.     

Improving Scatterometry Retrievals of Wind in Hurricanes Using Non-Simultaneous Passive Microwave Estimates of Precipitation and a Split-Step Advection/Convection Model

One of the current problems in the accurate estimation of over-ocean wind from scatterometry observations is the proper accounting for precipitation. Specific cases such as hurricanes are particularly difficult, because precipitation in the eye wall and rain bands can be quite heavy, and therefore, affect the scatterometer signatures so drastically that a category-4 hurricane can appear, to the scatterometer, to have category-1 winds. We have developed an approach to infer and account for the signature of the precipitation from non-simultaneous passive-microwave measurements of rain, with the help of geostationary IR measurements. In this note, we describe the basic approach, and the results of applying it to the data taken by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Microwave Imager measurements several hours before and after the QuikSCAT observation of Hurricane Rita in September 2005. We also describe how we are enhancing the approach with more realism in the assimilation of the IR information.     

RESURGENT MEXICAN PHOENIX*

ABSTRACT. Popular impressions of Phoenix, Arizona perpetuate the notion that this metropolitan area is an overwhelmingly Anglo place. We challenge this assertion and demonstrate that the city has substantial Mexican roots and is presently being shaped by a vibrant, resurgent Mexican population. Employing historical records, surveys, and landscape data, we articulate the Mexican character of early Phoenix and highlight how the revival of Mexican Phoenix has transformed the urban landscape. We then relate how Phoenix's Mexican population is a more nuanced regional subculture formed through both historical and contemporary connections with specific Mexican states. We conclude with a call for greater understanding of the internal heterogeneity of Mexicans in the United States and how this can inform our geographical interpretations of the growing Latinization of American cities.     

Erratum to: Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,Ghana

In this paper, the extent to which the potentially transit-dependent portion of the population is vulnerable to the effects of a hurricane is estimated. The vulnerability of an area is defined as a composite measure of the proportion of disadvantaged persons, distance to transit, and flooding potential of people within an area. Unlike past studies which have focused on the vulnerability of the population in relatively large geographic areas, this study estimates the vulnerability of the population in 30 m × 30 m areas as defined in the National Land Cover Database. Population estimates from the national census at block level are disaggregated to the 30 m × 30 m units using a modified dasymetric mapping method in ArcGIS. The modified mapping method assigns population to each small areal unit using weights estimated by regressing the area of each land use in a census block against the population in that block. The coefficients in the regression analysis are “weights” associating population with each land use, and are used to distribute the population in each census block to the small geographic units based on their land use. In a case study of New Orleans, the results show that some areas are not well served by the existing transit pickup locations, as evidenced by their high vulnerability scores. Reassignment of pickup point locations to cover higher vulnerability score areas was investigated using integer linear programming. The results show that the optimally located pickup points serve areas with a larger average vulnerability score than the current pickup points in the study area. The method appears to be helpful in identifying vulnerable areas that, subsequently, could receive improved hurricane evacuation service in the future.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of residential flood exposure in the Atlanta,Georgia metropolitan area

Natural Hazards - This research examines changes in residential built-environment flood exposure within the current boundaries of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan statistical area, by estimating...     

Climate change and the oceans – What does the future hold?

The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO₂ is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing.     

Mode coupling analysis and differential rotation in a flow driven by a precessing cylindrical container

We present a theoretical weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamics of an inviscid flow submitted to both rotation and precession of an unbounded cylindrical container, by considering the coupling of two Kelvin (inertial) waves. The parametric centrifugal instability known for this system is shown to saturate when one expands the Navier–Stokes equation to higher order in the assumed small precession parameter (ratio of precession to rotation frequencies) with the derivation of two coupled Landau equations suitable to describe the dynamics of the modes. It is shown that an azimuthal mean flow with differential rotation is generated by this modes coupling. The time evolution of the associated dynamical system is studied. These theoretical results can be compared with water experiments and also to some numerical simulations where viscosity and finite length effects cannot be neglected.