Mapping landslide susceptibility from small datasets: A case study in the Pays de Herve (E Belgium)

A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps.     

Reconciling pyroclastic flow and surge: the multiphase physics of pyroclastic density currents

Two end-member types of pyroclastic density current are commonly recognized: pyroclastic surges are dilute currents in which particles are carried in turbulent suspension and pyroclastic flows are highly concentrated flows. We provide scaling relations that unify these end-members and derive a segregation mechanism into basal concentrated flow and overriding dilute cloud based on the Stokes number (S_T), the stability factor (Σ_T) and the dense-dilute condition (D_D). We recognize five types of particle behaviors within a fluid eddy as a function of S_T and Σ_T: (1) particles sediment from the eddy, (2) particles are preferentially settled out during the downward motion of the eddy, but can be carried during its upward motion, (3) particles concentrate on the periphery of the eddy, (4) particles settling can be delayed or ‘fast-tracked’ as a function of the eddy spatial distribution, and (5) particles remain homogeneously distributed within the eddy. We extend these concepts to a fully turbulent flow by using a prototype of kinetic energy distribution within a full eddy spectrum and demonstrate that the presence of different particle sizes leads to the density stratification of the current. This stratification may favor particle interactions in the basal part of the flow and D_D determines whether the flow is dense or dilute. Using only intrinsic characteristics of the current, our model explains the discontinuous features between pyroclastic flows and surges while conserving the concept of a continuous spectrum of density currents.     

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.     

Changes in stream water quality due to logging of the boreal forest in the Montmorency Forest,Québec

Summer stream water quality was monitored before and following the logging of 50% of the boreal forest within three small watersheds (<50 ha) nested in the ‘Ruisseau des Eaux‐Volées’ Experimental Watershed, Montmorency Forest (Québec, Canada). Logging was conducted in winter, on snow cover according to recommended best management practices (BMPs) to minimize soil disturbance and protect advance growth. A 20‐m forest buffer was maintained along perennial streams. In watershed 7·2, cut‐blocks were located near the stream network and logging was partially allowed within the riparian buffer zone. In watersheds 7·5 and 7·7, logging occurred farther away from the stream network. Observations were also made for watershed 7·3 that collected the runoff from watersheds 7·2 and 7·5, and watershed 7·6, the uproad portion of watershed 7·7. The control watershed 0·2 was contiguous to the impacted watersheds and remained undisturbed. Following clearcutting, changes in summer daily maximum and minimum stream temperatures remained within ± 1 °C while changes in diurnal variation did not decrease by more than 0·5 °C. Concentrations of NO₃^? greatly increased by up to 6000% and concentrations of K⁺ increased by up to 300% during the second summer after logging. Smaller increases were observed for Fe_total (up to 71%), specific conductance (up to 26%), and Mg²⁺ (up to 19%). Post‐logging pH decreased slightly by no more than 7% while PO₄^3? concentration remained relatively constant. Suspended sediment concentrations appeared to increase during post‐logging, but there was not enough pre‐logging data to statistically confirm this result. Logging of moderate intensity and respecting established BMPs may account for the limited changes of water quality parameters and the low exceedances of the criteria for the protection of aquatic life. The proximity of the cutover to the stream network and logging within the riparian zone did not appear to affect water quality. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data Assimilation (4D-VAR) for Shallow-Water Flow: The Case of the Chicoutimi River

This is a web presentation of the work presented at the 10th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, “CFD 2002”, at the University of Windsor on June 9-11, 2002. This discussion paper presents the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-VAR) technique as a tool to forecast floods. This discussion will be limited to hydrological forecast. We assume that the weather, here a large rainstorm, had already been forecasted by the meteorological services. In the 4D-VAR technique, we need to minimize, in the sense of Lagrange, a cost function which measures the difference between the forecast and the observations. The physical equations acts as a set of constraints. Here, the model is the shallow-water equations modified to include sediment transport. The minimum was found by using the steepest descent algorithm. This is made possible because the gradient of the cost function can be calculated analytically by using the adjoint equations of the model. To illustrate the 4D-VAR technique, the bypass of a simple theoretical dam as well as the more complex overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam (during the 1996 flood) are investigated.     

