What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Five WC9 stars discovered in the AAO/UKST Hα survey

We report the discovery of five massive Wolf–Rayet (WR) stars resulting from a programme of follow-up spectroscopy of candidate emission-line stars in the Anglo-Australian Observatory United Kingdom Schmidt Telescope (AAO/UKST) Southern Galactic Plane Hα survey. The 6195–6775 Å spectra of the stars are presented and discussed. A WC9 class is assigned to all five stars through comparison of their spectra with those of known late-type WC stars, bringing the known total number of Galactic WC9 stars to 44. Whilst three of the five WC9 stars exhibit near-infrared (NIR) excesses characteristic of hot dust emission (as seen in the great majority of known WC9 stars), we find that two of the stars show no discernible evidence of such excesses. This increases the number of known WC9 stars without NIR excesses to seven. Reddenings and distances for all five stars are estimated.     

Asteroid families: evidence of ageing of the proper elements

In recent times it has been emphasized that the present kinematical structures of asteroid families should be evolved with respect to the original post-impact situations, according to numerical simulations performed taking into account also the previously neglected Yarkovsky effect. In this paper we show that also a “classical” approach based on an analysis of the current kinematical properties of families leads to conclude that the distributions of proper eccentricities and semimajor axes of family members exhibit evidence of an evolution. The importance of this approach is that it yields a fully independent and quantitative estimate of an evolutionary spreading of the proper elements. In particular, we find that the original post-impact families had to be on the average about twice more compact than the families we observe now, when considering family members down to about 5 km in size. This result can be used in future analyses to derive estimates of the ages of different families, and to better constrain the typical values of the ejection velocities of the fragments in family-forming events.     

Entry dynamics and acoustics/infrasonic/seismic analysis for the Neuschwanstein meteorite fall

Abstract— We have analyzed several types of data associated with the well‐documented fall of the Neuschwanstein meteorites on April 6, 2002 (a total of three meteorites have been recovered). This includes ground‐based photographic and radiometer data as well as infrasound and seismic data from this very significant bolide event (Spurný et al. 2002, 2003). We have also used these data to model the entry of Neuschwanstein, including the expected dynamics, energetics, panchromatic luminosity, and associated fragmentation effects. In addition, we have calculated the differential efficiency of acoustical waves for Neuschwanstein and used these values to compare against the efficiency calculated using available ground‐based infrasound data. This new numerical technique has allowed the source height to be determined independent of ray tracing solutions. We have also carried out theoretical ray tracing for a moving point source (not strictly a cylindrical line emission) and for an infinite speed line source. In addition, we have determined the ray turning heights as a function of the source height for both initially upward and downward propagating rays, independent of the explicit ray tracing (detailed propagation path) programs. These results all agree on the origins of the acoustic emission and explicit source heights for Neuschwanstein for the strongest infrasonic signals. Calculated source energies using more than four different independent approaches agree that Neuschwanstein was certainly <500 kg in initial mass, given the initial velocity of 20.95 km/s, resulting in an initial source energy ≤0.0157‐0.0276 kt TNT equivalent (4.185 times 10¹² J). Local source energies at the calculated infrasonic/seismic source altitudes are up to two orders of magnitude smaller than this initial source energy.     

Spectroscopy of comet P/Schaumasse

Column density profiles for CN, C₃, C₂ and NH have been determined from a long-slit CCD spectrum of periodic comet P/Schaumasse (1992x). Comparisons of these profiles with Haser models indicate that the ratios of the CN, C₃ and C₂ production rates are typical for a short-period comet. Although the scale lengths for NH and its parent species are uncertain, the results indicate that the production rate for NH is much greater than for either C₂ or CN.     

Possible meteoroid streams associated with (69230) Hermes and 2002 SY50

The orbits of (69230) Hermes and 2002 SY₅₀ are similar and the Earth approaches both of them twice: at the end of October the local orbital minimum distances are smaller than 0.007 AU, and at the end of April the distances are smaller than 0.04 AU. This gives us opportunities to observe the meteors associated with these asteroids. Using the geocentric parameters of the orbital close encounters (the theoretical radiants) and our D _N distance function (Valsecchi et al. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 304 (1999) 743), we searched for meteoroids originated by Hermes and 2002 SY₅₀. A search among 1830 good quality photographic meteors gave negative results: we found no meteor dynamically similar to Hermes or 2002 SY₅₀. In a second search, done in a set of 62150 radio meteors, we applied two methods (M1, M2) and in both cases we found two streams; the streams found with the M1 method had 43 and 30 members, those found with the M2 method had 39 and 14 members. However, these results do not look convincing, due to the small number of common members in the corresponding streams. We therefore conclude that amongst the IAU meteors used in our search there are no compact streams associated with Hermes and 2002 SY₅₀.