Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

Carbon isotopic fractionation during a mesocosm bloom experiment dominated by Emiliania huxleyi: Effects of CO2 concentration and primary production

We investigated the effect of CO₂ and primary production on the carbon isotopic fractionation of alkenones and particulate organic matter (POC) during a natural phytoplankton bloom dominated by the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi. In nine semi-closed mesocosms (∼11 m³ each), three different CO₂ partial pressures (pCO₂) in triplicate represented glacial (∼180 ppmv CO₂), present (∼380 ppmv CO₂), and year 2100 (∼710 ppmv CO₂) CO₂ conditions. The largest shift in alkenone isotopic composition (4-5‰) occurred during the exponential growth phase, regardless of the CO₂ concentration in the respective treatment. Despite the difference of ∼500 ppmv, the influence of pCO₂ on isotopic fractionation was marginal (1-2‰). During the stationary phase, E. huxleyi continued to produce alkenones, accumulating cellular concentrations almost four times higher than those of exponentially dividing cells. Our isotope data indicate that, while alkenone production was maintained, the interaction of carbon source and cellular uptake dynamics by E. huxleyi reached a steady state. During stationary phase, we further observed a remarkable increase in the difference between δ¹³C of bulk organic matter and of alkenones spanning 7-12‰. We suggest that this phenomenon is caused mainly by a combination of extracellular release of ¹³C-enriched polysaccharides and subsequent particle aggregation induced by the production of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP).     

Interpreting the Ca isotope record of marine biogenic carbonates

An 18 million year record of the Ca isotopic composition (δ^44/42Ca) of planktonic foraminiferans from ODP site 925, in the Atlantic, on the Ceara Rise, provides the opportunity for critical analysis of Ca isotope-based reconstructions of the Ca cycle. δ^44/42Ca in this record averages +0.37 ± 0.05 (1σ SD) and ranges from +0.21‰ to +0.52‰. The record is a good match to previously published Neogene Ca isotope records based on foraminiferans, but is not similar to the record based on bulk carbonates, which has values that are as much as 0.25‰ lower. Bulk carbonate and planktonic foraminiferans from core tops differ slightly in their δ^44/42Ca (i.e., by 0.06 ± 0.06‰ (n = 5)), while the difference between bulk carbonate and foraminiferan values further back in time is markedly larger, leaving open the question of the cause of the difference. Modeling the global Ca cycle from downcore variations in δ^44/42Ca by assuming fixed values for the isotopic composition of weathering inputs (δ^44/42Ca_w) and for isotope fractionation associated with the production of carbonate sediments (Δ_sed) results in unrealistically large variations in the total mass of Ca²⁺ in the oceans over the Neogene. Alternatively, variations of ±0.05‰ in the Ca isotope composition of weathering inputs or in the extent of fractionation of Ca isotopes during calcareous sediment formation could entirely account for variations in the Ca isotopic composition of marine carbonates. Ca isotope fractionation during continental weathering, such as has been recently observed, could easily result in variations in δ^44/42Ca_w of a few tenths of permil. Likewise a difference in the fractionation factors associated with aragonite versus calcite formation could drive shifts in Δ_sed of tenths of permil with shifts in the relative output of calcite and aragonite from the ocean. Until better constraints on variations in δ^44/42Ca_w and Δ_sed have been established, modeling the Ca²⁺ content of seawater from Ca isotope curves should be approached cautiously.     

The Dark Matter Problem

In these notes I will briefly summarize our knowledge about the dark matter problem, and emphasize the corresponding dynamical aspects. This covers a wide area of research, so I have been selective, and have concentrated on the subject of dark matter in nearby galaxies, in particular spirals. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Lead and copper in the waters of Raritan and Lower New York Bays

A survey of waters adjacent to this heavily urbanized and industrialized region showed concentrations of copper, 65 μg l.^?1 to be the highest reported to date for estuarine waters, and lead up to 13.9 μg l.^?1 Correlations between distributions of dissolved and total metal concentration in the water column, hydrography, and metal in the sediment were related to benthic studies in this area. Laboratory studies are cited which show the potential for adverse effects on marine animals at these metal concentrations.     

Environmental changes during the past 2000 years in north-central Wisconsin: Analysis of pollen,charcoal, and seeds from varved lake sediments

A 2000-year accumulation of varved sediments from Hell's Kitchen Lake in north-central Wisconsin was analyzed for pollen, charcoal, and seeds. The varves provided an accurate time scale for the study. The pollen record indicates changes on two different time scales. Short-term changes lasting several decades appear to be superimposed on long-term changes lasting several centuries. The short-term changes are related to individual fires, and the long-term changes result from increases or decreases in the frequency of these perturbations. From 2000 to 1150 years ago the average interval between fires was about 100 years, and from 1150 to 120 years ago the interval increased to about 140 years. Evidence from pollen, seeds, and charcoal at Hell's Kitchen Lake suggests that at least two “moist” intervals occurred during the past 2000 years, one between 2000 and 1700 years ago and the other between 600 and 100 years ago. A third but minor “moist” period occurred about 1150 to 850 years ago. A pollen and seed diagram shows that these intervals are characterized by increased percentages of white pine pollen, hemlock pollen, and yellow birch seeds, and by decreased levels of charcoal. The “dry” interval of 1700 to 1150 years ago is characterized by increased percentages of paper birch seeds, oak pollen, and aspen pollen, along with high levels of charcoal. The times of climatic change indicated at Hell's Kitchen Lake are nearly synchronous with those based on studies of tree rings, soils, glacial activity, and other pollen studies from various regions of North America, but the direction of these inferred changes is not always the same. This result suggests that the long-wave pattern of the general circulation has been variable during the past 2000 years.     

