A geospatial assessment of flood hazard in north-eastern depressed basin,Bangladesh

Floods are a frequently occurring calamity in deltaic Bangladesh. This paper aims to assess the temporal expansion of waterbodies during flooding using geospatial techniques. Several water indices were applied to classify the satellite images at various temporal scales. Among them, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed the highest correlation (r = 0.831; where p = 0.01) with rainfall data. Specifically, the NDWI results showed that perennial waterbodies measured 37 km² and 60 km² in Sunamganj District in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The area of waterbodies notably increased 52-fold from March to April (37 km² to 1958 km²) during the pre-monsoon flash flood of 2017. During the July 2019 monsoon flood, waterbodies started to extend after May and flooded 2784 km² in area. NDVI analysis showed that in 2019, floodwater submerged 361.7 km² of vegetation cover. At the same time, the Surma River's flooding resulted in a 73.9 per cent inundation of the total area of the Sunamganj District. We hope that this study will provide better understanding of the varying nature of floods that occur in the low lying bowl shaped Haor region which will in turn assist the government with flood mitigation.     

Cohesive strength and seismogenic stress pattern along the active basement faults of the Precordillera-Sierras Pampeanas ranges, western Argentina: An experimental analysis by means of numerical model

A two-dimensional finite element method （FEM） model that incorporates faults, elastic rock physical properties, topographical load due to gravity and far-field plate velocity boundary conditions was used to recognize the seismogenic stress state along the fold-and-thrust belt of the Precordillera-Sierras Pampeanas ranges of western Argentina. A plane strain model with nine experiments was presented here to examine the fault strength with two major rock phyical properties： cohesion and angle of internal friction. Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with bulk rock properties were applied to analyse faults. The stress field at any point of the model was assumed to be comprised of gravitational and tectonic components. The analysis was focused to recognize the seismogenic shear strain concentrated in the internal-cristaline domain of the orogene shown by the modeling. Modeling results are presented in terms of four parameters, i. e., （i） distributions, orientations, and magnitudes of principal stresses （σ1 and σ3）, （ii） displacement vector1 （iii） strain distribution, and （iv） maximum shear stress （τmax） contour line within the model. The simulation results show that the compressive stress is distributed in and around the fault systems. The overall orientation of of σ1 is in horizontal directions, although reorientations do occur within some stress weaker parts, especially subsequent to the faults. A large-scale shear stress is accumulating along the active faults of Tapias-Villicum Fault （TVF）, Salinas-Berros Fault （SBF）, Ampacama-Niquizanga Fault （ANF） and Las Charas Fault （CF）, which could act as local stress and strain modulators to localize the earthquakesoccurrence.     

Effect of polystyrene microplastics and temperature on growth,intestinal histology and immune responses of brine shrimp Artemia franciscana

Microplastics pollution and seawater temperature rise have been the major environmental issues, threatening the survival and biodiversity of marine organisms. T...     

Estimation of Mining Project Values Through Real Option Valuation Using a Combination of Hedging Strategy and a Mean Reversion Commodity Price

Cash flows generated from mining projects are typically highly volatile and significantly influenced by a number of exogenous factors including commodity price as one of the most influential uncertainties. In addition, mining projects are complex and many of their executed investment decisions are irreversible. Therefore, management needs to address this potential risk exposure before making an investment decision. Due to the deterioration and fluctuation of mineral commodity prices for a successful mining project acquisition or development, an important and appropriate investment strategy should include a hedging strategy for reducing potential losses suffered by a company. The discounted cash flow methods, which are commonly used to calculate mining project values, often fail to respond to this identified economic uncertainty and also to incorporate de-risking hedging strategies. Therefore, this study approximates the numerical value or value ranges of a mining project considering the combination of a mean reverting commodity price and hedging strategies using continuous time modeling. A novel time-dependent partial differential equation has been proposed using a continuous time, mean reverting model, and hedging strategy to approximate the mining project value. Application of a new real options valuation technique demonstrated its superiority by providing the advantage of mitigating financial losses and procuring financial gains. In this study, some key results are deferral option and expansion option enhanced the maximum values of the project which are, respectively, 2.51 % and 4.4 % compared to the base case. Furthermore, the country risk has a great impact on project values, as when we considered the country risk premium is zero in our model, the project value increases up to 0.97 %.     

