The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.     

Iron isotope fractionation in subduction-related high-pressure metabasites (Ile de Groix,France)

Characterisation of mass transfer during subduction is fundamental to understand the origin of compositional heterogeneities in the upper mantle. Fe isotopes were measured in high-pressure/low-temperature metabasites (blueschists, eclogites and retrograde greenschists) from the Ile de Groix (France), a Variscan high-pressure terrane, to determine if the subducted oceanic crust contributes to mantle Fe isotope heterogeneities. The metabasites have δ⁵⁶Fe values of +0.16 to +0.33‰, which are heavier than typical values of MORB and OIB, indicating that their basaltic protolith derives from a heavy-Fe mantle source. The δ⁵⁶Fe correlates well with Y/Nb and (La/Sm)_PM ratios, which commonly fractionate during magmatic processes, highlighting variations in the magmatic protolith composition. In addition, the shift of δ⁵⁶Fe by +0.06 to 0.10‰ compared to basalts may reflect hydrothermal alteration prior to subduction. The δ⁵⁶Fe decrease from blueschists (+0.19 ± 0.03 to +0.33 ± 0.01‰) to eclogites (+0.16 ± 0.02 to +0.18 ± 0.03‰) reflects small variations in the protolith composition, rather than Fe fractionation during metamorphism: newly-formed Fe-rich minerals allowed preserving bulk rock Fe compositions during metamorphic reactions and hampered any Fe isotope fractionation. Greenschists have δ⁵⁶Fe values (+0.17 ± 0.01 to +0.27 ± 0.02‰) similar to high-pressure rocks. Hence, metasomatism related to fluids derived from the subducted hydrothermally altered metabasites might only have a limited effect on mantle Fe isotope composition under subsolidus conditions, owing to the large stability of Fe-rich minerals and low mobility of Fe. Subsequent melting of the heavy-Fe metabasites at deeper levels is expected to generate mantle Fe isotope heterogeneities.     

A meta-analysis of global crop water productivity of three leading world crops (wheat,corn, and rice) in the irrigated areas over three decades

ABSTRACT

The overarching goal of this study was to perform a comprehensive meta-analysis of irrigated agricultural Crop Water Productivity (CWP) of the world’s three leading crops: wheat, corn, and rice based on three decades of remote sensing and non-remote sensing-based studies. Overall, CWP data from 148 crop growing study sites (60 wheat, 43 corn, and 45 rice) spread across the world were gathered from published articles spanning 31 different countries. There was overwhelming evidence of a significant increase in CWP with an increase in latitude for predominately northern hemisphere datasets. For example, corn grown in latitude 40–50° had much higher mean CWP (2.45?kg/m³) compared to mean CWP of corn grown in other latitudes such as 30–40° (1.67?kg/m³) or 20–30° (0.94?kg/m³). The same trend existed for wheat and rice as well. For soils, none of the CWP values, for any of the three crops, were statistically different. However, mean CWP in higher latitudes for the same soil was significantly higher than the mean CWP for the same soil in lower latitudes. This applied for all three crops studied. For wheat, the global CWP categories were low (≤0.75?kg/m³), medium (>0.75 to <1.10?kg/m³), and high CWP (≥1.10?kg/m³). For corn the global CWP categories were low (≤1.25?kg/m³), medium (>1.25 to ≤1.75?kg/m³), and high (>1.75?kg/m³). For rice the global CWP categories were low (≤0.70?kg/m³), medium (>0.70 to ≤1.25?kg/m³), and high (>1.25?kg/m³). USA and China are the only two countries that have consistently high CWP for wheat, corn, and rice. Australia and India have medium CWP for wheat and rice. India’s corn, however, has low CWP. Egypt, Turkey, Netherlands, Mexico, and Israel have high CWP for wheat. Romania, Argentina, and Hungary have high CWP for corn, and Philippines has high CWP for rice. All other countries have either low or medium CWP for all three crops. Based on data in this study, the highest consumers of water for crop production also have the most potential for water savings. These countries are USA, India, and China for wheat; USA, China, and Brazil for corn; India, China, and Pakistan for rice. For example, even just a 10% increase in CWP of wheat grown in India can save 6974 billion liters of water. This is equivalent to creating 6974 lakes each of 100?m³ in volume that leads to many benefits such as acting as ‘water banks’ for lean season, recreation, and numerous ecological services. This study establishes the volume of water that can be saved for each crop in each country when there is an increase in CWP by 10%, 20%, and 30%.     

