On the waterfront: Quaternary environments and the formative occupation of Southwestern Ecuador

The occurrence of tectonic uplift in coastal South American prehistory is discussed and evidence of emerged shoreline features is presented for the area of the Santa Elena Peninsula in Ecuador. It is hypothesized that this activity, once thought to be exclusively Pleistocene in timing, continued on into the Holocene. Given this perspective and field data, the role of the Early Formative Period Valdivia phase (3500-1500 B.C.) site of Real Alto is examined, as is the economic structure of Real Alto society. the pattern of site distribution and data from geological units indicate a long period of tectonic activity that restructured the Ecuadorian coastline and affected northern Andean prehistory. the implications for the origins of Valdivia and New World pottery are reconsidered in light of new information on the Quaternary environments of Ecuador.     

Effects of the southern oscillation on the probability for climatic categories of monthly rainfall, in a semi-arid region in the southern mid-latitudes

In many regions of the world, planning agricultural and water management activities is usually done based on probabilities for monthly rainfall, taking on values on specified intervals of values. These intervals of monthly rainfall amounts are commonly grouped into three categories: drought, normal rainfall, and abundant rainfall. Changes in the probabilities for occurrence of monthly rainfall amounts within these climatic rainfall categories will influence the decisions farmers and water managers will take (for example, crops to cultivate, flood preparedness, and operations of water reservoirs). This research explores the changes produced by the SO (Southern Oscillation) on the probability that the areal average of monthly rainfall (AAvMR) takes on values belonging to specified climatic rainfall categories. The semi-arid region under study is a major agricultural region in central Argentina; weather effects on agriculture in this region influence the world market of several crops. The evolution of the Southern Oscillation was divided into three phases: LSOI (low Southern Oscillation index phase, that includes ENSO events), NSOI (neutral SOI phase), and HSOI (high SOI phase that includes La Niña–SO events). The following are the criteria defining the three phases of the SO: (1) low SOI (ENSO), where the five-month moving average of the SO index, SOI, is less than −0.5 standard deviation during at least five consecutive months, and is equal to or less than −1 standard deviation during at least one month; (2) high SOI (La Niña–SO), where the SOI is greater than 0.5 standard deviation during at least five consecutive months, and is equal to or greater than 1 standard deviation during at least one month; and (3) neutral SOI (transition between extremes), where the SOI does not correspond to low SOI nor to high SOI. It was found that the Southern Oscillation influences the probability distribution of monthly rainfall only in four months of the year. Findings show that monthly rainfall has a complex response to the evolution of the SO. The response is not restricted to higher probability for occurrence of abundant rainfall or drought categories during low SOI (ENSO) or high SOI (La Niña–SO) episodes, respectively. The LSOI (ENSO) phase influences the AAvMR in several ways: depending on the month, it increases or decreases the probability of the abundant rainfall category. LSOI (ENSO) also increases or decreases, depending on the month, the probability of the normal rainfall category. It also decreases the probability that AAvMR takes on values in the drought category. A similar kind of complex response of monthly rainfall amounts occurs when the active phase is the HSOI (La Niña–SO). The responses are: (1) the probability of the category `drought' increases only in three months of the year, (2) increase or decrease of the probability of the normal rainfall category, depending on the month, and (3) decrease of the probability of the abundant rainfall category. Finally, the effects of NSOI (neutral phase of the SO) are not negligible. Depending on the month, NSOI episodes increase or decrease the probability of drought, or abundant rainfall, or normal rainfall categories.     

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin,West Africa

The aim of this study was to quantify climate change impact on future blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources as well as the associated uncertainties for 4 subbasins of the Beninese part of the Niger River Basin. The outputs of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled for the historical period (1976–2005) and for the future (2021–2050) using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Comparison of climate variables between these 2 periods suggests that rainfall will increase (1.7% to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but shows mixed trends (?8.5% to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase up to 0.48 °C for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 up to ?0.37 °C. Driven by the downscaled climate data, future BW and GW were evaluated with hydrological models validated with streamflow and soil moisture, respectively. The results indicate that GW will increase in all the 4 investigated subbasins, whereas BW will only increase in one subbasin. The overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of the future BW and GW was quantified through the computation of the interquartile range of the total number of model realizations (combinations of regional climate models and selected hydrological models) for each subbasin. The results show larger uncertainty for the quantification of BW than GW. To cope with the projected decrease in BW that could adversely impact the livelihoods and food security of the local population, recommendations for the development of adequate adaptation strategies are briefly discussed.     

