What can ecological science tell us about opportunities for carbon sequestration on arid rangelands in the United States?

Scientific interest in carbon sequestration on rangelands is largely driven by their extent, while the interest of ranchers in the United States centers on opportunities to enhance revenue streams. Rangelands cover approximately 30% of the earth's ice-free land surface and hold an equivalent amount of the world's terrestrial carbon. Rangelands are grasslands, shrublands, and savannas and cover 312 million hectares in the United States. On the arid and semi-arid sites typical of rangelands annual fluxes are small and unpredictable over time and space, varying primarily with precipitation, but also with soils and vegetation. There is broad scientific consensus that non-equilibrium ecological models better explain the dynamics of such rangelands than equilibrium models, yet current and proposed carbon sequestration policies and associated grazing management recommendations in the United States often do not incorporate this developing scientific understanding of rangeland dynamics. Carbon uptake on arid and semi-arid rangelands is most often controlled by abiotic factors not easily changed by management of grazing or vegetation. Additionality may be impossible to achieve consistently through management on rangelands near the more xeric end of a rangeland climatic gradient. This point is illustrated by a preliminary examination of efforts to develop voluntary cap and trade markets for carbon credits in the United States, and options including payment for ecosystem services or avoided conversion, and carbon taxation. A preliminary analysis focusing on cap and trade and payment for avoided conversion or ecosystem services illustrates the misalignment between policies targeting vegetation management for enhanced carbon uptake and non-equilibrium carbon dynamics on arid United States rangelands. It is possible that current proposed carbon policy as exemplified by carbon credit exchange or offsets will result in a net increase in emissions, as well as investment in failed management. Rather than focusing on annual fluxes, policy and management initiatives should seek long-term protection of rangelands and rangeland soils to conserve carbon, and a broader range of environmental and social benefits.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Unpacking governance: Building adaptive capacity to climate change of river basins in Brazil

Governance and institutions are critical determinants of adaptive capacity and resilience. Yet the make-up and relationships between governance components and mechanisms that may or may not contribute to adaptive capacity remain relatively unexplored empirically. This paper builds on previous research focusing on integrated water resources management in Brazil to ‘unpack’ water governance mechanisms that may shape the adaptive capacity of water systems to climatic change. We construct a river basin index to characterize governance approaches in 18 Brazilian river basins, apply a reliability test to assess the validity of these governance indicators, and use in-depth qualitative data collected in a subsample of the basins to explore the relationship between the governance indicators and adaptive capacity. The analysis suggests a positive relationship between integrated water governance mechanisms and adaptive capacity. In addition, we carry out a cluster analysis to group the basins into types of governance approaches and further unveil potential relationships between the governance variables and overall adaptive capacities. The cluster analysis indicates that tensions and tradeoffs may exist between some of the variables, especially with equality of decision making and knowledge availability; a finding that has implications for decision makers aiming to build adaptive capacity and resilience through governance and institutional means.     

Spontaneous Formation of Magnetic Flux Concentrations in Stratified Turbulence

The negative effective magnetic pressure instability discovered recently in direct numerical simulations (DNSs) may play a crucial role in the formation of sunspots and active regions in the Sun and stars. This instability is caused by a negative contribution of turbulence to the effective mean Lorentz force (the sum of turbulent and non-turbulent contributions) and results in the formation of large-scale inhomogeneous magnetic structures from an initially uniform magnetic field. Earlier investigations of this instability in DNSs of stably stratified, externally forced, isothermal hydromagnetic turbulence in the regime of large plasma ?? are now extended into the regime of larger scale separation ratios where the number of turbulent eddies in the computational domain is about 30. Strong spontaneous formation of large-scale magnetic structures is seen even without performing any spatial averaging. These structures encompass many turbulent eddies. The characteristic time of the instability is comparable to the turbulent diffusion time, L ²/?? _t, where ?? _t is the turbulent diffusivity and L is the scale of the domain. DNSs are used to confirm that the effective magnetic pressure does indeed become negative for magnetic field strengths below the equipartition field. The dependence of the effective magnetic pressure on the field strength is characterized by fit parameters that seem to show convergence for larger values of the magnetic Reynolds number.     

