Sensitivity analysis of a morphodynamic modelling system applied to a coastal lagoon inlet

This work investigates the recent morphological changes at the inlet of a complex coastal system (Ria de Aveiro lagoon, Portugal). This study was carried out using bathymetric data analysis and numerical simulations obtained with the 2DH morphodynamic modelling system MORSYS2D. The present simulations considered only tidal forcing, and a sensitivity analysis was performed by tuning the formula used to compute the sediment transports. A non-uniform sediment grain size distribution for the Ria de Aveiro inlet is considered in the numerical simulations, based on surveys performed in this area. The model results are analysed to assess if they resemble the observed trends of erosion and deposition, as calculated from bathymetric data. A quantitative analysis of the differences between the bathymetric changes obtained through surveys and the numerical results over a period of 3 years considering different sediment transport formulations shows that the formulations of Ackers and White (1973) and Engelund and Hansen (1967) are the ones that best describe the morphodynamic changes driven by tides in the Ria de Aveiro inlet.     

Evaluation of horizontal gradients in sigma‐coordinate shallow water models

Abstract

Evaluating horizontal gradients in three‐dimensional shallow water models that use bottom‐following sigma coordinates can lead to large errors near steep bathymetry. A technique that has been proposed to minimize this problem involves computing horizontal gradients in cartesian coordinates, while treating all other terms in a sigma coordinate framework. We study this technique through both truncation error analysis and numerical experimentation, and compare it to the direct application of sigma coordinates. While the Cartesian coordinate method has better convergence properties and generally smaller truncation errors when horizontal gradients are zero, the sigma coordinate method can be more accurate in other physically relevant situations. Also, the Cartesian coordinate method introduces significant numerical diffusion of variable sign near the bottom (where physical diffusion is particularly small), thus potentially leading to instabilities. Overall, we consider the sigma coordinates to be the best approach.     

Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast

Natural Hazards - Decadal predictions bridge the gap between the short-term weather/seasonal forecasts and the long-term climate projections. They target the reproduction of large-scale weather...     

Observation of Conditions Preceding Peak Indoor Air Volatile Organic Compound Concentrations in Vapor Intrusion Studies

Temporal and spatial variability of indoor air volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations can complicate vapor intrusion (VI) assessment and decision-making. Indicators and tracers (I&T) of VI, such as differential temperature, differential pressure, and indoor radon concentration, are low-cost lines of evidence to support sampling scheduling and interpretation of indoor air VOC sampling results. This study compares peak indoor air chlorinated VOC concentrations and I&T conditions before and during those peak events at five VI sites. The sites differ geographically and in their VI conceptual site models (CSM). Relative to site-specific baseline values, the results show that cold or falling outdoor temperatures, rising cross slab differential pressures, and increasing indoor radon concentrations can predict peak VOC concentrations. However, cold outdoor air temperature was not useful at one site where elevated shallow soil temperature was a better predictor. Correlations of peak VOC concentrations to elevated or rising barometric pressure and low wind speed were also observed with some exceptions. This study shows how the independent variables that control or predict peak indoor air VOC concentrations are specific to building types, climates, and VI CSMs. More I&T measurements at VI sites are needed to identify scenario-specific baseline and peak related I&T conditions to improve decision-making.     

Space and time variability of uncertainty in morphodynamic simulations

The uncertainty associated with simulations of process-based coastal area morphodynamic models is assessed through numerical experimentation. Appropriate metrics of uncertainty are defined based on the standard deviation of the model results at each location and each time step. Uncertainty is examined using a set of realistic one year morphodynamic simulations of the evolution of a highly dynamic tidal inlet. Results indicate that uncertainty increases linearly with time, and suggest that its rate grows with increasing sediment fluxes. Hence, the limits of predictability of morphodynamic model applications are higher for slowly varying systems. Attempts to reduce uncertainty by aggregating model results at larger spatial scales met with limited success. Ensemble simulations are suggested as a possible avenue to investigate the long-term evolution of tidal inlets using process-based models.     

Microwave observations of the 4 January, 1973 solar eclipse

The eclipse was observed at two microwave frequencies, 7 GHz and 22.2 GHz, and has shown the presence of polarized regions, suggesting also excess of left-handed polarized radiation from the solar northern hemisphere. Difference in eclipsing times at the two frequencies for an active center near the limb is discussed.     

