Recent trends in seasonal and annual precipitation indices in Tuscany (Italy)

Global warming alters the hydrological cycle since a rise in temperature leads to an increase in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere at a rate of about 7 %/°C. This fact can influence the global, but also local characteristics of precipitation, such as total amount and intensity. Therefore, it is important to study changes in rainfall regime in regions with complex orography, like Tuscany, where there are strong spatial gradients in precipitation amounts. The aim of this study is to look for temporal change in precipitation from 1955 to 2007 searching for spatial differences. Daily data of 21 meteorological stations were analyzed to identify trends in seasonal and annual precipitation indices. Cluster analysis applied to principal components was applied to identify homogeneous groups of stations. A decrease in precipitation was observed at annual time scale, during winter and spring, especially in northwestern areas. Wet days highlighted a decrease in all of Tuscany, due to the same seasons. In northern Tuscany, the decrease in rainfall amount was mainly determined by a lower frequency of rainy events which in turn caused a decrease in the occurrence of extreme daily precipitation events (75th, 90th, and 95th percentile). In central-southern Tuscany, no significant changes were observed except for an increase in precipitation fraction, due to extreme events and in mean daily total amount for wet days. These results are consistent with recent findings for the Mediterranean area and confirm the usefulness of cluster analysis for the analysis of the spatial distribution of precipitation.     

Spectral and fragility evaluations of retrofitted structures through strength reduction and enhanced damping

A retrofit procedure for existing buildings called the "weakening and damping technique" (WED) is presented in this paper. Weakening of structures can limit the maximum response accelerations during severe ground motions, but leads to an increase in the displacements or inter-story drifts. Added damping by using viscous dampers, on the other hand, reduces the inter-story drifts and has no significant effect on total accelerations, when structures behave inelastically. The weakening and damping technique addresses the two main causes for both structural and nonstructural damage in structures. The weakening retrofit is particularly suitable for structures that have overstressed components and weak brittle components. In this paper, the advantages of the WeD are verified by nonlinear dynamic analysis and simplified spectral approach that has been modified to fit structures with additional damping devices. A hospital structure located in the San Femando Valley in California is selected as a case study. The results from both analyses show that the retrofit solution is feasible to reduce both structural acceleration and displacement. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the retrofitting method using different combinations of performance thresholds in accelerations and displacements through fragility analysis.     

Additive effects of climate change and human hunting explain population decline and extinction in cave bears

Cave bears (Ursus spelaeus) are an iconic component of the European late Quaternary Ice Age megafauna. Recent demographic analyses based on cave bear mtDNA sequences and refined radiocarbon dating indicate that cave bear population size and genetic diversity started to decline some 50 kilo years ago (kya). Hence, neither the coldest phase of the last glaciation (started some 24 kya), nor the colonization of Europe by Palaeolithic hunters (started some 45 kya) coincides with the beginning of population decline. Here, we reconstructed cave bear climatic niche evolution through time. Then, we performed spatially explicit population viability analyses to assess cave bear demographics through time in response to climatic changes, human effects on bear survival and their combination. We found that climate change was responsible for a 10‐fold decrease in cave bear population size after 40 kya. However, climate change on its own could not explain U. spelaeus extinction at 24 kya. Additional negative effects consistent with human population expansion are required to explain both U. spelaeus' retreat from eastern Europe since 40 kya and its final extinction.     

Large dyke intrusion and small eruption: The December 24, 2018 Mt. Etna eruption imaged by Sentinel‐1 data

On December 24th, Mt. Etna volcano underwent a seismic crisis beneath the summit and upper southern flank of the volcano, accompanied by significant ash emission. Eruptive fissures opened at the base of summit craters, propagating SE‐wards. This lateral eruption lasted until December 27th. Despite the small eruption, seismic swarm and ground deformation were very strong. Sentinel‐1 interferograms show a wide and intense ground deformation with some additional features related to volcano‐tectonic structures. We inverted DInSAR data to characterise the magma intrusion. The resulting model indicates that a large dyke intruded but aborted its upraise at about the sea level; however, this big intrusion stretched the edifice, promoting the opening of the eruptive fissures fed by a shallower small dyke, and activating also several faults. This model highlights that a big intrusion beneath a structurally complex volcano represents a main issue even if the eruption is aborted.     

First integrals for the Kepler problem with linear drag

In this work we consider the Kepler problem with linear drag, and prove the existence of a continuous vector-valued first integral, obtained taking the limit as \(t\rightarrow +\infty \) of the Runge–Lenz vector. The norm of this first integral can be interpreted as an asymptotic eccentricity \(e_{\infty }\) with \(0\le e_{\infty } \le 1\). The orbits satisfying \(e_{\infty } <1\) approach the singularity by an elliptic spiral and the corresponding solutions \(x(t)=r(t)e^{i\theta (t)}\) have a norm r(t) that goes to zero like a negative exponential and an argument \(\theta (t)\) that goes to infinity like a positive exponential. In particular, the difference between consecutive times of passage through the pericenter, say \(T_{n+1} -T_n\), goes to zero as \(\frac{1}{n}\).     

