Quantification of uncertainty in design water levels due to uncertain bed form roughness in the Dutch river Waal

Hydrodynamic river models are applied to design and evaluate measures for purposes such as safety against flooding. The modelling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties, resulting in uncertain model results. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of these uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model results. Uncertainty in the hydraulic roughness due to bed forms is one of the main contributors to the uncertainty in the modelled water levels. The aim of this study was to quantify the uncertainty in the bed form roughness under design conditions and quantify the effect on the design water levels in the Dutch river Waal. Five roughness models that predict bed form roughness based on measured bed form and flow characteristics were extrapolated to design conditions. The results show that the 95% confidence interval of the predicted Nikuradse roughness values under design conditions ranges from 0.32 to 1.03 m. This uncertainty was propagated through the two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model, WAQUA, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation for an idealized schematization of the Dutch river Waal. The uncertain bed form roughness results in an uncertainty in the design water levels, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.53 m, which is significant for Dutch river management practice. The uncertainty in the bed form roughness was mainly caused by a lack of knowledge about the physical process of bed form evolution that causes roughness. An improved estimation of bed form roughness can significantly reduce the uncertainty in the design water levels. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precambrian history of the Zona Transversal of the Borborema Province,NE Brazil: Insights from Sm–Nd and U–Pb geochronology

The Borborema Province has three major subprovinces. The northern subprovince lies north of the Patos shear zone and is comprised of Paleoproterozoic cratonic basement with Archean nuclei, plus overlying Neoproterozoic supracrustal rocks and Brasiliano plutonic rocks. The central subprovince occurs between the Patos and Pernambuco shear zones and is mainly comprised of the Zona Transversal. The southern subprovince occurs between the Pernamabuco shear zone and the São Francisco craton and is comprised of a tectonic collage of various blocks, terranes, or domains ranging in age from Archean to Neoproterozoic. This report focuses on the Zona Transversal, especially on Brasiliano rocks for which we have the most new information.Paleoproterozoic gneisses with ages of 2.0–2.2 Ga occur discontinuously throughout the Zona Transversal. The Cariris Velhos suite consists of metavolcanic, metasedimentary, and metaplutonic rocks yielding U–Pb zircon ages of 995–960 Ma. This suite is mainly confined to a 100 km wide belt that extends for more than 700 km within the Alto Pajeú terrane. Sm–Nd model ages in metaigneous rocks cluster about 1.3–1.6 Ga, indicating that older crust was involved in genesis of their magmas. Brasiliano supracrustal rocks dominate the Piancó-Alto Brígida terrane, and they probably also constitute significant parts of the Alto Pajeú and Rio Capibaribe terranes. They are only slightly older than early stages of Brasiliano plutonism, with detrital zircon ages at least as young as 620 Ma; most T_DM ages range from 1.2 to 1.6 Ga.Brasiliano plutons range from ca. 640 to 540 Ma, and their T_DM ages range from 1.2 to 2.5 Ga. Previous workers have shown significant correlations among U–Pb ages, Sm–Nd model ages, petrology, and geochemistry, and we are able to reinforce and extend these correlations. Stage I plutons formed 640–610 Ma and have T_DM ages less than 1.5 Ga. Stage II (610–590 Ma) contains few plutons, but coincides with the peak of compressional deformation, metamorphism, and formation of migmatites. Stage III plutons (590 to ca. 575 Ma) have older T_DM ages (ca. 1.8–2.0 Ga), as do Stage IV plutons (575 to ca. 550 Ma; T_DM from 1.9 to 2.4 Ga). Stage III plutons formed during the transition from compressional to transcurrent deformation, while Stage IV plutons are mainly post-tectonic. Stage V plutons (550–530 Ma) are commonly undeformed (except along younger shear zones) and have A-type geochemistry. The five stages have distinct geochemical properties, which suggest that the tectonic settings evolved from early, arc-related magma-genesis (Stage I) to within-plate magma-genesis (Stage V), with perhaps some intermediate phases of extensional environments.     

