Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

This study evaluates impacts from tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on populated areas located along the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. The period of interest is from 1970 through 2010 and an international disaster database is used to identify the impact from the landfalling TCs. More than 30 landfall events occurred during the period; we examined the top 25 TCs based on rainfall accumulation, as well as the top 10 TC-related disasters based on the affected population. Each event resulted in affected population from 20 000 to more than 800 000. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, during periods of one to three days, are associated with property damage and loss of lives. Our results indicate that excessive rainfall accumulations and daily rates, over highly populated areas, are important elements associated with the occurrence of disasters. Six of the top 10 TC-related disasters occurred during El Niño and three during neutral conditions; however, looking at the top 25 events, 10 occurred during El Niño and 10 during neutral conditions. Three case studies that occurred during El Niño events (Liza in 1976, Pauline in 1997, and Lane in 2006) are documented in more detail as they affected areas with different population densities in the southern and northwestern coasts of Mexico.     

Nutrient mediated stress on the marine communities of a coastal lagoon (Puerto Galera, Philippines)

Puerto Galera Bay is a coastal lagoon with a variety of marine habitats and high species diversity. It is an area in the Phillippines where the growing influence of human activities is affecting the quality of its marine resources. This study examined the distribution and behaviour of nutrients and the physical hydrography of Puerto Galera Bay and determined how its physico-chemical nature affected the condition of biotic components in the bay. The relative importance of the nitrogen and phosphorus signals were used as indicators to implicate the influence of sewage and run-off into the bay. A nutrient pool accumulated in the bay as a result of low flushing rates. The interaction of hydrodynamic forcing with the biota have implications on the phytoplankton production and coral communities in the area.     

Predicted relative sea-level changes (18,000 years B.P. to present) caused by late-glacial retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Predictions of global changes in relative sea level caused by retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from its 18,000 yr B.P. maximum to its present size are calculated numerically. When combined with the global predictions of relative sea-level change resulting from retreat of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, the results may be compared directly to observations of sea-level change on the Antarctic continent as well as at distant localities. The comparison of predictions to the few observations of sea-level change on Antarctica supports the view that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was larger 18,000 years ago than at present. The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the total eustatic sea-level rise is assumed to be 25 m (25% of the assumed total eustatic rise). If as little as 0.7 m of this 25-m rise occurred between 5000 yr B.P. and the present, few mid-oceanic islands would emerge. If the Antarctic Ice Sheet attained its present dimensions by 6000 yr B.P., however, and if the volume of the ocean has remained constant for the past 5000 years, numerous islands throughout the Southern Hemisphere would emerge. It is suggested that a thorough study of Pacific islands, believed by some to have slightly emerged shorelines of Holocene age, would yield useful information about ocean volume changes during the past 5000 years, and hence on the glacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

A Comparison of amphiboles from medium- and low-pressure metabasites

A comparison of published metabasite amphibole analyses from medium and low-pressure metamorphic terrains reveals that there is no systematic variation in Na, Na^M4, Al or Al^VI as a function of pressure. This may be due to blurring of the differences by variation in oxidation state, or by analytical differences between laboratories. It is not due to variable Mg/Fe in whole rocks. Differences that can be recognised are generally higher Ti/Al ratios in the low-pressure amphiboles, and a very poorly developed compositional gap between actinolite and hornblende compared with a well-developed gap at medium pressures. These features, together with the relatively low-grade appearance of calcic plagioclase at low pressures, provide the best means of distinguishing metabasites from the two facies series.All three features can be explained by the configuration of cation-exchange equilibria at the greenschist/amphibolite facies boundary. Enrichment in Ti at low-pressures is due to the positive slope of reactions partitioning Ti into the amphibole. The composition gap in amphiboles at medium-pressure is due to overstepping of the tschermakite-enriching equilibrium. At low pressures this overstepping still occurs, but the equilibrium tschermakite-content in the amphibole is much lower for a given amount of overstepping. The relatively low-grade appearance of oligoclase at low pressures is due to convergence of the tschermakite and anorthite-enriching equilibria with decreasing pressure.     

Seismic velocity imaging of the Kumaon–Garhwal Himalaya,India

Natural Hazards - Since the initial collision at 55 Ma, rocks of the Indian crust below the Himalayas have undergone modification chemically and compositionally due to the ongoing...     

Coral reef education in schools of Quintana Roo, Mexico

Coral reefs are vital to the livelihood of coastal communities in Quintana Roo, México and the preservation of these ecosystems relies on the establishment of protected areas. Education should be one of the most important management tools in coral reef preservation. Surveys were made among primary and secondary school students of Quintana Roo to determine the level of education regarding coral reefs and their importance. Students had little awareness about reefs. Coverage of coral reef issues is insufficient in school curricula and information media. Many students will leave school and become users of the reef with little understanding of it and of the consequences of exploitation of the reef. Creation of marine parks has not increased education and public awareness. There is an immediate need to establish appropriate and continuously available educational programs in order to preserve coral reefs. Education should encourage codes of behavior and community support to management issues.     

Aetideus and Euaetideus (copepoda: Calanoida) from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

The genus Euaetideus Sars, 1925 is here merged with Aetideus Brady, 1883 (Copepoda : Calanoida : Aetideidae). Three new species of the genus Aetideus are described from the Pacific as well as the males of three other known species. A key is given to the known males and females in the genus Aetideus. The closely related genera Paivella and Snelliaetideus are compared with Aetideus.