ASPHAA: A GIS‐Based Algorithm to Calculate Cell Area on a Latitude‐Longitude (Geographic) Regular Grid

One characteristic of a Geographic Information System (GIS) is that it addresses the necessity to handle a large amount of data at multiple scales. Lands span over an area greater than 15 million km² all over the globe and information types are highly variable. In addition, multi‐scale analyses involve both spatial and temporal integration of datasets deriving from different sources. The currently worldwide used system of latitude and longitude coordinates could avoid limitations in data use due to biases and approximations. In this article a fast and reliable algorithm implemented in Arc Macro Language (AML) is presented to provide an automatic computation of the surface area of the cells in a regularly spaced longitude‐latitude (geographic) grid at different resolutions. The approach is based on the well‐known approximation of the spheroidal Earth's surface to the authalic (i.e. equal‐area) sphere. After verifying the algorithm's strength by comparison with a numerical solution for the reference spheroidal model, specific case studies are introduced to evaluate the differences when switching from geographic to projected coordinate systems. This is done at different resolutions and using different formulations to calculate cell areas. Even if the percentage differences are low, they become relevant when reported in absolute terms (hectares).     

The role of structural inheritance in continental break-up and exhumation of Alpine Tethyan mantle(Canavese Zone,Western Alps)

The Canavese Zone(CZ)in the Western Alps represents the remnant of the distal passive margin of the Adria microplate,which was stretched and thinned during the Jurassic opening of the Alpine Tethys.Through detailed geological mapping,stratigraphic and structural analyses,we document that the continental break-up of Pangea and tectonic dismemberment of the Adria distal margin,up to mantle rocks exhumation and oceanization,did not simply result from the syn-rift Jurassic extension but was strongly favored by older structu ral inheritances(the Proto-Canavese Shear Zone),which controlled earlier lithospheric weakness.Our findings allowed to redefine in detail(i)the tectono-stratigraphic setting of the Variscan metamorphic basement and the Late Carbonife rous to Early Cretaceous CZ succession,(ii)the role played by inherited Late Carboniferous to Early Triassic structures and(iii)the significance of the CZ in the geodynamic evolution of the Alpine Tethys.The large amount of extensional displacement and crustal thinning occurred during different pulses of Late Carbonife rous-Early Triassic strike-slip tectonics is wellconsistent with the role played by long-lived regional-scale wrench faults(e.g.,the East-Variscan Shear Zone),suggesting a re-discussion of models of mantle exhumation driven by low-angle detachment faults as unique efficient mechanism in stretching and thinning continental crust.     

Real-time assimilation of streamflow observations into a hydrological routing model: effects of model structures and updating methods

This paper comparatively assesses the performance of five data assimilation techniques for three-parameter Muskingum routing with a spatially lumped or distributed model structure. The assimilation techniques used include direct insertion (DI), nudging scheme (NS), Kalman filter (KF), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF), which are applied to river reaches in Texas and Louisiana, USA. For both lumped and distributed routing, results from KF, EnKF and AEnKF are sensitive to the error specification. As expected, DI outperformed the other models in the case of lumped modelling, while in distributed routing, KF approaches, particularly AEnKF and EnKF, performed better than DI or nudging, reflecting the benefit of updating distributed states through error covariance modelling in KF approaches. The results of this work would be useful in setting up data assimilation systems that employ increasingly abundant real-time observations using distributed hydrological routing models.     

Spatial pattern analysis using hybrid models: an application to the Hellenic seismicity

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters and the spatial distribution of their epicentres generally shows diverse interaction structures at different spatial scales. In this paper, we use a multi-scale point pattern model to describe the main seismicity in the Hellenic area over the last 10 years. We analyze the interaction between events and the relationship with geological information of the study area, using hybrid models as proposed by Baddeley et al. (2013). In our analysis, we find two competing suitable hybrid models, one with a full parametric structure and the other one based on nonparametric kernel estimators for the spatial inhomogeneity.     

Integrated Electrical Resistivity Tomography and Ground Penetrating Radar Measurements Applied to Tomb Detection

The integrated use of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements, and in particular the joint analysis of 2D and 3D data, can represent a valid solution for target identification at complex archaeological sites. A good example, in this respect, is given by the case study of a Phoenician–Punic necropolis in the archaeological site of Nora, in southern Sardinia (Italy), where GPR and ERT measurements were collected before site excavation. In this specific case, the mix of soil and air in the buried chambers, as well as the orientation and the complex spatial distribution of these structures into the sandstone bedrock, generated a number of anomalies difficult to interpret only using 2D results. Only the integration of all GPR and ERT data in a 3D view, and the comparison with archaeological evidence after the excavation, allowed a solid interpretation of geophysical anomalies visible in the 2D sections. Overall, this case study demonstrates the efficiency of the combined use of GPR and ERT acquisitions and shows how, in general, only the joint analysis of 2D data and in a 3D view can help the interpretation of the real distribution of the buried archaeological remains at similar archaeological complex sites.