The formation of the Oort cloud in open cluster environments

We study the influence of an open cluster environment on the formation and current structure of the Oort cloud. To do this, we have run 19 different simulations of the formation of the Oort cloud for 4.5 Gyrs. In each simulation, the Solar System spends its first 100 Myrs in a different open cluster environment before transitioning to its current field environment. We find that, compared to forming in the field environment, the inner Oort cloud is preferentially loaded with comets while the Sun resides in the open cluster and that most of this material remains locked in the interior of the cloud for the next 4.4 Gyrs. In addition, the outer Oort cloud trapping efficiencies we observe in our simulations are lower than previous formation models by about a factor of 2, possibly implying an even more massive early planetesimal disk. Furthermore, some of our simulations reproduce the orbits of observed extended scattered disk objects, which may serve as an observational constraint on the Sun's early environment. Depending on the particular open cluster environment, the properties of the inner Oort cloud and extended scattered disk can vary widely. On the other hand, the outer portions of the Oort cloud in each of our simulations are all similar.     

The recognition of former melt flux through high‐strain zones

High‐strain zones are potential pathways of melt migration through the crust. However, the identification of melt‐present high‐strain deformation is commonly limited to cases where the interpreted volume of melt “frozen” within the high‐strain zone is high (>10%). In this contribution, we examine high‐strain zones in the Pembroke Granulite, an otherwise low‐strain outcrop of volcanic arc lower crust exposed in Fiordland, New Zealand. These high‐strain zones display compositional layering, flaser‐shaped mineral grains, and closely spaced foliation planes indicative of high‐strain deformation. Asymmetric leucosome surrounding peritectic garnet grains suggest deformation was synchronous with minor amounts of in situ partial melting. High‐strain zones lack typical mylonite microstructures and instead display typical equilibrium microstructures, such as straight grain boundaries, 120° triple junctions, and subhedral grain shapes. We identify five key microstructures indicative of the former presence of melt within the high‐strain zones: (a) small dihedral angles of interstitial phases; (b) elongate interstitial grains; (c) small aggregates of quartz grains with xenomorphic plagioclase grains connected in three dimensions; (d) fine‐grained, K‐feldspar bearing, multiphase aggregates with or without augite rims; and (e) mm‐ to cm‐scale felsic dykelets. Preservation of key microstructures indicates that deformation ceased as conditions crossed the solidus, breaking the positive feedback loop between deformation and the presence of melt. We propose that microstructures indicative of the former presence of melt, such as the five identified above, may be used as a tool for recognising rocks formed during melt‐present high‐strain deformation where low (<5%) volumes of leucosome are “frozen” within the high‐strain zone.     

Neighborhood and socioeconomic change in emerging megapolitan nodes: tracking shifting social geographies in three rapidly growing United States metropolitan areas, 1980–2010

This paper investigates the complex demographic and social changes that have occurred in the neighborhoods of fast-growing United States metropolitan areas emerging as nodes in megapolitan regions between 1980 and 2010. A neighborhood typology is created using k-means cluster analysis to examine the demographic and housing characteristics, and geographic distribution, of neighborhoods that have existed in rapidly growing metropolitan areas. A socioeconomic index is created using principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze socioeconomic conditions within neighborhoods. Using data from the metropolitan areas of Las Vegas, Nevada; Austin, Texas; and Raleigh, North Carolina, this study identifies five neighborhood types, each of which has distinctive geographic and socioeconomic trends. The geographic orientation of each metropolitan area within their larger megapolitan region appears to have a role in the geography of neighborhood change. The results are also discussed in relation to human ecology, immigration, and economic restructuring.