Disposition of aquifer system, geo-electric characteristics and gamma-log anomaly in the Kuttanad alluvium of Kerala

Kuttanad near the western coast of Kerala is a low lying area below mean sea level. The hydrogeological scenario in this wet land dominated tract, known as kole lands, was investigated by using the lithological and geophysical data generated under the R&D exploration programme of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) during the year 2000, as also other related data generated till the year 2009. The hydrogeology of the tract is complex, and the presence of carbonaceous and organic matter in the soil and sub-soil influences the geochemical and geo-electric characteristics of the sub-surface geological formations as reflected by SP and resistivity logs. The lithologs and geophysical logs of bore wells were used to define the aquifer geometry. While the lateral and vertical variations of the aquifer systems identified were high, the bottom aquifer was relatively brackish over a large area. The gamma log behavior in these granular zones is anomalous and misguiding in nature. The radioactivities recorded against clay horizons were in the range of 130 to 200cps and in the granular zones 150 to 350 cps. The presence of monazite bearing sands at certain depths was responsible for anomalously high gamma counts against granular zones. The water quality in the granular zones was inferred from the electrical logs. The depth of occurrence of high radiation sand beds was also demarcated.     

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change,population growth,and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.     

The response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone Viyaru over the Bay of Bengal

Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric process. The TC Viyaru is taken as an example, which is formed at the end of 11 May 2013 and sustains up to 17 May 2013 during pre-monsoon season. Argo data are used to investigate ocean response processes by comparing pre-and post-conditions of the TC. Eight oceanic parameters including the sea surface temperature(SST), the sea surface salinity(SSS), and the barrier layer thickness(BLT), the 26°C isotherm depth in the ocean(D26), the isothermal layer depth(ILD), the mixed layer depth(MLD), the tropical cyclone heat potential(TCHP) and the effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis(EOLC) are chosen to evaluate the pre-and post-conditions of the TC along the track of Viyaru. The values of the SST, D26, BLT, TCHP and EOLC in the pre-cyclonic condition are higher than the post-cyclonic condition, while the SSS, ILD and MLD in the post-cyclonic condition are higher than the pre-cyclonic condition of the ocean due to strong cyclonic winds and subsurface upwelling. It is interesting that the strong intensity of the TC reduces less SST and vice versa. The satisfied real time Argo data is not available in the northern Bay of Bengal especially in the coastal region. A weather research and forecasting model is employed to hindcast the track of Viyaru, and the satellite data from the National Center Environmental Prediction are used to assess the hindcast.     

Substantiation of debris flow velocity from super-elevation: a numerical approach

The use of super-elevations that a forced vortex flow leaves on the valley walls of a curved flume is a plausible approach toward estimating debris flow velocities in earthquake-induced geo-hazard studies. The centrifugal force of a speeding flow is responsible for a higher flow depth on the outer bend. However, in reality, a flow is not steady, and only the highest flow-marks are left at the outer and inner bends of the flow, which can lead to an inaccurate estimation of the actual velocity. Seeing the real scenario of the field, a series of numerical flume tests using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is conducted to validate the estimation of debris flow velocities from flow-marks. Velocities estimated from flow-marks are lower than real velocities near the source region, but they converge to real velocities as the distance to the source increases. Based on several simulations, a best-fit line is proposed for adjusting debris flow velocity from mud-marks, and it is used to estimate flow velocities of the well-documented debris event called “Shiraito river debris flow,” which happened near the rim of the Hakone Crater, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, ensuing from the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake.