Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England

This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure; downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology.     

Impacts of Large Planetesimals on the Early Earth

We considered the impacts of very large cosmic bodies (with radii in the range 100–200 to 1000–2000 km) on the early Earth, whose mass, radius and density distribution are close to the current values. The impacts of such bodies were possible during the first hundreds of million years after the formation of the Earth and the Moon. We present and analyze the results of a numerical simulation of the impact of a planetesimal, the size of which is equal to that of the contemporary Moon (1700 km). In three-dimensional computations, the velocity (15 and 30 km/s) and the angle (45°, 60°, and 90°) of the impact are varied. We determined the mass losses and traced the evolution of the shape of the Earth's surface, taking into account the self-consistent gravitational forces that arise in the ejected and remaining materials in accordance with the real, time-dependent mass distribution. Shock waves reflected from the core are shown to propagate from the impact site deep into the Earth. The core undergoes strong, gradually damped oscillations. Although motions in the Earth's mantle gradually decline, they have enough time to put the Earth in a rotational motion. As a result, a wave travels over the Earth's surface, whose amplitude, in the case of an oblique impact, depends on the direction of the wave propagation. The maximum height of this wave is tremendous—it attains several hundred kilometers. Some portion of the ejected material (up to 40% of the impactor mass) falls back onto Earth under the action of gravity. This portion is equivalent to the layer of a condensed material with a thickness on the order of ten kilometers. The appearance of this hot layer should result in a global melting of near-surface layers, which can limit the age of terrestrial rocks by the time of the impact under consideration. For lesser-sized impactors, say, for impactors with radii of about 160 km, the qualitative picture resembles that described above but the amplitude of disturbances is considerably smaller. This amplitude, however, is sufficient to cause a crustal disruption (if such a crust has already formed) and intense volcanic activity.     

Origin of spongy textures in clinopyroxene and spinel from mantle xenoliths, Hessian Depression, Germany

Summary Spongy textures are observed in anhydrous Group 1 mantle xenoliths (harzburgite, lherzolite and wehrlite) hosted in Tertiary alkali basaltic lavas from the Hessian Depression, Germany. These textures are developed only on clinopyroxene and spinel, and occur as rims or cross-cutting veinlets and patches showing optical continuity with the host grain. They are often associated with pools of amorphous glassy material. There is no preferential development of spongy domains against the xenolith-lava contact suggesting that the host magma did not play any significant role in their formation. Spongy clinopyroxene and spinel occur in all rock types, but, are more pervasive in wehrlite. Chemically, spongy domains of clinopyroxene and spinel are more refractory than unaffected areas, which is consistent with their formation through a partial melting event. The associated glassy material shows chemical characteristics which suggest that the melt pools are genetically related to the development of the spongy textures. The partial melting event was probably triggered by the infiltration of a low-density fluid. The fluid may have evolved from a silicate melt responsible for the metasomatic Fe-enrichment recorded in wehrlite. In this context, the more pervasive development of spongy clinopyroxene in wehrlite may be explained by a higher concentration of the evolved fluid phase at proximity to its silicate melt source. Received March 15, 2000; revised version accepted September 6, 2001     

黑龙江嘉荫地区白垩纪-第三纪界线初步观察

本文报道了黑龙江嘉荫白山头地区一条新的地层剖面及其K／T界线的初步研究。新命名的“白山头段”代表乌云组下部的早古新世地层,含以Tiliaephyllum tsagajanicum等为代表的达宁早期植物化石。在白山头剖面上,作者发现可能为白垩纪末期的凝灰岩。结合与俄罗斯布列亚盆地含K／T界线的查加扬群标准剖面的对比,推测嘉荫地区的K／T界线可能位于白山头段底部与上述凝灰岩之上的一层炭质泥岩之间。     

Historical changes in sediments of Pyramid Lake,Nevada, USA: consequences of changes in the water balance of a terminal desert lake

Sediment cores from the shallow and deep basins of Pyramid Lake, Nevada, revealed variations in composition with depth reflecting changes in lake level, river inflow, and lake productivity. Recent sediments from the period of historical record indicate: (1) CaCO₃ and organic content of sediment in the shallow basin decrease at lower lake level, (2) CaCO₃ content of deep basin sediments increases when lake level decreases rapidly, and (3) the inorganic P content of sediments increases with decreasing lake volume. Variations in sediment composition also indicate several periods for which productivity in Pyramid Lake may have been elevated over the past 1000 years. Our data provide strong evidence for increased productivity during the first half of the 20th Century, although the typical pattern for cultural eutrophication was not observed. The organic content of sediments also suggests periods of increased productivity in the lake prior to the discovery and development of the region by white settlers. Indeed, a broad peak in organic fractions during the 1800's originates as an increase starting around 1600. However, periods of changing organic content of sediments also correspond to periods when inflow to the lake was probably at extremes (e.g. drought or flood) indicating that fluctuations in river inflow may be an important factor affecting sediment composition in Pyramid Lake.     