Structure cristalline d'une ménéghinite naturelle pauvre en cuivre,Cu0,58Pb12,72(Sb7,04Bi0,24)S24Crystal structure of a Cu-poor natural meneghinite,Cu0.58Pb12.72(Sb7.04Bi0.24)S24

Cu-poor meneghinite from La Lauzière Massif (Savoy, France) has the composition (electron microprobe) (in wt%): Pb 59.50, Sb 20.33, Bi 1.19, Cu 0.87, Ag 0.05, Fe 0.03, S 17.62, Se 0.05, Total 99.64. Its crystal structure (X-ray on a single crystal) was solved with R1=0.0506, wR2=0.1026, with an orthorhombic symmetry, space group Pnma, and a=24.080(5) Å, b=4.1276(8) Å, c=11.369(2) Å, V=1130.0(4) Å³, Z=4. Relatively to the model of Euler and Hellner (1960), this structure shows a significantly lower site occupancy factor for the tetrahedral Cu site (0.146 against 0.25). Among the five other metallic sites, Bi appears in the one with predominant Sb. Developed structural formula: Cu_0.15Pb₂(Pb_0.53Sb_0.47)(Pb_0.46Sb_0.54)(Sb_0.75Pb_0.19Bi_0.06)S₆; the reduced one: Cu_0.58Pb_12.72(Sb_7.04Bi_0.24)S₂₄. The formation of such a Cu-poor variety seems to be related to specific paragenetic conditions (absence of coexisting galena), or to crystallochemical constraints (minor Bi). To cite this article: Y. Moëlo et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 529–536.     

Cratering and modification of wet‐target craters: Projectile impact experiments and field observations of the Lockne marine‐target crater (Sweden)

Abstract— Marine impacts are one category of crater formation in volatile targets. At target water depths exceeding the diameter of the impactor, the zones of vaporization, melting, and excavation of the standard land‐target cratering model develop partially or entirely in the water column. The part of the crater that has a potential of being preserved (seafloor crater) may to a great extent be formed by material emplacement and excavation processes that are very different from land‐target craters. These processes include a high‐energy, water‐jet‐driven excavation flow. At greater water depths, the difference in strength of the target layers causes a concentric crater to evolve. The crater consists of a wide water cavity with a shallow excavation flow along the seabed surrounding a nested, deeper crater in the basement. The modification of the crater is likewise influenced by the water through its forceful resurge to fill the cavity in the water mass and the seafloor. The resurge flow is strongly erosive and incorporates both ejecta and rip‐up material from the seabed surrounding the excavated crater. A combination of field observations and impact experiments has helped us analyze the processes affecting the zone between the basement crater and the maximum extent of the water cavity. The resurge erosion is facilitated by fragmentation of the upper parts of the solid target caused by a) spallation and b) vibrations from the shallow excavation flow and, subsequently, c) the vertical collapse of the water cavity rim wall. In addition, poorly consolidated and saturated sediments may collapse extensively, possibly aided by a violent expansion of the pore water volume when it turns into a spray during passage of the rarefaction wave. This process may also occur at impacts into water‐saturated targets without an upper layer of seawater present. Our results have implications for impacts on both Earth and Mars, and possibly anywhere in the solar system where volatiles exist/have existed in the upper part of the target.     

