Taking issue with PPARC over STP

Following the PPARC programmatic review announced in the spring of last year, with its gloomy outlook for solar–terrestrial physics, three young scientists in the field mobilized the junior members of the STP community. Gary Abel, Jim Wild and Mick Denton tell the story which led to an unprecedented meeting of early-career scientists, followed by an informative meeting with PPARC chief executive Prof. Keith Mason.     

Observed precipitation in the Paraná-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections

The Paraná-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Paraná-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Niño. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Paraná-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Niño and La Niña conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Niño3.4 or Niño1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.     

Assessment of the reliability of 2D inversion of apparent resistivity data

The reliability of inversion of apparent resistivity pseudosection data to determine accurately the true resistivity distribution over 2D structures has been investigated, using a common inversion scheme based on a smoothness‐constrained non‐linear least‐squares optimization, for the Wenner array. This involved calculation of synthetic apparent resistivity pseudosection data, which were then inverted and the model estimated from the inversion was compared with the original 2D model. The models examined include (i) horizontal layering, (ii) a vertical fault, (iii) a low‐resistivity fill within a high‐resistivity basement, and (iv) an upfaulted basement block beneath a conductive overburden. Over vertical structures, the resistivity models obtained from inversion are usually much sharper than the measured data. However, the inverted resistivities can be smaller than the lowest, or greater than the highest, true model resistivity. The substantial reduction generally recorded in the data misfit during the least‐squares inversion of 2D apparent resistivity data is not always accompanied by any noticeable reduction in the model misfit. Conversely, the model misfit may, for all practical purposes, remain invariant for successive iterations. It can also increase with the iteration number, especially where the resistivity contrast at the bedrock interface exceeds a factor of about 10; in such instances, the optimum model estimated from inversion is attained at a very low iteration number. The largest model misfit is encountered in the zone adjacent to a contact where there is a large change in the resistivity contrast. It is concluded that smooth inversion can provide only an approximate guide to the true geometry and true formation resistivity.     

The environmental setting of the harbor of the classical site of Oeniades on the Acheloos delta,Greece

Using a multidisciplinary approach, the Holocene geomorphological and palaeoenvironmental dynamics of the Acheloos delta were studied in order to understand how the ancient port of Oeniades, today situated 5 km from the sea, was connected to the sea in ancient times. A study of ancient maps, aerial photographs, and a SPOT image enabled us to reconstitute the successive changes in the flow of the Acheloos River and to conclude that, contrary to the traditional thesis of historians and archeologists, the harbor of Oeniades was completely independent from the river during Antiquity. Multidisciplinary studies (sedimentology, malacology, palynol‐ogy, and radiocarbon dating) were carried out on sediments from two boreholes (OEN1 and OEN2). Results show that the port of Oeniades communicated directly with an open bay that was created at the peak of the last post‐glacial transgression. The bay was gradually filled with sediments, allowing human occupation of the area to progress. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Seasonal plankton variability in Chilean Patagonia fjords: Carbon flow through the pelagic food web of Aysen Fjord and plankton dynamics in the Moraleda Channel basin

