Mortality by cause of death in Colombia: a local analysis using spatial econometrics

Journal of Geographical Systems - Colombia is undergoing major changes in mortality patterns. National- and department-level cause-specific analyses have previously been carried out, but very...     

Modeling ground deformations of Panarea volcano hydrothermal/geothermal system (Aeolian Islands, Italy) from GPS data

Panarea volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) was considered extinct until November 3, 2002, when a submarine gas eruption began in the area of the islets of Lisca Bianca, Bottaro, Lisca Nera, Dattilo, and Panarelli, about 2.5 km east of Panarea Island. The gas eruption decreased to a state of low degassing by July 2003. Before 2002, the activity of Panarea volcano was characterized by mild degassing of hydrothermal fluid. The compositions of the 2002 gases and their isotopic signatures suggested that the emissions originated from a hydrothermal/geothermal reservoir fed by magmatic fluids. We investigate crustal deformation of Panarea volcano using the global positioning system (GPS) velocity field obtained by the combination of continuous and episodic site observations of the Panarea GPS network in the time span 1995–2007. We present a combined model of Okada sources, which explains the GPS results acquired in the area from December 2002. The kinematics of Panarea volcano show two distinct active crustal domains characterized by different styles of horizontal deformation, supported also by volcanological and structural evidence. Subsidence on order of several millimeters/year is affecting the entire Panarea volcano, and a shortening of 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹ has been estimated in the Islets area. Our model reveals that the degassing intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by geophysical-geochemical changes within the hydrothermal/geothermal system. These variations may be triggered by changes in the regional stress field as suggested by the geophysical and volcanological events which occurred in 2002 in the Southern Tyrrhenian area.     

A global perspective on African climate

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.     

Physical explanations of variations in river meander migration rates from model comparison

In meandering rivers, the local channel migration rate increases with increasing bend sharpness until it reaches a maximum at a certain critical value of the bend sharpness. Beyond this critical value, the migration rate decreases if bend sharpness increases. Similarly, reach‐averaged migration rates attain a maximum at a certain river sinuosity. This work investigates the physics of these phenomena by comparing the results of two physics‐based models of different complexity, in which the migration rates are proportional to the near‐bank flow velocity excess. In the computational tests the river was allowed to meander progressively, starting from an almost straight planimetry. Both models reproduced the observed peak in the curve describing the local migration rate as a function of the ratio radius of curvature‐channel width (R/B), with a rising limb at lower R/B values and a falling limb at higher R/B values. The rising limb can be explained by the decrease in relative lag distance between near‐bank flow velocity and forcing curvature as R/B increases. The falling limb results from the decrease in local channel curvature and near‐bank flow velocity excess. Since the models do not include flow separation, the results indicate that this phenomenon is not needed to explain the decrease of channel migration rates in sharp bends. The models reproduced also the peak in the curve describing the reach‐averaged migration rates as a function of river sinuosity The increase and then decrease of reach‐averaged migration rates as sinuosity increases appears to be mainly caused by the variation of the reach‐averaged value of the ratio R/B. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biological invasions as a component of global change in stressed marine ecosystems

Biological invasions in marine environment are the lesser known aspect of global change. However, recent events which occurred in the Mediterranean Sea demonstrate that they represent a serious ecological and economical menace leading to biodiversity loss, ecosystem unbalancing, fishery and tourism impairment. In this paper we review marine bioinvasions using examples taken from the Mediterranean/Black Sea region. Particular attention is given to the environmental status of the receiving area as a fundamental pre-requisite for the colonisation success of alien species. The spread of the tropical algae belonging to the genus Caulerpa in the northwestern basin of the Mediterranean Sea has been facilitated by pre-existing conditions of instability of the Posidonia oceanica endemic ecosystem in relation to stress of both natural and anthropogenic origin. Human interventions caused long-term modification in the Black Sea environment, preparing a fertile ground for mass bioinvasion of aquatic nuisance species which, in some cases, altered the original equilibrium of the entire basin. Finally, the Venice lagoon is presented as the third example of an environment subjected to high propagule pressure and anthropogenic forcing and bearing the higher "diversity" of non-indigenous species compared to the other Mediterranean lagoons. Stressed environments are easily colonised by alien species; understanding the links between human and natural disturbance and massive development of non-indigenous species will help prevent marine bioinvasions, that are already favoured by global oceanic trade.     

Holocene environmental instability in the wetland north of the Tiber delta (Rome,Italy): sea-lake-man interactions

Combined analyses of pollen, seeds, woods, micro-charcoal and non-pollen palynomorphs from Stagno di Maccarese, an artificially dried out coastal basin north of the Tiber delta now occupied by the Fiumicino Airport (Rome, Italy), document marked vegetation and environmental changes during the last 8300 years. Between 8300 and 5400 cal. a BP dense mixed deciduous and evergreen forests surrounded a eutrophic freshwater basin. An abrupt change around 5400 cal. a BP marks the transition to a marshy environment, due to a lowering of the water table. An increase of cereals and micro-charcoals matches the presence of a nearby Eneolithic settlement. Between 5100 and 2900 cal. a BP there is a remarkable expansion of riparian trees, indicating an increase of the water level. Between 2900 and 2000 cal. a BP, a new development of marshlands points to a progressive lowering of the lake. After 2000 cal. a BP, during the Roman exploitation of the area, an expansion of arboreal vegetation is recorded, characterized by evergreen and deciduous oak-dominated forests, while an extensive chenopods marshland matches the presence of saltworks. On the whole, the Stagno di Maccarese area appears very unstable, due to changes in lake level, introgression of marine water, eutrophic phases, flood events, desiccations and openings of the forest vegetation.     

The 3 June 1994 Java Tsunami: A Post-Event Survey of the Coastal Effects

The paper is a report of the field campaign undertaken by an international team (Italian, French and Indonesian) a few weeks after the occurrence of a tsunami invading the south-eastern coast of Java (Indonesia) and it complements the results of a concurrent field survey by Asian and USA researchers. The tsunamigenic earthquake occurred on 3 of June 1994 in the Indian Ocean about 200 km south of Java. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in some coastal villages. The main purpose of the survey was to measure the inundation and the runup values as well as to ascertain the possible morphological changes caused by the wave attacks. Attention was particularly focussed on the most affected districts, that is Lumajang, Jember and Banyuwangi in Java, although also the districts of Negera, Tebanan and Denpasar in Bali were examined. The most severe damage was observed in the Banyuwangi district, where the villages of Rajekwesi, Pancer and Lampon were almost completely levelled by the violent waves. Most places were hit by three significant waves with documented wave height often exceeding 5 m. The maximum runup value (9.50 m) was measured at Rajekwesi, where also the most impressive erosion phenomena could be found. In contrast, only in one place of the neighbouring island of Bali was there a slight tsunami, the rest of the island being practically unaffected.