Constraints on the late Quaternary glaciations in Tibet from cosmogenic exposure ages of moraine surfaces

This contribution provides new constraints on the timing of Tibetan glacial recessions recorded by the abandonment of moraines. We present cosmogenic radionuclide ¹⁰Be inventories at 17 sites in southern and western Tibet (32 crests, 249 samples) and infer the range of permissible emplacement ages based on these analyses. Individual large embedded rock and boulder samples were collected from the crests of moraine surfaces and analyzed for ¹⁰Be abundance. We consider two scenarios to interpret the age of glacial recession leading to the moraine surface formation from these sample exposure ages: 1) Erosion of the moraine surface is insignificant and so the emplacement age of the moraines is reflected by the mean sample age; and 2) Erosion progressively exposes large boulders with little prior exposure, and so the oldest sample age records the minimum moraine emplacement age. We found that depending on the scenario chosen, the moraine emplacement age can vary by > 50% for ～100 ka-old samples. We consider two scaling models for estimating the production rates of ¹⁰Be in Tibet, which has an important, although lesser, effect on inferred moraine ages. While the data presented herein effectively increase the database of sample exposure ages from Tibet by ～20%, we find that uncertainties related to the interpretation of the ¹⁰Be abundance within individual samples in terms of moraine emplacement ages are sufficient to accommodate either a view in which glacial advances are associated with temperature minima or precipitation maxima that are recorded by independent paleoclimate proxies. A reanalysis of published data from moraines throughout Tibet shows that the variation we observe is not unique to our dataset but rather is a robust feature of the Tibetan moraine age database. Thus, when viewed in a similar way with other samples collected from this area, uncertainties within moraine exposure ages obscure attribution of Tibetan glacial advances to temperature minima or precipitation maxima. Our work suggests that more reliable chronologies of Tibetan glaciations will come from improvements in production rate models for this portion of the world, as well as a better understanding of the processes that form and modify these geomorphic surfaces.     

Evolution of forest precipitation water storage measurement methods

Precipitation intercepted by forests plays a major role in more than one‐fourth of the global land area's hydrologic cycle. Direct in situ measurement of intercepted precipitation is challenging, and thus, it is typically indirectly estimated through comparing precipitation under forest cover and in the open. We discuss/compare measurement methods for forest precipitation interception beyond classical budgeting and then recommend future directions for improving water storage estimation. Comparison of techniques shows that methods submerging tree components produce the largest water storage capacity values. Whole‐tree lysimeters have been used with great success at quantifying water storage for the integrated system yet are unable to separate trunk versus canopy storage. Remote sensing, particularly signal attenuation, may permit this separation. Mechanical displacement methods show great promise and variety of techniques: pulley/spring system, branch strain sensors, trunk compression sensors and photography. Relating wind sway to water storage also shows great promise with negligible environmental disruption yet is currently at the proof‐of‐concept stage. Suggested future directions focus on development of common features regarding all discussed methods: (i) measurement uncertainties or processes beyond interception influencing the observed signal, (ii) scaling approaches to move from single tree components to the single‐tree and forest scales and (iii) temporal scaling to estimate the relevance of single‐interception components over longer timescales. Through addressing these research needs, we hope the scientific community can develop an ‘integrated’ monitoring plan incorporating multiple measurement techniques to characterize forest‐scale water storage dynamics while simultaneously investigating underlying (smaller‐scale) components driving those dynamics across the spectrum of precipitation and forest conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High‐grade localized metasomatic alteration of the granitic gneiss surrounding a clinopyroxene‐rich pegmatoid dyke: Söndrum stenhuggeriet,Halmstad, SW Sweden

