Data preprocessing for river flow forecasting using neural networks: Wavelet transforms and data partitioning

The evaluation of surface water resources is a necessary input to solving water management problems. Neural network models have been trained to predict monthly runoff for the Tirso basin, located in Sardinia (Italy) at the S. Chiara section. Monthly time series data were available for 69 years and are characterized by non-stationarity and seasonal irregularity, which is typical of a Mediterranean weather regime. This paper investigates the effects of data preprocessing on model performance using continuous and discrete wavelet transforms and data partitioning. The results showed that networks trained with pre-processed data performed better than networks trained on undecomposed, noisy raw signals. In particular, the best results were obtained using the data partitioning technique.     

On the Use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar Data for Monitoring and Forecasting Natural Hazards

Mathematical Geosciences - Recent advances in satellite technologies, statistical and mathematical models, and computational resources have paved the way for operational use of satellite data in...     

Evaluation of out‐of‐plane seismic performance of column‐to‐column precast concrete cladding panels in one‐storey industrial buildings

Recent earthquakes in Italy (L'Aquila 2009 and Emilia 2012) highlighted the vulnerability of precast cladding panels, typically associated with a connection system not designed to account for displacement and rotation compatibility between the panels and the supporting structure. Experimental investigations were performed in the past to investigate the in‐plane performance of cladding panels and design recommendations have been made accordingly; however, in the case of out‐of‐plane seismic loads, the load demand is commonly evaluated in the design practice by means of formulations for nonstructural components. This paper summarizes the results obtained from parametric analyses conducted to estimate the out‐of‐plane load demand in column‐to‐column cladding panels typical of one‐storey commercial and industrial buildings. Empirical equations suitable for both new and existing panels are proposed and compared with the design equations given in Eurocode 8 and ASCE 7. The paper also considers the effects of the development of plastic hinges at the column base and of the roof flexibility on the load demand in panel‐to‐column connections. The roof flexibility may generate the torsion of the panels; consequently, an analytical procedure to account for such effects is proposed. Finally, general design recommendations are made.     

Nursery areas of red mullet (Mullus barbatus), hake (Merluccius merluccius) and deep-water rose shrimp (Parapenaeus longirostris) in the Eastern-Central Mediterranean Sea

The spatial pattern of the nursery areas of red mullet (Mullus barbatus), hake (Merluccius merluccius) (Linnaeus, 1758) and deep-water rose shrimp (Parapenaeus longirostris) (Lucas, 1846) was studied in the South Adriatic and North Ionian Seas (Eastern-Central Mediterranean) applying geostatistical techniques and data from time series trawl surveys conducted in the area. The analysed variables were: R (number of recruits/km²) and R/Tot (fraction of recruits on the total sampled population). The structural analysis showed a spatial pattern of both variables characterized by continuity on a small scale. Predictions of nursery area localization with probability of finding recruits at different threshold values were obtained through median indicator kriging. For the red mullet the nurseries were mainly identified in the South Adriatic Sea off the Gargano peninsula and between Molfetta and Monopoli within 50 m in depth. The main concentration of hake juveniles was found to be between 100 and 200 m in depth along the Gargano peninsula and between Otranto and Santa Maria di Leuca, where a nursery of deep-water rose shrimp was also detected. An overlapping depth, between 100 and 200 m, was identified for hake and deep-water rose shrimp nurseries. Protection of these areas through limitations of fishing pressure is discussed.     

Nassarius corniculus (Olivi, 1792) (Caenogastropoda: Nassariidae): a model of environmental complexity of Italian brackish and marine habitats

Strong environmental selection may give rise to complex species and/or camouflage the presence of sibling species in brackish waters. The prosobranch gastropod Nassarius corniculus (Olivi, 1792) is a common scavenger widely distributed in Mediterranean brackish and marine areas. We examined the morphological and molecular features of N. corniculus populations and related these features to the environmental complexity of brackish habitats. Morphological data revealed differences in radular features between specimens collected from two Mediterranean lagoons (Lake Faro, Messina, Sicily and Lake Fusaro, Gulf of Gaeta). Analysis of with the mitochondrial marker mt 16S rRNA revealed genetic variability within the Lake Faro population but did not show the different geographic structure between the two lagoons indicated by morphological data. We also predicted the gene flow of N. corniculus by comparing populations of two marine areas (Faro Sea and Ischia).     

Precipitable water evaluations from infrared sun‐photometric measurements analyzed using the atmospheric hygrometry technique