Paleobotany of Wisconsinan interstadials, eastern Great Lakes region, North America

This study concerns the pollen and plant macrofossils from Mid-Wisconsinan Interstadial sites within the Wisconsinan ice margin in eastern North America. The time period covered is from about 55,000 years BP to 22,500 years BP, an interval much longer than the postglacial. Sediments examined are principally those of large lakes deposited in the Erie and Ontario basins during intervals of ice retreat.The Port Talbot I Interval (from about 55,000 to 50,000 years BP) in the Erie basin is characterized by pollen assemblages alternating from Pinus-dominated zones to ones with abundant Pinus, Quercus, and nonarboreal pollen. These assemblages are interpreted as indicating relatively warm and dry conditions. Mean July temperatures fluctuated between 15 and 21°C.During the succeeding Port Talbot II Interval and Plum Point Interstadial, in both the Erie and Ontario basins, pollen assemblages are characterized by dominant Pinus and Picea. Characteristic macrofossils include needles of the boreal Picea and Larix and leaves of species with a more northerly distribution, such as Dryas integrifolia, Betula glandulosa var. glandulosa, Vaccinium uliginosum var. alpinum, and Salix herbacea. These fossil assemblages are interpreted as indicating cooler and moister conditions in a forest-tundra environment. Mean July temperatures fluctuated between 10 and 15°C during the Port Talbot II Interval and Plum Point Interstadial.     

Sedimentation in Lake Biel,an eutrophic,hard-water lake in northwestern Switzerland

A 2-year study of sedimentation in Lake Biel reveals that three major factors can account for the spatial and temporal patterns of tripton sedimentation. Allochthonous inputs of particulate matter mostly derived from the Aare river during spring snowmelt and other high-water periods, provide about 50% of the carbonate and 50% of the siliceous matter collected in sediment traps. Phytoplankton activity in this eutrophic, hard-water lake accounts for the rest of the carbonate and siliceous matter, the latter being mostly diatom frustules. Sedimentation rates are thus highest during periods of maximum river flooding, maximum phytoplankton activity and following the breakdown of the thermocline, at which time trapped particles settle out. Resuspension of sediment is important in at least one basin. Resolution of carbonate appears to be minor.     

On steep isogradic surfaces in the Simplon area

The Simplon tunnel (19.7 km long) in the Central Alps crosses, at an altitude of 640–700 m, a mountain chain that culminates in Monte Leone (3 553 m). Along the tunnel axis the metamorphic grade of Mesozoic sediments, recrystallized during the Lepontine phase of the Alpine orogenesis, increases from NW to SE. Investigations on rock samples from the tunnel and from surface exposures give information in three dimensions on conditions during the culmination of Alpine regional metamorphism in the Simplon group. The succession of isograds from km 3 from the NW entrance of the tunnel in SE direction is: First occurrence of biotite, of garnet, last occurrence of albite in paragenesis with calcite, entry of feldspars of the peristerite gap and of oligoclase alone in calc-schists, marbles and amphibolites, coming in of plagioclase An > 30 associated with calcite, first occurrence of staurolite and kyanite, entry of tremolite and calcite, occurrence of plagioclase An >50 in calcschists. Correlation of the data from tunnel and surface samples shows that, in the northwestern and central part of the section, the isogradic surfaces are steeply inclined to the NW, the average dip is 60–75°, with uncertainty between 55 and 90°. In the southeastern part of the section the isogradic surfaces are overturned and dip to the E. No observations indicate gently inclined isogradic surfaces. Geological evidence excludes postmetamorphic tilting of originally subhorizontal isogradic surfaces in such a scale. It is assumed that, during the Lepontine phase, the isobaric surfaces have been subhorizontal, but that the isotherms (which roughly correspond to isograds) have formed angles greater than 45° with isobars. During the culmination of metamorphism vertical and lateral temperature gradients differed considerably from place to place in the Simplon area, and gradually changed also in one and the same direction. The Simplon area is situated near the western edge of the high-grade metamorphic zones of the Ticino complex. The metamorphic conditions described are believed to have been strongly influenced by the eastern adjacent vast thermal bulge of the Central Alps. Thus, not only in Val Bregaglia, with its quite different geological environment, at the E end of the highgrade zone and of the same thermal antiform, but also in the Simplon area in the W, isogradic surfaces are steeply inclined.     

Zeitgebundene Erzlagerstätten

Proceeding from the observation that in the Early Paleozoic there is a time-bound, world-wide distributed ore deposit type with scheelite in volcanic-sedimentary series, the question concerning a systematic development of ore deposits connected with an evolution of the earth's crust and mantle is discussed. A schematic model of this development is constructed, which, beginning with a still thin, primeval crust, by way of time-bound stages as for instance greenstone belts and mobile zones, receiving abundant material introduction from juvenile volcanism accompanied with corresponding time-bound ores, leads to the “Assynthic” revolution, giving rise to a crust which is essentially dependent on selfsupport by sedimentary reworking and palingenic magmatism. During the initial “juvenile” period as well as during the palingenic there is significant participation of sedimentary processes, in dependence upon time-bound evolution of the atmosphere and biosphere, for material transport, redeposition and renewed concentration. During the “palingenic” stage the crust is only episodically supplied with mantle material along world-wide volcanic, tectonic lineaments, whereby new ore types, for example the scheelite ores of the Early Paleozoic or the copper-molybdenum ores at the Mesozoic-Cenozoic transition, experience their time-bound formation.