The Söndrum stone quarry (Halmstad, SW Sweden) exposes a transition from migmatized granitic gneissic country rock into a foliated clinopyroxene‐free granitic gneiss, and then a central pegmatoid dyke dominated by clinopyroxene megacrysts. This transition zone represents a fracture‐controlled, fluid‐alteration zone that developed under conditions of 650–700 °C and 790 MPa. Mineral chemical trends in F, Cl, Fe, Ti, Mn and Y are interpreted as documenting a fluid infiltration event associated with the formation of the pegmatoid dyke. Fluid inclusions from the pegmatoid dyke are CO₂ dominant, whereas in the surrounding country rock they are dominated by H₂O‐NaCl‐CaCl₂. Fluid inclusions from the intermediate foliated clinopyroxene‐free granitic gneiss are a mixture of the two types. The pegmatoid dyke appears to have originated from a high Ca activity, Fe‐Mg enriched, fluid‐rich granitic melt with a CO₂ component, which was emplaced along a tectonic fracture in a regionally migmatized granitic gneiss in the lower crust. This was accompanied by limited partial melting of the surrounding granitic gneiss. The Ca activity of the melt was high enough to allow for the formation of clinopyroxene megacrysts as opposed to orthopyroxene. H₂O‐enriched fluids expelled from the crystallizing pegmatoid dyke, which retained the majority of the CO₂ helping to stabilize the clinopyroxene. The expelled fluids coarsened and chemically affected the surrounding country rock resulting in trends in the mineral and fluid inclusion chemistry seen today in the foliated and regional granitic gneiss.     

Climatic and environmental changes during the Weichselian Lateglacial Interstadial in the Weerterbos region,the Netherlands

Lake sediment records from the Weerterbos region, in the southern Netherlands, were studied to reconstruct summer temperature and environmental changes during the Weichselian Lateglacial Interstadial. A sediment core obtained from a small lacustrine basin was analysed for multiple proxies, including lithological changes, oxygen isotopes of bulk carbonates, pollen and chironomids. It was found that the oxygen isotope record differed strongly from the other proxies. Based on a comparison with three additional lake sediment records from the same region, it emerged that the oxygen isotope records were strongly affected by local environmental conditions, impeding the distinction of a regional palaeoclimate signal. The chironomid‐inferred July air temperature reconstruction produced inferred interstadial temperatures ranging between ～15° and 18°C, largely consistent with previously published results from the northern part of the Netherlands. A temporary regressive phase in the pollen record, which can be tentatively correlated with the Older Dryas, preceded the expansion of birch woodland. Despite differences between the four pollen records from the Weerterbos region, a comparable regressive vegetation phase that was possibly the result of a shift to drier conditions could be discerned in all of the profiles. In addition, a temporary temperature decline of ～1.5°C was inferred from the chironomid record during this regressive phase. The multi‐proxy approach used here enabled a direct comparison of inferred changes in temperature, vegetation and environmental conditions at an individual site, while the multi‐site approach provided insight into the factors influencing the pollen and isotope records from these small‐scale depressions.     

Governing community forests and the challenge of solving two-level collective action dilemmas—A large-N perspective

The effectiveness of forest governance practices has consequences that range from the local to the global level. In general, the study of community forest governance relies heavily on case-study materials. The strength of single case and small-N comparative studies is related to the ability to uncover the nuances of time and place specific particularities. A recognized weakness of this approach relates to the fact that results cannot easily be extrapolated. For my analysis, I use a large-N, cross-national dataset instead. What constitutes an effective local forest governance regime? I show that especially monitoring – and to a lesser extent, maintenance – is correlated with improving forest conditions. When are effective governance regimes likely to emerge? I show that social capital, organization, leadership and autonomy contribute to the development of institutions for collective action. How does competition between forest users affect governance? I provide empirical evidence that two-level collective action dilemmas hinder the emergence of effective governance regimes.     

