Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River

Accurate prediction of the chemical constituents in major river systems is a necessary task for water quality management, aquatic life well-being and the overall healthcare planning of river systems. In this study, the capability of a newly proposed hybrid forecasting model based on the firefly algorithm (FFA) as a metaheuristic optimizer, integrated with the multilayer perceptron (MLP-FFA), is investigated for the prediction of monthly water quality in Langat River basin, Malaysia. The predictive ability of the MLP-FFA model is assessed against the MLP-based model. To validate the proposed MLP-FFA model, monthly water quality data over a 10-year duration (2001–2010) for two different hydrological stations (1L04 and 1L05) provided by the Irrigation and Drainage Ministry of Malaysia are used to predict the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and dissolved oxygen (DO). The input variables are the chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphate (PO₄), total solids, potassium (K), sodium (Na), chloride (Cl), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and ammonia nitrogen (NH₄-N). The proposed hybrid model is then evaluated in accordance with statistical metrics such as the correlation coefficient (r), root-mean-square error, % root-mean-square error and Willmott’s index of agreement. Analysis of the results shows that MLP-FFA outperforms the equivalent MLP model. Also, in this research, the uncertainty of a MLP neural network model is analyzed in relation to the predictive ability of the MLP model. To assess the uncertainties within the MLP model, the percentage of observed data bracketed by 95 percent predicted uncertainties (95PPU) and the band width of 95 percent confidence intervals (d-factors) are selected. The effect of input variables on BOD and DO prediction is also investigated through sensitivity analysis. The obtained values bracketed by 95PPU show about 77.7%, 72.2% of data for BOD and 72.2%, 91.6% of data for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. The d-factors have a value of 1.648, 2.269 for BOD and 1.892, 3.480 for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. Based on the values in both stations for the 95PPU and d-factor, it is concluded that the neural network model has an acceptably low degree of uncertainty applied for BOD and DO simulations. The findings of this study can have important implications for error assessment in artificial intelligence-based predictive models applied for water resources management and the assessment of the overall health in major river systems.     

Wrench structural deformation in Ras Al Hilal-Al Athrun area, NE Libya: a new contribution in Northern Al Jabal Al Akhdar Belt

Al Jabal Al Akhdar is a NE/SW- to ENE/WSW-trending mobile part in Northern Cyrenaica province and is considered a large sedimentary belt in northeast Libya. Ras Al Hilal-Al Athrun area is situated in the northern part of this belt and is covered by Upper Cretaceous–Tertiary sedimentary successions with small outcrops of Quaternary deposits. Unmappable and very restricted thin layers of Palaeocene rocks are also encountered, but still under debate whether they are formed in situ or represent allochthonous remnants of Palaeocene age. The Upper Cretaceous rocks form low-lying to unmappable exposures and occupy the core of a major WSW-plunging anticline. To the west, south, and southeast, they are flanked by high-relief Eocene, Oligocene, and Lower Miocene rocks. Detailed structural analyses indicated structural inversion during Late Cretaceous–Miocene times in response to a right lateral compressional shear. The structural pattern is themed by the development of an E–W major shear zone that confines inside a system of wrench tectonics proceeded elsewhere by transpression. The deformation within this system revealed three phases of consistent ductile and brittle structures (D₁, D₂, and D₃) conformable with three main tectonic stages during Late Cretaceous, Eocene, and Oligocene–Early Miocene times. Quaternary deposits, however, showed at a local scale some of brittle structures accommodated with such deformation and thus reflect the continuity of wrenching post-the Miocene. D₁ deformation is manifested, in Late Cretaceous, via pure wrenching to convergent wrenching and formation of common E- to ENE-plunging folds. These folds are minor, tight, overturned, upright, and recumbent. They are accompanied with WNW–ESE to E–W dextral and N–S sinistral strike-slip faults, reverse to thrust faults and pop-up or flower structures. D₂ deformation initiated at the end of Lutetian (Middle Eocene) by wrenching and elsewhere transpression then enhanced by the development of minor ENE–WSW to E–W asymmetric, close, and, rarely, recumbent folds as well as rejuvenation of the Late Cretaceous strike-slip faults and formation of minor NNW–SSE normal faults. At the end of Eocene, D₂ led to localization of the movement within E–W major shear zone, formation of the early stage of the WSW-plunging Ras Al Hilal major anticline, preservation of the contemporaneity (at a major scale) between the synthetic WNW–ESE to E–W and ENE–WSW strike-slip faults and antithetic N–S strike-slip faults, and continuity of the NW–SE normal faults. D₃ deformation is continued, during the Oligocene-Early Miocene, with the appearance of a spectacular feature of the major anticline and reactivation along the E–W shear zone and the preexisting faults. Estimating stress directions assumed an acted principal horizontal stress from the NNW (N33°W) direction.     