Two research cruises (CIMAR 13 Fiordos) were conducted in the N–S oriented macrobasin of the Moraleda Channel (42–47°S), which includes the E–W oriented Puyuhuapi Channel and Aysen Fjord, during two contrasting productive seasons: austral winter (27 July–7 August 2007) and spring (2–12 November 2007). These campaigns set out to assess the spatio-temporal variability, defined by the local topography along Moraleda Channel, in the biological, physical, and chemical oceanographic characteristics of different microbasins and to quantify the carbon budget of the pelagic trophic webs of Aysen Fjord.Seasonal carbon fluxes and fjord-system functioning vary widely in our study area. In terms of spatial topography, two constriction sills (Meninea and Elefantes) define three microbasins along Moraleda Channel, herein the (1) north (Guafo-Meninea), (2) central (Meninea-Elefantes), and (3) south (Elefantes-San Rafael Lagoon) microbasins. In winter, nutrient concentrations were high (i.e. nitrate range: 21–14 μM) and primary production was low (153–310 mgC m^?2 d^?1), suggesting that reduced light radiation depressed the plankton dynamics throughout Moraleda Channel. In spring, primary production followed a conspicuous N–S gradient, which was the highest (5167 mgC m^?2 d^?1) in the north microbasin and the lowest (742 mgC m^?2 d^?1) in the south microbasin. The seasonal pattern of the semi-enclosed Puyuhuapi Channel and Aysen Fjord, however, revealed no significant differences in primary production (～800 mgC m^?2 d^?1), and vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon were nearly twice as high in spring as in winter (266 vs. 168 mgC m^?2 d^?1).At the time-series station (St. 79), the lithogenic fraction dominated the total sedimented matter (seston). The role of euphausiids in the biological carbon pump of the Patagonian fjords was evident, given the predominance of zooplankton fecal material, mostly euphausiid fecal strings (46% of all fecal material), among the recognizable particles contributing to the particulate organic carbon flux.The topographic constriction sills partially modulated the exchange of oceanic waters (Subantarctic Surface Water) with freshwater river discharges along the Moraleda Channel. This exchange affects salinity and nutrient availability and, thus, the plankton structure. The north microbasin was dominated by a seasonal alternation of the classical (spring) and microbial (winter) food webs. However, in the south microbasin, productivity was low and the system was dominated year-round by large inputs of glacier-derived, silt-rich freshwater carrying predominantly small-sized diatoms (Skeletonema spp) and bacteria. When superimposed upon this scenario, highly variable (seasonal) solar radiation and photoperiods could exacerbate north–south differences along Moraleda Channel.     

Evolution of Stratocumulus Over Land: Comparison of Ground and Aircraft Observations with Numerical Weather Prediction Simulations

Forecasting of low cloud continues to challenge numerical weather prediction. With this in mind, surface and airborne observations were made over East Anglia, UK, during March 2011 to investigate stratus and stratocumulus advecting from the sea over land. Four surface sites were deployed at various distances inland aligned approximately along the flow. In situ data include cloud-droplet measurements from an aircraft operating off the coast and a tethered balloon 100 km inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic and cloud properties are made with Met Office operational model simulations at horizontal resolutions of 4 and 1.5 km. The clouds contained droplet concentrations up to 600 cm \(^{-3}\) within polluted outflow off Europe. These measurements were compared to three different model schemes for predicting droplet concentration: two of them perform well at low to moderate concentrations but asymptote to 375 cm \(^{-3}\) . Microwave radiometers at the ground sites retrieved liquid water paths that reduced with distance inland and were generally below 200 g m \(^{-2}\) . The modelled water path performs well upstream but more erratically far inland. Comparisons of thermodynamic profiles are made within both Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks and show the model predicted changes in equivalent potential temperature generally within 1 K, with occasional errors of 2 K or more. The modelled cloud-top temperatures were in good agreement with the observations down to \(-\) 7  \(^{\circ }\) C, but the magnitude of the temperature inversion, although good at times, was too small by on average 1.6 K. The different simulations produced different cloud-top water contents due to a combination of resolution and scientific upgrades to the model, but they generally underestimate the amount of cloud water. Major changes, such as the mesoscale temporary cloud breaks on 2 March 2011 and the complete clearance on 4 March, were seemingly predicted by the model for the correct reasons.     

Porphyry to epithermal transition in the Agua Rica polymetallic deposit, Catamarca, Argentina: An integrated petrologic analysis of ore and alteration parageneses