Sequence stratigraphy of coal‐bearing,high‐energy clastic units: The Maitland‐Cessnock‐Greta Coalfield and Cranky Corner Basin

Upper Carboniferous to Lower Permian sedimentary rocks extend along the periphery of the northern Sydney Basin, a sub‐basin of the Sydney‐Gunnedah‐Bowen Basin complex. The basin contains basal basalts and volcanic sediments deposited in a nascent rift zone. This rift zone was created through crustal thinning during trench rollback on the eastern edge of the New England Orogen. Thermal subsidence created accommodation for predominantly marine Dalwood Group sediments. Clastic sedimentation then occurred in the Maitland‐Cessnock‐Greta Coalfield and Cranky Corner Basin during the Early Permian. This occurred on a broad shelf undergoing renewed thermal subsidence on the margin of a rift flank of the Tamworth Belt of the southern New England Orogen. Braidplain fans prograded or aggraded in two depositional sequences. The first sequence commences near the top of the Farley Formation and includes part of the Greta Coal Measures, while the second sequence includes the majority of the Greta Coal Measures and basal Branxton Formation. Thin, areally restricted mires formed during interludes in a high sedimentation regime in the lowstand systems tracts. As base‐level rose, areally extensive mires developed on the transgressive surface of both sequences. A paludal to estuarine facies changed to a shallow‐marine facies as the braidplain was transgressed. The transgressive systems tracts continued to develop with rising relative sea‐level. Renewed uplift in the hinterland resulted in the erosion of part of the transgressive systems tract and all of the highstand systems tract of the lower sequence. In the upper sequence a reduction in relative sea‐level rise saw the development of a deltaic to nearshore shelf highstand systems tract. Extensional dynamics caused a fall in relative base‐level and the development of a sequence boundary in the Branxton Formation. Finally, renewed thermal subsidence created accommodation for the overlying, predominantly marine Maitland Group.     

Timing of massive ‘Fleuve Manche’ discharges over the last 350 kyr: insights into the European ice-sheet oscillations and the European drainage network from MIS 10 to 2

Continuous high-resolution mass accumulation rates (MAR) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements from marine sediment records in the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic) have allowed the determination of the timing and the amplitude of the ‘Fleuve Manche’ (Channel River) discharges during glacial stages MIS 10, MIS 8, MIS 6 and MIS 4–2. These results have yielded detailed insight into the Middle and Late Pleistocene glaciations in Europe and the drainage network of the western and central European rivers over the last 350 kyr. This study provides clear evidence that the ‘Fleuve Manche’ connected the southern North Sea basin with the Bay of Biscay during each glacial period and reveals that ‘Fleuve Manche’ activity during the glaciations MIS 10 and MIS 8 was significantly less than during MIS 6 and MIS 2. We correlate the significant ‘Fleuve Manche’ activity, detected during MIS 6 and MIS 2, with the extensive Saalian (Drenthe Substage) and the Weichselian glaciations, respectively, confirming that the major Elsterian glaciation precedes the glacial MIS 10. In detail, massive ‘Fleuve Manche’ discharges occurred at ca 155 ka (mid-MIS 6) and during Termination I, while no significant discharges are found during Termination II. It is assumed that a substantial retreat of the European ice sheet at ca 155 kyr, followed by the formation of ice-free conditions between the British Isles and Scandinavia until Termination II, allowed meltwater to flow northwards through the North Sea basin during the second part of the MIS 6. We assume that this glacial pattern corresponds to the Warthe Substage glacial maximum, therefore indicating that the data presented here equates to the Drenthe and the Warthe glacial advances at ca 175–160 ka and ca 150–140 ka, respectively. Finally, the correlation of our records with ODP site 980 reveals that massive ‘Fleuve Manche’ discharges, related to partial or complete melting of the European ice masses, were synchronous with strong decreases in both the rate of deep-water formation and the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. ‘Fleuve Manche’ discharges over the last 350 kyr probably participated, with other meltwater sources, in the collapse of the thermohaline circulation by freshening the northern Atlantic surface water.