Use of a nonstationary copula to predict future bivariate low flow frequency in the Connecticut river basin

Frequency analysis of streamflow provides an essential ingredient in our understanding of hydrologic events and provides needed guidance in the design and management of water resources infrastructure. However, traditional hydrologic approaches often fail to include important external effects that can result in unpredictable or unforeseen changes in streamflow. Moreover, previous studies investigating multiple characteristics of streamflow do not address a nonstationary approach. This study explores nonstationary frequency analysis of bivariate characteristics, including occurrence and severity, of annual low flow in the Connecticut River Basin, United States. To investigate bivariate low flow frequency, copulas and their marginal distributions are constructed by using stationary and nonstationary approaches. Our study results indicate that streamflow used in this study demonstrate significant nonstationarity. Over time, the occurrence and severity of low flows are shown to be lower with the same probability based on the results of nonstationary copulas. Bivariate low flow frequencies in the years 1970, 2000, and 2030, and their joint return periods are estimated under the nonstationary copulas. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Photometric observations of NY Cephei

NewUBV photoelectric observations of NY Cep were made from 1982 to 1989 with GOTO 61-cm telescope at the Yonsei University Observatory. Seven times of minimum light were obtained. An improved orbital period of 15.27566 day was determined. The light curves were analyzed using the Wilson-Devinney method. It is confirmed that NY Cep is a detached system and the absolute dimensions are also obtained. It is found that the secondary eclipse does not occur due to large eccentricity and inclination.     

Gyroless attitude estimation of sun-pointing satellites using magnetometers

Deterministic attitude estimation methods based on vector observations are used for the coarse-attitude calculation of the sun-pointing satellites. The objective of the deterministic attitude estimation is to get the direction cosine matrix without considering the stochastic noises. The existing deterministic attitude estimation methods require two complete (three-axis) vector observations corresponding to two known reference vectors. This letter suggests a new deterministic attitude estimation method using only geomagnetic-field measurements on two axes for sun-pointing satellites in the sun-acquisition mode.     

Historical change in lake sedimentation in Lake Takkobu, Kushiro Mire, northern Japan over the last 300 years

Environmental degradation, including shallowing, deterioration of aquatic habitat and water pollution, has arisen from the inflow of fine sediment to Lake Takkobu in northern Japan. The lake has experienced gradual environmental degradation due to agricultural development, which has introduced both fine sediment and sediment-associated nutrients into the lake. We have reconstructed the history of sediment yield to Lake Takkobu in Kushiro Mire over the last 300 years and have examined trends with reference to land-use development. Fifteen lake sediment core samples were obtained, and various physical variables of lake sediments were analyzed and dated using ¹³⁷Cs and tephrochronology. The physical variables showed that all points contained mainly silt, except for two points close to the river mouths, where the mean diameter was < 35 μm. The peaks were defined as a “signal” when the physical variables were synchronous in a profile. These were created by floods and engineering works constructing drainage systems. The signal of canal construction in 1898 was detected in all core points. Lake Takkobu core samples contained two tephra layers. From the refractive indices of dehydrated glasses, the lower tephra layer was identified as Ko-c2 (1694) and the upper tephra layer as Ta-a (1739). A clear peak in the ¹³⁷Cs concentration was detected at all the sampling points, except for the site close to the Takkobu River. This site showed two peaks in the ¹³⁷Cs concentration, which was attributed to perturbation from flood events and a drainage project. The maximum ¹³⁷Cs concentration was identified as the sediment surface from 1963, enveloped by the 1962 and 1964 signals. The sediment yield averaged over the last 300 years for Lake Takkobu was reconstructed for four periods using the signal, tephra and ¹³⁷Cs as marker layers. The sediment yield under the natural erosion condition for the first two periods was 226 tons/year from 1694 to 1739 and 196 tons/year from 1739 to 1898. The development of the Takkobu watershed started in 1880s with partial deforestation and channelization in 1898, 1959, and 1962 leading to an increased sedimentation yield of 1016 tons/year from 1898 to 1963. Continued deforestation, channelization works in 1964, road construction in 1980–1990s, as well as agriculture development caused a further increase to 1354 tons/year from 1963 to 2004. Compared to the averaged natural sedimentation yield of 206 tons/year until 1898, initial land-use development in a catchment accelerated lake sedimentation, indicated by the 5-fold sediment yield. With increasing agricultural development since 1960s, sedimentation yields were highest for 1963–2004; a 7-fold increase compared with pre-impact conditions. To reduce sediment yield, riparian buffers along the rivers should be preserved or rebuilt, and sluices may function effectively during short-term periods of flooding. Environmental management policy and laws restricting uncontrolled and inappropriate land-use might help in addition to ensure longer-term environmental health by reducing the sedimentation rate.     

Derivation of regression coefficients for sea surface temperature retrieval over East Asia

Among the regression-based algorithms for deriving SST from satellite measurements, regionally optimized algorithms normally perform better than the corresponding global algorithm. In this paper,three algorithms are considered for SST retrieval over the East Asia region (15°-55°N, 105°-170°E),including the multi-channel algorithm (MCSST), the quadratic algorithm (QSST), and the Pathfinder algorithm (PFSST). All algorithms are derived and validated using collocated buoy and Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS-5) observations from 1997 to 2001. An important part of the derivation and validation of the algorithms is the quality control procedure for the buoy SST data and an improved cloud screening method for the satellite brightness temperature measurements. The regionally optimized MCSST algorithm shows an overall improvement over the global algorithm, removing the bias of about -0.13℃ and reducing the root-mean-square difference (rmsd) from 1.36℃ to 1.26℃. The QSST is only slightly better than the MCSST. For both algorithms, a seasonal dependence of the remaining error statistics is still evident. The Pathfinder approach for deriving a season-specific set of coefficients, one for August to October and one for the rest of the year, provides the smallest rmsd overall that is also stable over time.     

Formation mechanisms of illite,chlorite and mixed-layer illite-chlorite in Triassic volcanogenic sediments from the Southland Syncline,New Zealand

Clay minerals from the three principal kinds of zeolitic sediments from the type area for zeolite facies alteration, the Triassic Murihiku Supergroup, Southland, New Zealand, have been studied by TEM. Bentonitic tuff consists largely of smectite and heulandite with minor illite; they occur as replacements of glass shards and are inferred to be direct alteration products of tuff alteration. Both analcime- and laumontite-rich tuffs contain chlorite, illite and mixed-layer illite-chlorite, including 11 mixed-layer sequences. Subhedral to euhedral phyllosilicate crystal shapes and other textural features imply that phyllosilicates crystallized from solution derived in part by dissolution of precursor smectite. Intralayer transitions involving illite and chlorite are inferred to be products of crystallization rather than direct alteration and replacement. Petrographically similar bentonitic and analcimized tuffs overlap each other in the stratigraphic section, supporting earlier observations that there is no systematic change in smectite relative to the illite plus chlorite derived from smectite in sections up to 8.5 km thick. The data imply that smectite may be metastable relative to illite plus chlorite. Permeability and fluid chemistry are inferred to be as significant as temperature in promoting reactions in clay minerals as well as zeolites during burial metamorphism.Contribution No. 436, from The Mineralogical Laboratory, Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109