Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Peculiarities of Dynamic Slip Nucleation in a Thin Granular Layer

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Granular media determine the dynamics of many natural systems including faults in the Earth’s crust. The paper addresses the laboratory...     

PROBLEMS IN CONSTRUCTING A BATHYMETRIC BASE MAP FOR THE GULF OF FINLAND

The various steps required for compilation of a bathymetric chart of the Gulf of Finland are outlined, taking into account the specific conditions characteristic of that water body. The use of available initial source materials and special survey work required for supplementing these sources is discussed. Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, VA 22308 from: Geodeziya i kartografiya, 1988, No. 8, pp. 40-42.     

Expansion of the principal functions of Keplerian motion using complex variables

A special system of canonical variables is considered. An algorithm for expanding the principal functions of Keplerian motion in new elements is presented. The advantage of the proposed system is a relatively small number of terms in the classical expansions of the unperturbed two-body problem. A method for expanding the time derivatives of the rectangular coordinates is proposed. Some estimates of the number of terms in the presented expansions have been obtained through numerical experiments.     

Evolution of disk galaxies regulated by supernova remnants

Assuming that a disk galaxy is composed of an ambient pervasive gas, small clouds, molecular clouds and stars, its evolution is studied through examining the interchange processes among them. Main results obtained are: (1) The star formation rate is directed by the formation process of molecular clouds. (2) Depending upon the parameters there may be three or four types of evolution of disk galaxies: the no star formation case, the active in the past and inactive at present star formation case, the burst-like star formation case and the very active in star formation case.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan between 30 September–6 October, 1984.     

Existence of transverse waves in anisotropic poroelastic media

Out of the four waves in an anisotropic poroelastic medium, two are termed as quasi-transverse waves. The prefix 'quasi' refers to their polarizations being nearly, but not exactly, perpendicular to direction of propagation. In this composite medium, unlike perfectly elastic medium, the propagation of a longitudinal wave along a phase direction may not be accompanied by transverse waves. The existence of a transverse wave in anisotropic poroelastic media is ensured by the two equations restricting the choice of elastic coefficients of porous aggregate as well as fluid–solid coupling. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of transverse waves along the coordinate axes and in the coordinate planes for general anisotropy are discussed. The discussion is extended to the case of orthotropic materials and existence for few specific phase directions is also explored. The conditions for the transverse waves decided on the basis of their apparent polarizations, that is, particle motion being perpendicular to ray direction, are also discussed. For a particular numerical model, the existence of these apparent transverse waves is solved numerically for phase directions in coordinate planes. For general directions of phase propagation, the existence of these transverse waves is checked graphically for the chosen numerical model.