Measurements of direct solar irradiance were taken employing 4 different sun‐photometers at near infrared wavelengths, suitable for use in atmospheric hygrometry. This technique utilising a set of spectral ratios, in and out of selected water vapour absorption bands, was applied to the measurements to obtain accurate evaluations of precipitable water. For all the hygrometric ratios given by the 4 sun‐photometers used at the 3 stations of Sagres, Monchique and Mt. Foia, during the CLEARCOLUMN experiment, we determined the calibration curves by correcting them for the Rayleigh scattering effects and, then, plotting the natural logarithms of such corrected ratios versus the square root of the water vapour mass present along the atmospheric slant path. The regression lines drawn for the various scatter diagrams were estimated to give evaluations of precipitable water with an uncertainty of less than 5%, 3% and 10% at the 3 stations, respectively. The calibration curves of the sun‐photometer located at the Sagres station were determined using the precipitable water evaluations obtained from the local radiosounding measurements taken on 5 clear‐sky days. Those of the sun‐photometers used at the Monchique and Mt. Foia stations were instead determined through intercomparison between subsets of measurements simultaneously taken with various instruments at Sagres and Mt. Foia. Using these calibration curves, we examined all the field measurements determining the time‐patterns of precipitable water at the 3 stations. During the period from 16 June to 25 July 1997, precipitable water was found to vary between 1.1 and 3.7 g cm⁻² at the Sagres station (with an accuracy within ±13%), between 1.0 and 2.8 g cm⁻² at Monchique (±11%) and between 0.8 and 3.0 g cm⁻² at the top of Mt. Foia (±26%).     

Analytical development of the lunisolar disturbing function and the critical inclination secular resonance

We provide a detailed derivation of the analytical expansion of the lunar and solar disturbing functions. Although there exist several papers on this topic, many derivations contain mistakes in the final expansion or rather (just) in the proof, thereby necessitating a recasting and correction of the original derivation. In this work, we provide a self-consistent and definite form of the lunisolar expansion. We start with Kaula’s expansion of the disturbing function in terms of the equatorial elements of both the perturbed and perturbing bodies. Then we give a detailed proof of Lane’s expansion, in which the elements of the Moon are referred to the ecliptic plane. Using this approach the inclination of the Moon becomes nearly constant, while the argument of perihelion, the longitude of the ascending node, and the mean anomaly vary linearly with time. We make a comparison between the different expansions and we profit from such discussion to point out some mistakes in the existing literature, which might compromise the correctness of the results. As an application, we analyze the long-term motion of the highly elliptical and critically-inclined Molniya orbits subject to quadrupolar gravitational interactions. The analytical expansions presented herein are very powerful with respect to dynamical studies based on Cartesian equations, because they quickly allow for a more holistic and intuitively understandable picture of the dynamics.     

Cokriging for multivariate Hilbert space valued random fields: application to multi-fidelity computer code emulation

In this paper we propose Universal trace co-kriging, a novel methodology for interpolation of multivariate Hilbert space valued functional data. Such data commonly arises in multi-fidelity numerical modeling of the subsurface and it is a part of many modern uncertainty quantification studies. Besides theoretical developments we also present methodological evaluation and comparisons with the recently published projection based approach by Bohorquez et al. (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31(1):53–70, 2016.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1266-y). Our evaluations and analyses were performed on synthetic (oil reservoir) and real field (uranium contamination) subsurface uncertainty quantification case studies. Monte Carlo analyses were conducted to draw important conclusions and to provide practical guidelines for all future practitioners.     

A multidisciplinary procedure to evaluate and optimize the efficacy of hydraulic barriers in contaminated sites: a case study in Northern Italy

In the last decades, hydraulic barriers have been activated in a large number of polluted sites with the aim of preventing groundwater pollution outside the contaminated area. From a regulatory point of view, there is the need of evaluating the efficacy of these barriers. For this reason, the goal of the present study is to apply a coupled experimental modelling approach aimed at evaluating the efficacy of the barrier and providing management strategies. In particular, a case study in Italy is investigated. The study case is of main interest because of its complexity due to a heterogeneous aquifer and the presence of surface water that interacts with the below aquifer. The study has been carried out through the experimental characterization of the aquifer system (coupling the classic stratigraphic techniques with the results of radiocarbon dating, as well as through pumping and injection tests) and its hydrogeological behaviour (by means of hydraulic- and the stream-head measurements, as well as some isotopic investigations), and the implementation of a numerical model (through MODFLOW 2005). The results show the effectiveness of the coupled experimental modelling approach to analyse and simulate the hydrodynamics within the test aquifer system, as well as to evaluate the efficacy of the hydraulic barrier. Based on the results of the numerical model, easy solutions were designed to manage the barrier.     

Some properties of the dumbbell satellite attitude dynamics

The dumbbell satellite is a simple structure consisting of two point masses connected by a massless rod. We assume that it moves around the planet whose gravity field is approximated by the field of the attracting center. The distance between the point masses is assumed to be much smaller than the distance between the satellite’s center of mass and the attracting center, so that we can neglect the influence of the attitude dynamics on the motion of the center of mass and treat it as an unperturbed Keplerian one. Our aim is to study the satellite’s attitude dynamics. When the center of mass moves on a circular orbit, one can find a stable relative equilibrium in which the satellite is permanently elongated along the line joining the center of mass with the attracting center (the so called local vertical). In case of elliptic orbits, there are no stable equilibrium positions even for small values of the eccentricity. However, planar periodic motions are determined, where the satellite oscillates around the local vertical in such a way that the point masses do not leave the orbital plane. We prove analytically that these planar periodic motions are unstable with respect to out-of-plane perturbations (a result known from numerical investigations cf. Beletsky and Levin Adv Astronaut Sci 83, 1993). We provide also both analytical and numerical evidences of the existence of stable spatial periodic motions.