Agua Rica (27°26′S–66°16′O) is a world class Cu–Au–Mo deposit located in Catamarca, Argentina. In the E–W 6969400 section examined, the Seca Norte and the Trampeadero porphyries that have intruded the metasedimentary rock are cut by interfingered igneous and hydrothermal heterolithic and monolithic breccias, and sandy dikes. Relic biotite and K-feldspar of the early potassic alteration (370° to > 550 °C) with Cu (Mo–Au) mineralization are locally preserved and encapsulated in a widespread, white mica + quartz + rutile or anatase halo (phyllic alteration) with pyrite + covellite that suggests fluids with temperatures ≤ 360 °C and high f(S₂). The Trampeadero porphyry and the surrounding metasedimentary rock with phyllic alteration have molybdenite in stringers and B-type quartz veinlets and the highest Mo grades (> 1000 ppm).Multistage advanced argillic alteration overprinted the earlier stages. Early andalusite ± pyrite ± quartz is preserved in the roots of the argillic halo rimmed by an alumina–silica material and white micas. This alteration assemblage is considered to have been formed at temperatures ≥ 375 °C from condensed magmatic vapor. At higher levels, pyrophyllite replaces muscovite and illite in clasts of hydrothermal breccias in the center and east sector of the study section, suggesting temperatures of 280 to 360 °C. Clasts of vuggy silica in the uppermost levels of the central breccia, indicates that at lower temperatures (< 250 °C), fluids reached very low pH (pH < 2). In this early stage of the advanced argillic alteration, hydrothermal fluids seem to have not precipitated sulfides or sulfosalts.Hydrothermal brecciation was concurrent with fluid exsolution (↑? V), which precipitated intermediate-temperature advanced argillic alunite (svanbergite + woodhouseite) ± diaspore ± zunyite as breccia cement along with abundant covellite + pyrite + enargite ± native sulfur ± kuramite at intermediate depths and in lateral transitional zones to unbrecciated rocks. This mineral assemblage indicates temperatures near 300 °C, oxidized and silica-undersaturated hydrothermal fluids with high sulfur fugacity to prevent gold precipitation. Multiple generations of pyrite, emplectite, colusite, Pb- and Bi-bearing sulfosalts, and native sulfur with Au and Ag, accompanied by alunite introduction in the upper level breccias, probably occurred at lower temperatures, but still high sulfur and oxygen activity. An independent Zn and Pb (as galena) mineralization stage locally coincides with Au–Ag and sulfosalts, and advanced at depth, controlled by fractures and overprinting much of the previous mineralization. A later paragenesis of veinlets of alunite + woodhouseite + svanvergite + pyrite ± enargite that cut the phyllic halo suggests temperatures ~ 250 °C and without woodhouseite + svanvergite, temperatures ~ 200 °C. Kaolinite occurs in the phyllic halo as a late mineral in clots and in veinlets thus, in this zone, the fluid had cooled enough for its formation.     

Assessment of charcoal driven deforestation rates in a fragile rangeland environment in North Eastern Somalia using very high resolution imagery

Multi-temporal very high resolution satellite images and field work have been used for quantifying the tree cutting rate over a 5 years period in a very arid tiger bush area of North Eastern Somalia with intensive charcoal production activities. By applying both a classical area frame sampling approach with visual interpretation of the samples and a semi-automatic tree detection algorithm, it was possible to create baseline tree density layers for the 2 years of observation and to quantify the tree cutting rates for the period from 2001 to 2006. An average annual tree loss of −2.8%, coupled with the total absence of regrowth during the 5 years study period, confirm the tremendous ecological impacts of charcoal driven tree cutting on tiger bush vegetation. Analysis of the results evidences spatial and temporal patterns in the cutting locations and poses the basis for a better understanding of the ecological and human dimensions of deforestation in the fragile rangeland environment of Northern Somalia.     

The Basic Building Blocks of Galaxies

Current cold dark matter models of structure formation make a clear prediction for cosmic structures in the Dark Ages. We discuss the formation and nature of the first collapsed and first luminous objects in the universe arising in these theories. The first virialized objects are dark matter halos at the free streaming length which depends on the mass and nature of the assumed weakly interacting massive particle. The first objects that also contain significant fractions of gas have masses of the cosmological Jeans scale ∼ 10^4M _⊙ at the redshifts of interest (z ∼ 30). The first pre-galactic objects that host stars have masses of 10⁶ M _⊙. This mass scale is given by the requirement of a sufficiently high virial temperature to enable the chemical reactions necessary to form molecular hydrogen which subsequently allows the gas to dissipate its gravitational energy and to collapse to form a star. An individual massive star is formed per such object and explodes in a supernova within a few Myrs. All these stages of the formation of the first objects are illustrated by fully resolved three dimensional cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.