气候变化对长江上游径流影响预估

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个气候模式在3种典型浓度路径(RCPs)下的预估结果驱动SWAT水文模型,预估了21世纪气候变化对长江上游年径流量、季节分配以及极端径流的影响。结果表明：预估的长江上游平均气温呈显著上升趋势,21世纪末较当前(1986—2005年)升高1.5~5.5℃,降水总体呈增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前气候平均值,21世纪末相对于当前增加5%~15%。流域内气候变化存在明显空间差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域气温升高和降水增加幅度均大于流域平均值。预估的长江上游年径流量及各月平均径流均有增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前多年平均值,21世纪中期增加4%~8%,21世纪末增加10%~15%。预估的径流年内分布的均匀性有所增加,但年际变化明显增大,极端旱涝事件的频率和强度明显增加。预估的各子流域径流变化对气候变化的响应也存在差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域年径流量、年际变化和年内分布变化小,对气候变化的响应表现为低敏感;嘉陵江流域、乌江流域和长江上游干流径流增加幅度大,同时极端丰枯出现的频率和程度增加显著,是气候变化响应的敏感区域。     

厌氧折流板反应器中酸化菌活性研究

本实验将厌氧折流板反应器控制在水解酸化阶段,以比INT脱氢酶活性来表征反应器中各室内的酸化菌活性。探讨了各格室酸化菌活性的变化规律,并对影响各室酸化菌活性的影响因素进行了分析。结果表明,在有机负荷2.4 kgCOD/（m³·d） 条件下,反应器中各室酸化率与酸化菌比INT脱氢酶活性成相关性,一室、二室的酸化率占总酸化率的73%;同一格室内比INT脱氢酶活性中部高于底部。     

Summer distribution and geochemical composition of suspended-particulate matter in the east china sea

The distribution and geochemical composition of suspended-particulate matter (SPM) in the East China Sea (ECS) were investigated during the summer period of high continental runoff to elucidate SPM sources, distribution and cross-shelf transport. The spatial variability of SPM distribution (0.3–6.5 mg l⁻¹) and geochemical composition (POC, Al, Si, Fe, Mn, Ca, Mg and K) in the ECS was pronounced during summer when the continental fluxes of freshwater and terrestrial materials were highest during the year. Under the influences of Changjiang runoff, Kuroshio intrusion, surface production and bottom resuspension, the distribution generally showed strong gradients decreasing seaward for both biogenic and lithogenic materials. Particulate organic carbon was enriched in surface water (mean ∼18%) due to the influence of biological productivity, and was diluted by resuspended and/or laterally-transported materials in bottom water (mean 9.4%). The abundance of lithogenic elements (Al, Si, Fe, Mn) increased toward the bottom, and the distribution correlations were highly significant. Particulate CaCO₃ distribution provided evidence that the SPM of the bottom water in the northern part of the study area was likely mixed with sediments originally derived from Huanghe. A distinct benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) was present in all seaward transects of the ECS shelf. Sediment resuspension may be caused by tidal fluctuation and other forcing and be regarded as the principal agent in the formation of BNL. This BNL was likely responsible for the transport of biogenic and lithogenic particles across or along the ECS shelf. Total inventories of SPM, POC and PN are 46, 2.8 and 0.4 Tg, respectively, measured over the total area of 0.45 × 10⁶ km² of the ECS shelf. Their mean residence times are about 27, 13 and 11 days, respectively. The inventory of SPM in the water column was higher in the northernmost and southernmost transects and lower in the middle transects, reflecting the influences of terrestrial inputs from Changjiang and/or resuspended materials from Huanghe deposits in the north and perhaps from Minjiang and/or Taiwan’s rivers in the south. The distribution and transport patterns of SPM and geochemical elements strongly indicate that continental sources and cross-shelf transport modulate ECS particulate matter in summer.     

Industrial structural changes in Hong Kong, China under one country, two systems framework

Hong Kong has undergone substantial economic transformations and developed into a sophisticated business and financial center in the Asia-Pacific region,since the return of sovereignty to China as a Special Administrative Region under the One Country Two Systems (OCTS) in 1997.This paper discusses and analyzes the industrial structural changes of Hong Kong in recent decades as well as its future challenges and opportunities.The data and finding reveal that even though Hong Kong will face fierce competition from the Mainland’s cities as the rise of China,the important role as a bridge between China and the rest of the world will brace Hong Kong itself under the OCTS for developing into a service hub for business and trade in the Asia-Pacific region.     