The isotopic signature of monsoon conditions,cloud modes,and rainfall type

This work provides a comprehensive physically based framework for the interpretation of the north Australian rainfall stable isotope record (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). Until now, interpretations mainly relied on statistical relationships between rainfall amount and isotopic values on monthly timescales. Here, we use multiseason daily rainfall stable isotope and high resolution (10 min) ground‐based C‐band polarimetric radar data and show that the five weather types (monsoon regimes) that constitute the Australian wet season each have a characteristic isotope ratio. The data suggest that this is not only due to changes in regional rainfall amount during these regimes but, more importantly, is due to different rain and cloud types that are associated with the large scale circulation regimes. Negative (positive) isotope anomalies occurred when stratiform rainfall fractions were large (small) and the horizontal extent of raining areas were largest (smallest). Intense, yet isolated, convective conditions were associated with enriched isotope values whereas more depleted isotope values were observed when convection was widespread but less intense. This means that isotopic proxy records may record the frequency of which these typical wet season regimes occur. Positive anomalies in paleoclimatic records are most likely associated with periods where continental convection dominates and convection is sea‐breeze forced. Negative anomalies may be interpreted as periods when the monsoon trough is active, convection is of the oceanic type, less electric, and stratiform areas are wide spread. This connection between variability of rainfall isotope anomalies and the intrinsic properties of convection and its large‐scale environment has important implications for all fields of research that use rainfall stable isotopes.     

Conflicting structural and geochronological data from the Ibituruna quartz-syenite (SE Brazil): Effect of protracted “hot” orogeny and slow cooling rate?

The Ibituruna quartz-syenite was emplaced as a sill in the Ribeira-Araçuaí Neoproterozoic belt (Southeastern Brazil) during the last stages of the Gondwana supercontinent amalgamation. We have measured the Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) in samples from the Ibituruna sill to unravel its magnetic fabric that is regarded as a proxy for its magmatic fabric. A large magnetic anisotropy, dominantly due to magnetite, and a consistent magnetic fabric have been determined over the entire Ibituruna massif. The magmatic foliation and lineation are strikingly parallel to the solid-state mylonitic foliation and lineation measured in the country-rock. Altogether, these observations suggest that the Ibituruna sill was emplaced during the high temperature (~ 750 °C) regional deformation and was deformed before full solidification coherently with its country-rock. Unexpectedly, geochronological data suggest a rather different conclusion. LA-ICP-MS and SHRIMP ages of zircons from the Ibituruna quartz-syenite are in the range 530–535 Ma and LA-ICP-MS ages of zircons and monazites from synkinematic leucocratic veins in the country-rocks suggest a crystallization at ~ 570–580 Ma, i.e., an HT deformation > 35My older than the emplacement of the Ibituruna quartz-syenite. Conclusions from the structural and the geochronological studies are therefore conflicting. A possible explanation arises from ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar thermochronology. We have dated amphiboles from the quartz-syenite, and amphiboles and biotites from the country-rock. Together with the ages of monazites and zircons in the country-rock, ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar mineral ages suggest a very low cooling rate: < 3 °C/My between 570 and ~ 500 Ma and ~ 5 °C/My between 500 and 460 Ma. Assuming a protracted regional deformation consistent over tens of My, under such stable thermal conditions the fabric and microstructure of deformed rocks may remain almost unchanged even if they underwent and recorded strain pulses separated by long periods of time. This may be a characteristic of slow cooling “hot orogens” that rocks deformed at significantly different periods during the orogeny, but under roughly unchanged temperature conditions, may display almost indiscernible microstructure and fabric.     

Subsurface DC resistivity mapping: approximate 1-D interpretation

Resistivity prospecting is the main tool used to investigate the shallow structure of the ground. A series of new techniques for determining the 2-D and 3-D geometry of the ground is now finding increasing use, but the light and simple Wenner prospecting technique remains a practical and efficient tool for rapidly mapping lateral variations in resistivity. When the resistivity changes are smooth, 1-D modelling can be used to interpret the data, and the criteria governing this approximation can be defined from synthetic data generated by a 3-D slab-model. For a Wenner array, two quadripole configurations can be used, Normal and Dipole-Dipole. For these two configurations the width of the transition zone, the apparent anisotropy effect and the precision of the resistivity values recovered from 1-D inversion differ. However the simultaneous inversion of both sets of data gives better results than for either configuration by itself. Two examples illustrate that in geological contexts where the thickness of the weathered zone causes the changes in the apparent resistivity value, this parameter can be recovered from 1-D inversion.