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.     

Propagation of the Rossby waves on two dimensional rectangular grids

Summary A simple two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic linearized model of the atmosphere is used to investigate the behaviour of the quasi-geostrophic modes for five horizontal rectangular grids. Numerical expressions for frequencies of Rossby waves for all grids are evaluated. It was found that the B and C grids produce only negative frequencies as well as the continuous case. The D grid has negative and zero frequencies. Finally, it was found that the A and E grids produce positive frequencies and eastward moving Rossby waves.With 2 Figures     

Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, th...     

80 Jahre von univ. prof. dr. alois gregor DrSc.

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Macropores as preferential flow paths in meander bends

Macropores are subsurface connected void spaces caused by processes such as fracture of soils, micro‐erosion, and fauna burrows. They are common near streams (e.g. hyporheic and riparian zones) and may act as preferential flow paths between surface and groundwaters, affecting hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. We tested the hydrologic function of macropores by constructing an artificial macropore within the saturated zone of a meander bend (open macropore, ‘OM’) and later filling its upstream end (partially filled macropore, ‘PFM’). For each treatment, we injected saline tracer at an upgradient monitoring well within the meander and monitored downgradient hydraulics and tracer transport. Pressure transducers in monitoring wells indicated hydraulic gradients within the meander were 32% higher perpendicular to and 6% higher parallel to the macropore for the OM than for the PFM. Additionally, hydraulic conductivities measured via falling head tests were 29 to 550 times higher along the macropore than in nearby sediment. We used electrical conductivity probes in wells and electrical resistivity imaging to track solute transport. Transport velocities through the meander were on average 9 and 21% higher (per temporal moment analysis and observed tracer peak, respectively) for the OM than for the PFM. Furthermore, temporal moments of tracer breakthrough analysis indicated downgradient longitudinal dispersion and breakthrough tracer curve tailing were on average 234% and 182% higher for the OM, respectively. This suggests the OM enabled solute transport at overall shorter timescales than the matrix but also increased tailing. Our results demonstrate the importance of macropores to meander bend hydrology and solute transport. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The response in floodplain respiration of an alpine river to experimental inundation under different temperature regimes

The respiratory potential [i.e. electron transport system activity (ETSA)] of soils and sediments from five floodplain habitats (channel, gravel, islands, riparian forest and grassland) of the Urbach River, Switzerland, and actual respiration rate (R) of the same samples exposed to experimental inundation were measured. Measurements were carried out at three incubation temperatures (4°C, 12°C and 20°C), and ETSA/R ratios (i.e. exploitation of the overall metabolic capacity) were investigated to better understand the effects of temperature and inundation on floodplain functional heterogeneity. Furthermore, ETSA/R ratios obtained during experimental inundation were compared with ETSA/R ratios from field measurements to investigate the exploitation in total metabolic potential at different conditions. Lowest ETSA and R were measured in samples from channel and gravel habitats, followed by those from islands. Substantially higher values were measured in soils from riparian forest and grassland. Both ETSA and R increased with increasing temperature in samples from all habitats, while the ETSA/R ratio decreased because of a rapid response in microbial community respiration to higher temperatures. The metabolic capacity exploitation (i.e. ETSA/R) during experimental inundation was lowest in predominantly terrestrial samples (riparian forest and grassland), indicating the weakest response to wetted conditions. Comparison of experimentally inundated and field conditions revealed that in rarely flooded soils, the metabolic capacity was less exploited during inundation than during non‐flooded conditions. The results suggest high sensitivity in floodplain respiration to changes in temperature and hydrological regime. ETSA/R ratios are considered good indicators of changes in metabolic activity of floodplain soils and sediments, and thus useful to estimate the impact of changes in hydrological regime or to evaluate success of floodplain restoration actions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.