A comparison of the Iberian and Ebro Basins during the Permian and Triassic, eastern Spain: A quantitative subsidence modelling approach

The Permian–Triassic sediments of the Iberian Plate are a well studied case of classical Buntsandstein–Muschelkalk–Keuper facies, with good sedimentological interpretations and precise datings based on pollen and spore assemblages, ammonoids and foraminifera. Synrift–postrift cycles are recorded in these facies, but there are only a few studies of quantitative subsidence analysis (backstripping method) and only a previous one using forward modelling for the quantification of synrift–postrift phases of this period.Here we present the results obtained by the quantitative analysis of fourteen field sections and oil-well electric log records in the Iberian and Ebro Basins, Spain. Backstripping analysis showed five synrift phases of 1 to 3 million years duration followed by postrift periods for the Permian–Triassic interval. The duration, however, shows lateral variations and some of them are absent in the Ebro Basin. The forward modelling analysis, assuming local isostatic compensation, has been applied to each observation point using one-layer and two-layer lithospheric configurations. The second one shows a better fit between observation and model prediction in a systematic way, so a two layer configuration is assumed for the sedimentary basin filling analysis. Lithospheric stretching factors β and δ obtained in the forward modelling analysis are never higher than 1.2, but sometimes β < 1 and simultaneously δ > 1 in the same section. If surficial extension is compensated by deep compression either at the roots of the rift basins or in far-away zones is not yet clear, but this anomaly can be explained using a simple shear extensional model for the Iberian and Ebro basins.     

Phase relationship between sea level and abrupt climate change

Direct traces of past sea levels are based on the elevation of old coral reefs at times of sea level highstands. However, these measurements are discontinuous and cannot be easily correlated with climate records from ice cores. In this study we show a new approach to recognizing the imprint of sea level changes in continuous sediment records taken from the continental slope at locations that were continuously submerged, even during periods of sea level lowstand. By using a sediment core precisely synchronized with Greenland ice cores, we were able to recognize major floods of the Mediterranean continental shelf over the past 270 kyr. During the last glacial period five flooding events were observed at the onset of the warmest Greenland interstadials. Consistent correspondence between warm climate episodes and eustatic sea level rises shows that these global flooding events were generated by pronounced melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, due to rapid intensification of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.The method described in this study opens a new perspective for inter-hemispheric synchronization of marine climate records if applied in other continental margins from the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial regions.     

Regional droughts in southern South America

From a regional inventory of monthly droughts, which was evaluated in six regions of southern South America, the seasonal occurrence of the phenomenon and its persistence together with the duration of monthly and annual sequences, extreme events, and other statistical estimates of the proposed index have been studied. In a primary analysis, it is possible to observe that regions present different behaviors regarding the duration of dry sequences, with more persistence in the Argentinean continental region. Temporal behaviors of the annual indexes have also been analyzed, in the attempt to determine any aspects of the impact of global warming. Through this analysis, the presence of long favorable tendencies regarding precipitations or the inverse of droughts occurrence are confirmed for the eastern Andes Mountains in Argentina (ARG) with its five sub-regions (Northwest Argentina-NWA, Northeast Argentina-NEA, Humid Pampa-HP, West-Centre Provinces-WC and Patagonia-PAT, and the inverse over the central region of Chile (CHI). Other climatic great-scale changes are interdecadales variations and variances explained according to ENSO.     

An investigation into robust spectral indices for leaf chlorophyll estimation

Quantifying photosynthetic activity at the regional scale can provide important information to resource managers, planners and global ecosystem modelling efforts. With increasing availability of both hyperspectral and narrow band multispectral remote sensing data, new users are faced with a plethora of options when choosing an optical index to relate to their chosen or canopy parameter. The literature base regarding optical indices (particularly chlorophyll indices) is wide ranging and extensive, however it is without much consensus regarding robust indices. The wider spectral community could benefit from studies that apply a variety of published indices to differing sets of species data. The consistency and robustness of 73 published chlorophyll spectral indices have been assessed, using leaf level hyperspectral data collected from three crop species and a variety of savanna tree species. Linear regression between total leaf chlorophyll content and bootstrapping were used to determine the leafpredictive capabilities of the various indices. The indices were then ranked based on the prediction error (the average root mean square error (RMSE)) derived from the bootstrapping process involving 1000 iterative resampling with replacement. The results show two red-edge derivative based indices (red-edge position via linear extrapolation index and the modified red-edge inflection point index) as the most consistent and robust, and that the majority of the top performing indices (in spite of species variability) were simple ratio or normalised difference indices that are based on off-chlorophyll absorption centre wavebands (690–730 nm).     

On the Effect of Thermally Induced Stresses in Failures of Some Rock Slopes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Previous studies have indicated that many rock slope failures in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, occur during relatively dry periods when there is little, if any, rainfall. In the present paper, we describe these events and propose possible mechanisms for their occurrence. It is believed that daily fluctuations in temperature may create thermally induced stresses of enough magnitude to propagate fractures already existing in the rock mass. Laboratory experiments were conducted in order to measure temperature variations in a fractured rock system. Using the experimentally obtained data, we carried out numerical analyses in order to verify whether temperature-related stresses were indeed able to propagate fractures existing in the rock mass. The results obtained indicate that cycles of temperature change over time, especially during the colder months of the year can indeed create stress conditions in the rock mass able to propagate existing non-persistent joints, and ultimately lead to failure of the rock slope.