Prediction of the spatial distribution of the modified mercalli intensity using neural networks

This paper presents the development of an adaptive, non-parametric forecast model for the direct prediction of the spatial distribution of the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) corresponding to an earthquake scenario. The model is based on recent advances in neural networks computation, and is constructed through supervised learning using historical earthquake and regional geological data as training sets. A MMI forecast model for moderate earthquakes with magnitudes between 6 and 7 was developed based on data from the Loma Prieta, Coalinga and Morgan Hill earthquakes. For these data sets, the neural networks forecast model is shown to have excellent data synthesis capability; multiple sets of data can be encapsulated by a relatively simple network architecture. Limited comparison of forecasts made by the neural networks model and conventional models demonstrates that improved accuracy can be achieved. Implementation and operational advantages of the neural networks approach such as general input features, minimum preconceived knowledge of the data sets, the ability to learn and to adapt incrementally and the autonomous and automatic synthesis of the structure underlying the data sets, have been illustrated.     

Two-stage prograde and retrograde Variscan metamorphism of glaucophane-eclogites, blueschists and greenschists from Ile de Groix (Brittany, France)

On Ile de Groix, Variscan metamorphic former tholeiitic and alkaline basalts occur as glaucophane-eclogites, blueschists and greenschists in isolated lenses and layers within metapelites. Whole-rock '¹⁸O_SMOW values of the metabasites show limited variations (10.4-12.0‰) and no systematic differences among rock types and metamorphic grades. This provides no argument for large-scale blueschist-to-greenschist transformation driven by infiltration of externally derived fluids. Metamorphic mineralogical changes should have been triggered by internal fluids. Element variations in interlayered blue- and greenschists can be attributed to magmatic fractionation. Assemblages with garnet, clinopyroxene and glaucophane of a high-pressure/low-temperature (HP-LT) metamorphism M1, and NaCa-amphiboles (barroisite, magnesiohornblende, actinolite) of a medium-pressure/medium-temperature metamorphism M2 crystallized during deformation D1. Detailed core-rim zonation profiles display increasing and then decreasing Al^IV in glaucophane of M1. NaCa-amphiboles of M2, mantling glaucophane and crystallized in porphyroblasts, show first increasing, then decreasing, Al^IV and Al^VI. Empirically calibrated thermobarometers allowed P-T path reconstructions. In glaucophane-eclogites of a metamorphic zone I, a prograde evolution to M1 peak conditions at 400-500°C/10-12 kbar was followed by a retrograde P-T path within the glaucophane stability field. The subsequent M2 evolution was again prograde up to >600°C at 8 kbar and then retrograde. Similarly, in metamorphic zones II and III, prograde and retrograde paths of M1 and M2 at lower maximal temperatures and pressures exist. The almost complete metamorphic cycle during M2 signalizes that the HP-LT rocks escaped from an early erosion by a moderate second burial event and explains the long-lasting slow uplift with low average cooling rates.     

Determining the dispersibility of South Louisiana crude oil by eight oil dispersant products listed on the NCP Product Schedule

We recently conducted a laboratory study to measure the dispersion effectiveness of eight dispersants currently listed on the National Contingency Plan Product Schedule. Results are useful in determining how many commercial dispersant products would have been effective for use on South Louisiana crude oil in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The test used was a modification of the Baffled Flask Test (BFT), which is being proposed to replace the current Swirling Flask Test (SFT). The modifications of the BFT in this study included use of one oil rather than two, increasing replication from 4 runs to 6, and testing at two temperatures, 5 °C and 25 °C. Results indicated that temperature was not as critical a variable as the literature suggested, likely because of the low viscosity and light weight of the SLC. Of the eight dispersants tested, only three gave satisfactory results in the laboratory flasks at both temperatures.     

Hydrogeological and multi-isotopic approach to define nitrate pollution and denitrification processes in a coastal aquifer (Sardinia,Italy)

Agricultural coastal areas are frequently affected by the superimposition of various processes, with a combination of anthropogenic and natural sources, which degrade groundwater quality. In the coastal multi-aquifer system of Arborea (Italy)—a reclaimed morass area identified as a nitrate vulnerable zone, according to Nitrate Directive 91/676/EEC—intensive agricultural and livestock activities contribute to substantial nitrate contamination. For this reason, the area can be considered a bench test for tuning an appropriate methodology aiming to trace the nitrate contamination in different conditions. An approach combining environmental isotopes, water quality and hydrogeological indicators was therefore used to understand the origins and attenuation mechanisms of nitrate pollution and to define the relationship between contaminant and groundwater flow dynamics through the multi-aquifer characterized by sandy (SHU), alluvial (AHU), and volcanic hydrogeological (VHU) units. Various groundwater chemical pathways were consistent with both different nitrogen sources and groundwater dynamics. Isotope composition suggests a mixed source for nitrate (organic and synthetic fertilizer), especially for the AHU and SHU groundwater. Moreover, marked heterotrophic denitrification and sulfate reduction processes were detected; although, for the contamination related to synthetic fertilizer, the attenuation was inefficient at removing NO₃^? to less than the human consumption threshold of 50 mg/L. Various factors contributed to control the distribution of the redox processes, such as the availability of carbon sources (organic fertilizer and the presence of lagoon-deposited aquitards), well depth, and groundwater flow paths. The characterization of these processes supports water-resource management plans, future actions, and regulations, particularly in nitrate vulnerable zones.     

Distribution and movement of shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum) in the Chesapeake Bay

During a reward program for Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus), 40 federally endangered shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum) were captured and reported by commercial fishers between January 1996 and January 2000 from the Chesapeake Bay. Since this is more than double the number of published records of shortnose sturgeon in the Chesapeake Bay between 1876 and 1995, little information has been available on distributions and movement. We used fishery dependent data collected during the reward program to determine the distribution of shortnose sturgeon in the Chesapeake Bay. Sonically-tagged shortnose sturgeon in the Chesapeake Bay and Delaware River were tracked to determine if individuals swim through the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Shortnose sturgeon were primarily distributed within the upper Chesapeake Bay. The movements of one individual, tagged within the Chesapeake Bay and later relocated in the canal and Delaware River, indicated that individuals traverse the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal.     

Adaptive behaviours of the jellyfish Aurelia labiata in Roscoe Bay on the west coast of Canada

Four behaviours of mature Aurelia labiata medusae (Scyphozoa) were observed. Touching the manubrium with a soft, hollow, silicone rubber ball or a foam rubber ball caused medusae at a depth of 1 m to swim to the surface. Dense aggregations of medusae did not form within 5 m of rock walls. Medusae did not swim into water with salinity < 20 parts per thousand. Sunlight-stimulated directional swimming was to the west. These behaviours add to a growing list of adaptive behaviours of Aurelia labiata medusae.