Geology and Genesis of Barite Deposits of Lasbela and Khuzdar Districts, Balochistan, Pakistan

Abstract: Geology and genesis of the sediment-hosted barite deposits in the Lasbela and Khuzdar districts of Balochistan, Pakistan have been studied and described. Hot solutions generated in rifting environments during the initial stage of separation of the continental crustal block related to the Gondwanaland fragmentation subsequently reposed in Jurassic rocks, most probably played an important role on barite formation.
Paragenetic relationships indicate that the period of barite mineralization was distinctly later than that of zinc-lead sulphide mineralization in the Lasbela and Khuzdar districts. The barite deposits occur on top and in peripheral to the zinc-lead sulphides. The earliest barite mineralization took place in the clastic rock sequence of the lower Spingwar Formation as cross cutting veins. Younger mineralization as stratabound-replacement type occurred within the platform limestones of Loralai Formation, just above the Spingwar Formation. The youngest mineralization as stratiform is hosted within black shales, mudstones and argillaceous limestones of Anjira Formation at the top of Loralai Formation. In the light of the evidences gathered from field and laboratory investigations a genetic model has been deduced.     

Study of Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects and Auto-conversion Processes over the West African Monsoon Region Using a Regional Climate Model

This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols(e.g., black carbon and sulfate)over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon(WAM) period(June–July–August). We investigate the impacts of aerosols on the amount of cloudiness, the influences on the precipitation efficiency of clouds, and the associated radiative forcing(direct and indirect). Our study includes the implementation of three new formulations of auto-conversion parameterization [namely, the Beheng(BH), Tripoli and Cotton(TC) and Liu and Daum(R6) schemes] in Reg CM4.4.1,besides the default model's auto-conversion scheme(Kessler). Among the new schemes, BH reduces the precipitation wet bias by more than 50% over West Africa and achieves a bias reduction of around 25% over Central Africa. Results from detailed sensitivity experiments suggest a significant path forward in terms of addressing the long-standing issue of the characteristic wet bias in Reg CM. In terms of aerosol-induced radiative forcing, the impact of the various schemes is found to vary considerably(ranging from-5 to-25 W m~(-2)).     

Evolution of isotopic compositions in groundwater of the area between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Gulf

The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen have been implemented to assess the recharge mechanisms in an area in the UAE bounded to the northwestern part of the Gulf of Oman and the southeastern part of the Arabian Gulf. The conversion of stable isotopes to deuterium excess was utilized as a supportive tool to understand the process of groundwater recharge. The concluding results of this study showed that the origin of moisture is the Mediterranean Sea. The precipitation is the main source of recharge, in which the precipitation having undergone evaporation before recharge occurs. The comparison between regression line for data collected in 1996 and regression line for samples collected in 2006 suggests that the precipitation water which recharged the groundwater, was diluted with groundwater and this dilution is observed from decreasing of the deuterium excess of collected groundwater samples with increasing isotopes of oxygen. The dilution of groundwater with the recharge water suggests modern-day recharge as it is seen from high deuterium excess that exceeded the deuterium excess of LMWL and was close to MMWL.     