Modeling fecal contamination in the Aljezur coastal stream (Portugal)

This study aims at understanding the fecal contamination behavior in a small coastal stream (Aljezur, Portugal), which has significant economic and ecological values. Like in most small coastal systems, circulation and water renewal in the Aljezur stream exhibit a strong variability due to their dependence on tides, waves, intermittent river flows, and a highly variable morphology. Hence, the problem was approached through a combination of field surveys and the development and application of a hard-coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and fecal contamination model. Salinity and temperature results have shown that mixing and transport in the stream are very sensitive to the river flow and wind forcing. The model is able to represent the main patterns and trends observed in Escherichia coli and fecal enterococcus concentrations along the stream, for different environmental and contamination conditions, suggesting die-off rates on the order of 0.50–0.55 day⁻¹. Die-off rate and the representation of the sediment-associated processes were identified as the major remaining sources of uncertainty in the model. Results show that, owing to the processes that occur along the stream, fecal bacteria reach the beaches water in numbers that comply with the European Bathing Waters Directive, even during the summer periods when the upstream concentrations are larger. In particular, results suggest a direct relation between the tidal propagation upstream and the reduction of the fecal bacteria concentrations along the stream that can be relevant for the development of a strategy for the management of the system’s water safety.     

Recent population trends of sooty and light-mantled albatrosses breeding on Marion Island

Sub-Antarctic Marion Island is one of the few islands where both species of Phoebetria albatrosses breed sympatrically. The last published assessment of their population trends, which reported counts up to 2008, concluded that the numbers of breeding pairs of sooty albatross P. fusca (Endangered) were decreasing, whereas numbers of light-mantled albatross P. palpebrata (Near Threatened) were increasing. Extending the counts to 2014 reversed these trends, with numbers of sooty albatrosses increasing from 2006 to 2014, and numbers of light-mantled albatrosses decreasing from 2007 to 2014. Confidence in island-wide counts is low due to the cryptic nature of the albatrosses on their largely inaccessible cliff-side nest sites, as well as counts for sooty albatrosses taking place late in the incubation period when 10?20% of nests have already failed. Given the greater conservation concern for the sooty albatross, we recommend that dedicated annual counts be conducted during the early incubation period, and be repeated shortly after the chicks hatch (late December), mid-way through the nestling period (late February) and prior to fledging (late April), to give a better idea of breeding success. Count zones also should be revised to facilitate more accurate counts, ensuring more reliable estimates of sooty albatross population trends at Marion Island.     

A modeling-based analysis of processes driving wave-dominated inlets

Among the different types of tidal inlets, wave-dominated inlets have been subjected to few quantitative studies, so that the physical processes controlling their dynamics are not fully understood. This study presents the application of a coastal area morphodynamic modeling system to a wave-dominated inlet (Óbidos Inlet, western coast of Portugal), in order to investigate the physical processes responsible for channel development during fair weather conditions and shoaling during periods of larger waves. The modeling system was able to reproduce reasonably well morphological changes at the Óbidos Inlet and subsequent tidal amplitude evolutions inside the lagoon over a period which includes 3 months of fair weather conditions, followed by 2 months representative of winter conditions. The inlet development during fair weather conditions was attributed to the strong ebb-dominance of the main channel without waves, enhanced by the combination of shallow channels and a meso-tidal range. The inlet infilling during the maritime winter was attributed to three main wave-induced mechanisms: (1) the onshore component of wave radiation stresse gradients, which is not fully compensated by the wave-induced setup in front of the inlet; (2) the acceleration and convergence of longshore transport toward the inlet, due to the presence of a strong lateral gradient in free surface elevation on both sides of the inlet, and, to a smaller extent, to wave refraction around the ebb-delta; and (3) the increase in mean water level inside the lagoon, which reduces tidal asymmetry and subsequent ebb-dominance.     

Refining image-velocimetry performances for streamflow monitoring: Seeding metrics to errors minimization

River streamflow monitoring is currently facing a transformation due to the emerging of new innovative technologies. Fixed and mobile measuring systems are capable of quantifying surface flow velocities and discharges, relying on video acquisitions. This camera-gauging framework is sensitive to what the camera can “observe” but also to field circumstances such as challenging weather conditions, river background transparency, transiting seeding characteristics, among others. This short communication paper introduces the novel idea of optimizing image velocimetry techniques selecting the most informative sequence of frames within the available video. The selection of the optimal frame window is based on two reasonable criteria: (a) the maximization of the number of frames, subject to (b) the minimization of the recently introduced dimensionless seeding distribution index (SDI). SDI combines seeding characteristics such as seeding density and spatial clustering of tracers, which are used as a proxy to enhance the reliability of image velocimetry techniques. Two field case studies were considered as a proof-of-concept of the proposed framework, on which seeding metrics were estimated and averaged in time to select the proper application window. The selected frames were analysed using LSPIV to estimate the surface flow velocities and river discharge. Results highlighted that the proposed framework might lead to a significant error reduction. In particular, the computed discharge errors, at the optimal portion of the footage, were about 0.40% and 0.12% for each case study, respectively. These values were lower than those obtained, considering all frames available.