High-resolution subtropical summer precipitation derived from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/DOE reanalysis: how much small-scale information is added by a regional model?

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5° latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP/Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20?km resolution for 16 summer seasons (1990?C2005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20?km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93% (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92% (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.     

Physiological energetics of the fourth instar of Chinese horseshoe crabs (Tachypleus tridentatus) in response to hypoxic stress and re-oxygenation

Hypoxia associated with eutrophication is a potential threat to the Chinese horseshoe crab Tachypleus tridentatus which inhabits intertidal sand flats in Asia. This study investigated the effect of dissolved oxygen level (DO) (6, 4 and 2 mg O₂ l⁻¹) on the physiological energetics in the juvenile T. tridentatus. They were exposed to various oxygen levels for three days and then transferred to normoxia for three days to examine the recovery from low oxygen stress. Feeding rate, respiration rate and scope for growth were reduced at lower DO levels while absorption efficiency and excretion rate were independent of DO levels. Although full recovery of the physiological responses and scope for growth from hypoxis stress was observed when normoxia resumed, their long term survival in suboptimal habitats with frequent occurrence of hypoxia deserves a close monitoring as hypoxia may be even more common in future in a warming world.     

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.     

A note on the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on small amplitude water-wave propagation

In this note we investigated the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on wave propagation. Within the framework of linear water-wave theory, analytical solutions are obtained for damping rate, dispersion relation between wave frequency and wave number, and velocity components in the water column and mud layer. The wave attenuation rate reaches a maximum value when the mud layer thickness is about the same as the mud boundary layer thickness. Heavier mud has a weaker effect on the wave damping. However, the wave attenuation rate does not always decrease as the elastic shear modulus increases. In the range of small values for elastic shear modulus, the wave attenuation can be amplified quite significantly. The current solutions are compared with experimental data with different wave conditions and mud properties. In general, good agreements are observed.     

荒漠绿洲湿地土壤水热盐动态过程及其影响机制

以甘肃临泽荒漠绿洲湿地为研究对象,通过对土壤温度、含水量、电导率及蒸散量的野外观测,在植物生长期和冻融期分别深入分析水热盐耦合运移过程及其影响因素,探讨水热梯度对盐分运移及其分布格局的控制作用。结果表明：土壤温度整体呈现出春夏季逐渐升高、秋冬季降低趋势。在冻结期,土壤表现为脱盐状态,表层电导率由2.8 mS·cm^-1降到1.2 mS·cm^-1;而在消融期为积盐状态,表层电导率由1.2 mS·cm^-1升到3.7 mS·cm^-1。在生长期,土壤含水量和电导率波动较为剧烈,表层含水量27%~43%,表层电导率3~5.5 mS·cm^-1,土壤脱盐、积盐反复出现。全年蒸散量总体呈单峰变化趋势,年蒸散量507 mm;土壤电导率与蒸散量呈正比关系,与地下水位呈负相关关系;蒸散发作用是土壤表层积盐的主要驱动力,而地下水波动影响着湿地脱盐、洗盐过程。因此,荒漠绿洲湿地土壤盐分累积过程是水分运移和热量传输过程发生变化的结果。     

下三叠统鲕粒灰岩中微生物矿化组构特征及意义 ——以川东北地区飞仙关组为例

PTB全球最大生物灭绝事件后,早三叠世被认为是微生物发育繁殖的黄金时期,浅水环境是微生物活动及微生物岩形成的最有利环境。借助高分辨率扫描电镜和能谱分析,在川东北地区开江—梁平海槽西侧下三叠统飞仙关组浅水碳酸盐岩台地边缘的鲕粒灰岩中发现了三种微生物矿化组构:空腔状微生物矿化组构、显微瘤状微生物矿化组构和纤状微生物矿化组构;通过沉积学、岩石学及地球化学的综合分析,认为显微瘤状微生物矿化组构是微生物新陈代谢时形成的纳米球状云质颗粒,纤状微生物矿化组构是微生物的胞外聚合物,而空腔状微生物矿化组构则属于微生物个体。这些微生物矿化组构的发现,为早三叠世微生物大爆发提供了一定的直观证据;推测大量的微生物活动是早三叠世碳酸盐快速沉积现象的直接诱因,并导致于二叠纪末发育的克拉通内裂陷——开江—梁平海槽在早三叠世被快速填平。