Sur les anomalies structurales de l'anticlinal de l'oued Bahloul de Tunisie : héritage tectonique et plissement cisaillant de couverture

The Oued Bahloul structure exists in the central Atlas of Tunisia. This structure is oriented N70 and it shows a very particular geometry characterized by: (i) an important disharmony between the northern and the southern flanks; (ii) a dissymmetry between the east and the west parts of the structure; (iii) several gaps and progressive unconformities present in the Cretaceous and Eocene series.Three major tectonic directions characterize this structure: (i) the N120 appears in the western part of the anticline; (ii) some north–south faults distinguish the oriental part; (iii) the strike fault, which is confirmed by seismic data, affects the central part of this anticline. To cite this article: A. Saadi et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Climate impacts of environmental degradation in Sudan

There exists an impressive amount of work for Sudan showing the anthropogenic degradation of natural vegetation cover. However, there are few examples of consequent climatic changes in literature. This work, thus, seeks to assess such effects of environmental forcing on various climatic patterns over the past few decades. Within the frame of the present analysis, the results are quite striking and are in concordance with scientific contentions that such land degradation could result in climatic modification. Higher temperature and less rainfall, sunshine duration and global radiation have been noticed. Evapotranspiration has responded more to the warming and drying conditions, thus showed signs of increasing rates, especially during the wet season. However, the extent of increase seems to have been suppressed by the decrease in sunshine duration and solar radiation as well as the inconsistent behaviour of wind speed. Changes in the variability of the within-year monthly observations have also occurred, thus suggesting an increase in the occurrence of extremes. The observed climatic modification in the country has exaggerated the insidious drought conditions. The present findings are hoped to contribute to our understanding of the effects of environmental problem and assist in considering policy responses. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Les dykes basiques du massif ancien de l'Ourika (Atlas de Marrakech,Maroc) : géochimie et significationThe basic dykes of the Ourika old massif (High Atlas of Marrakech): Geochemistry and significance

The Precambrian massif of Ourika is crosscut by two systems of basic dykes, striking N40°E and N90–120°E. Using incompatible trace elements, the two systems form two distinct chemical groups, displaying a continental tholeiitic affinity. The composition variations between the two defined groups can be due to heterogeneities of mantle sources and to contamination, during the magma ascent, by the continental crust. The emplacement of these basic dykes, before the late-PIII formations, can be related to the Neoproterozoic distension generalised to the Anti-Atlas chain. To cite this article: A. Barakat et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 827–833.     

Present environment and historic changes from the record of lake sediments, Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Changes in the urban environment of Dhaka City have been evaluated from the geochemical compositions of bottom sediments from two lakes, Gulshan-1 and –2. Abundances of Pb, Zn, Fe₂O₃ and total sulfur in a Gulshan-1 core gradually increase toward the sediment–water interface. Three stages of condition change can be recognized in Gulshan-1, based on trace metal concentration patterns. The basal Stage I corresponds to background Dhaka sedimentation, whereas gradual increase in Stage II represents the beginning of pollution. Marked increases in Pb and Zn in Stage III reflect rapid urban development and increased emissions to the atmosphere. The condition of the Dhaka environment is compared to that of Japan based on Zn–Fe₂O₃ and Pb–Fe₂O₃ relations. Zn–Fe₂O₃ ratios in Stage I Dhaka sediments are similar to normal Japanese sediments, whereas Stage II data lie on the same trend as Japan urban sediments. Dhaka Stage III samples have greater Zn:Fe₂O₃ ratios than Japanese urban sediments, suggesting Zn pollution from poorly-controlled industrial sources. In contrast, the Dhaka Pb–Fe₂O₃ trend lies between normal and urban Japanese sediments. Although vehicle emissions in Dhaka are now significant, the data suggest that Pb pollution from this source remains in its early stages.     

Caractérisation des paragenèses et des paléocirculations fluides dans l'indice d'or de Bleı̈da (Anti-Atlas,Maroc)Characterization of the paragenesis and the fluid palaeo-circulations in the gold showings of Bleida (Anti-Atlas,Morocco)

The gold showings at Bleida are hosted in Late Pan-African N50–80 °E quartz–hematite–chlorite 1 tension lenses that are related to the activity of major sinistral sub-east–west thrusts. Ores result from three superimposed stages of fluid migration. Gold occurs in microcracks offsetting the earlier minerals. Fluids evolved from COHN compositions with a saline component to boiling aqueous fluids. Pressure and temperature decreased from 50 MPa and 300 °C to less than 4 MPa and 150 °C. Thus, the gold showings at Bleida were formed in a typical geothermal (epithermal) setting, likely controlled by the Late Pan-African magmatism. To cite this article: A. Barakat et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 35–41