Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mercury mobility at the Carson River Superfund Site, west-central Nevada, USA: Interpretation of mercury speciation data in mill tailings, soils, and sediments

The Carson River Superfund Site in west-central Nevada is an area of Hg-contaminated soil, sediment, water, air, and biola resulting from the amalgamation milling of Ag-Au ores of the Comstock lode worked approximately a century ago. In order to develop an understanding of the behavior, transport, and fate of Hg at this site, a technique was developed to estimate the proportions of total, elemental, exchangeable, organic, and sulfide Hg in soils, sediments, and tailings.Results of this analysis performed on active Carson River sediments indicate that Hg is selectively dissolved out of Hg-Au amalgam particles and subsequently adsorbed to fine-grained sediments which are then deposited in downstream, low-energy reaches of the Carson River and Labontan Reservoir. In the relatively more-reducing environment of the reservoir Hg appears to be converted, in large part, to relatively-insoluble HgS.The original elemental form of Hg released to the environment is the chemical form which is still dominant in most highly-contaminated soils, sediments, and tailings. Deeper, more-reducing soil horizons, however, appear to fix a significant portion of the Hg as HgS, analogous to the Lahontan Reservoir example described above. This fixation as HgS is documented to be largely limited to higher-sulfur areas where sulfide minerals from the Comstock ores increase the total sulfur concentrations of contaminated soils, sediments, and tailings.     

Composition of hydrous melts in equilibrium with quartz eclogites

Summary Compositions of the hydrous melts in equilibrium with garnet, omphacitic clinopyroxene and quartz have been investigated experimentally at 28.5 and 35 kbar. They are represented by silica-rich liquids (> 70% SiO₂) with low MgO, FeO and CaO contents. The removal of ca 10–15% of the magma of this composition may be sufficient to convert quartz eclogite formed after subduction of altered MORB into a quartz-free bimineralic eclogite assemblage, which is a common type of xenoliths in kimberlites.At 28.5 kbar the solidus temperature is between 700 and 750° C in the system quartz eclogite—water, and the high pressure amphibole-out boundary lies at ca 25 kbar in accord with the previous studies.

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Die Zusammensetzung wasserhältiger Schmelzen im Gleichgewicht mit Quarz-Eklogiten

Zusammenfassung Um Prozesse zu simulieren, die bei der Subduktion von Ozeanbodenbasalten durch partielle Anatexis im Stabilitätsfeld von Eklogiten ablaufen, wurde die Zusammensetzung wasserhältiger Schmelzen in Gleichgewicht mit Granat, Omphacit und Quarz bei 28.5 und 35 Kbar experimentell untersucht. Diese Schmelzen sind reich an SiO₂ (> 70 Gew%) und arm an Mg0, Fe0 and CaO. Die Extraktion von ca. 10–15% derartiger Schmelzen würde genügen, um quarzführende Eklogite, die durch die Subduktion von alteriertem MORB Material entstanden sind, in quarzfreie bimineralische Eklogite umzuwandeln wie sie häufig als Xenolithe in Kimberliten beobachtet werden.Im System Quarz-Eklogit-Wasser liegt die Solidustemperatur bei 28.5 Kbar zwischen 700 und 750°C. Die obere Stabilitätsgrenze von Amphibol liegt in diesem Temperaturbereich bei ca. 25 Kbar.

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With 1 Figures     

Erratum: Revisiting the Geometry of a Ternary Diagram with the Half-Taxi Metric

Mathematical Geosciences -     

Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.     

The role of baseflow in dissolved solids delivery to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Salinity has a major effect on water users in the Colorado River Basin, estimated to cause almost $300 million per year in economic damages. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program implements and manages projects to reduce salinity loads, investing millions of dollars per year in irrigation upgrades, canal projects, and other mitigation strategies. To inform and improve mitigation efforts, there is a need to better understand sources of salinity to streams and how salinity has changed over time. This study explores salinity in the baseflow fraction of streamflow, assessing whether groundwater is a significant contributor of dissolved solids to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Chemical hydrograph separation was used to estimate baseflow discharge and baseflow dissolved solids loads at stream gages (n = 69) across the UCRB. On average, it is estimated that 89% of dissolved solids loads originate from the baseflow fraction of streamflow, indicating that subsurface transport processes play a dominant role in delivering dissolved solids to streams in the UCRB. A statistical trend analysis using weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season was used to evaluate changes in baseflow dissolved solids loads in streams (n = 27) from 1986 to 2011. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads were observed at 63% of streams. At the three most downstream sites, Green River at Green River, UT, Colorado River at Cisco, UT, and the San Juan River near Bluff, UT, baseflow dissolved solids loads decreased by a combined 823,000 metric tons (mT), which is approximately 69% of projected basin‐scale decreases in total dissolved solids loads as a result of salinity control efforts. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads suggest that salinity mitigation projects, landscape changes, and/or climate are reducing dissolved solids transported to streams through the subsurface. Notably, the pace and extent of decreases in baseflow dissolved solids loads declined during the most recent decade; average decreasing loads during the 2000s (28,200 mT) were only 54% of average decreasing loads in the 1990s (51,700 mT).     

Divergence and flow direction as indicators of subsurface heterogeneity and stage‐dependent storage in alluvial floodplains

Assuming homogeneity in alluvial aquifers is convenient, but limits our ability to accurately predict stream‐aquifer interactions. Research is needed on (i) identifying the presence of focused, as opposed to diffuse, groundwater discharge/recharge to streams and (ii) the magnitude and role of large‐scale bank and transient storage in alluvial floodplains relative to changes in stream stage. The objective of this research was to document and quantify the effect of stage‐dependent aquifer heterogeneity and bank storage relative to changes in stream stage using groundwater flow divergence and direction. Monitoring was performed in alluvial floodplains adjacent to the Barren Fork Creek and Honey Creek in northeastern Oklahoma. Based on results from subsurface electrical resistivity mapping, observation wells were installed in high and low electrical resistivity subsoils. Water levels in the wells were recorded real time using pressure transducers (August to October 2009). Divergence was used to quantify heterogeneity (i.e. variation in hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and/or aquifer thickness), and flow direction was used to assess the potential for large‐scale (100 m) bank or transient storage. Areas of localized heterogeneity appeared to act as divergence zones allowing stream water to quickly enter the groundwater system, or as flow convergence zones draining a large groundwater area. Maximum divergence or convergence occurred with maximum rates of change in flow rates or stream stage. Flow directions in the groundwater changed considerably between base and high flows, suggesting that the floodplains acted as large‐scale bank storage zones, rapidly storing and releasing water during passage of a storm hydrograph. During storm events at both sites, the average groundwater direction changed by at least 90° from the average groundwater direction during baseflow. Aquifer heterogeneity in floodplains yields hyporheic flows that are more responsive and spatially and temporally complex than would be expected compared to more common assumptions of homogeneity. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.