The history and impact of air pollution at Čertovo Lake,southwestern Czech Republic

This multi-disciplinary investigation documents the longterm effects of atmospheric pollution of metals and acids on a geologically sensitive catchment in the umava Mountains, southwestern Czech Republic, a region with a long history of human disturbance. A 30 cm long sediment core (I) from ertovo Lake was analyzed for natural and artifical radionuclides, metals, diatoms, chrysophytes, and pollen in sediments accumulated during the last 200 years. A second core (II), extending to 95 cm, included sediment judged to be free of atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the Industrial Revolution. Chronostratigraphic markers include several changes in the pollen assemblages corresponding to well-documented changes in land-use, and distinct distributions of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs and ²⁴¹Am from weapons testing and the 1986 nuclear accident at Chernobyl, Russia. These markers corroborate the ²¹⁰Pb dating and, together, produce a reliable chronology extending back nearly to 1800 A.D.Stratigraphic profiles of Cu, Pb, and Zn in Core I are unlike any previously reported in the literature. Concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn remain generally above 100, 400, and 200 g g^-1, respectively, for the 200 years represented by Core I. These values are unusually high for sediments from a watershed with no known heavy-metal ore bodies. Accumulation rates for Cu, Pb, and Zn, which include both atmospheric and watershed contributions, are also high (ca 1, > 1 and > 1 g cm^-2 yr^-1, respectively) for the same period, although the anthropogenic contribution of Zn rose from nearly zero at 1800 A.D. The Cu and Pb accumulation rates rose dramatically about 1640 A.D.Accumulation rates of anthropogenically-derived Be, a relatively abundant element in the soft coals of the region, are also elevated by about 0.01 g cm^-2 yr^-1 in sediments of this period. Vanadium accumulation rates increased only since 1980 A.D., presumably along with increased consumption of oil.Diatom assemblages illustrate that the lake was acidic (pH between 4.5 and 5) through at least the past 200 years. The pH declined significantly (from ca 5 to 4) between 1960 and 1985 with a slight increase to 4.5 in the last few years. Recent diatom and chrysophyte assemblages suggest high trace metal concentrations, consistent with the present lake-water chemistry.     

Grass cover density and metal speciation in profiles of a tailings-pile from a mining zones in Zacatecas,North-Central Mexico

The 7-year-old mine tailings pile P2 from Concepción del Oro has been revegetated spontaneously by xerophyte grasses, covering about the 30% of its surface. To elucidate the effect of the grass cover in the geochemical behavior of the sulfide minerals (SM) and metals, the strata of four selected profiles (P2-I, P2-II, P2-III and P2-IV, with high, middle, low, and null grass cover, respectively) were analyzed mineralogically and chemically, using scanner electron microscopy, X-ray diffractometer and performing a six-step sequential extraction method. An older (50-year-old) and uncovered (without grass cover) profile of the tailings pile P3 was also analyzed. In all the profiles from P2, the SM oxidation is not yet an extended process; however, the samples from the uncovered profile P2-IV showed evidences of SM (pyrite and chalcocite) oxidation, as well as the presence of gypsum and Fe oxides, as the major secondary phases resulted from the SM oxidation. Additionally, the carbonate content and pH values in P2-IV were lower than in the covered profiles from P2. The oldest and uncovered P3-I profile showed an extensive oxidation of sulfurs which resulted in the depletion of carbonates and a pH 2. Another distinctive characteristics of the covered profiles was that Pb, Cu, and Zn were mainly associated with the reducible fractions (carbonates and/or amorphous oxides); meanwhile, in the uncovered (P2-IV and P3-I) such metals were mainly associated with the oxidizable fraction (crystalline oxides). The results suggest that the mineralogical transformations control metal stability in plant-covered impoundments (phytostabilization): the occurrence of a thick grass cover, with an efficient water usage and retention, seems to shun both the acidic dissolution of carbonates and the reductive dissociation of the formerly present oxyhydroxides, which is desired for remediation tasks. This is the first report about the effects of grass cover for a carbonaceous and unsaturated mine tailings from a semiarid region, that can help in a better understanding of the scope of phytoremediation in such conditions.     

Sulphur saturation in the lower and critical zones of the Eastern Bushveld Complex

A suite of ultramafic and mafic rocks from the lower, critical and lower portion of the main zones of the Bushveld Complex has been analysed for Th, Cs, Zr, Ni, Cr and Au by INAA and XRF spectrometry. The incompatible elements Th, Cs, and Zr correlate positively, and show a gradual upward increase in abundance. Assuming constant average proportion of intercumulus material, this upward increase implies that the zones of the Complex studied represent crystallization of a single magma type some 3600 m thick. Pyroxenites dominate the lower portion of the section studied and their Ni content shows an initial rapid decrease from 850 ppm in the lowermost rocks, to around 500 ppm, with considerable scatter. This distribution is most likely to have resulted from bottom crystallization with superimposed convective overturn near the transient floor of the chamber. Gold abundances are generally higher in chromitites, and correlate positively with Ni, indicating the presence of significant amounts of cumulus immiscible sulphide. In the silicate rocks, Au does not correlate with any of the analysed elements, and it is concluded that Au was trapped in small quantities of immiscible sulphide which precipitated continuously during crystallization. There is an upward increase in the amount of cumulus immiscible sulphide, indicating a progressive increase in sulphur solubility in the magma.     

Evolution of sedimentary basins from the standpoint of petroleum origin and accumulation—an approach for a quantitative basin study

Generation, migration and accumulation of petroleum in a sedimentary basin is a function of geologic, hydrodynamic and thermodynamic development of the basin and the type and amount of organic matter. Temperature history not only determines rate of hydrocarbon generation, but also affects paleohydrodynamics and physical and thermal properties vs depth relationships. Therefore, paleotemperature is the most important parameter. Paleohydrodynamics together with geologic history of the basin is important in shaping secondary migration patterns and accumulation of hydrocarbons.Quantification of all the above processes is complicated. Steps in constructing a deterministic dynamic model for calculation of petroleum potential during a sedimentary basin development are stated and analyzed in this paper. The effect of paleotemperature variations on petroleum generation and on physical properties of sedimentary sequences are illustrated by numerical examples. Computer models will enable exploration geologists to make quantitative exploration predictions in sedimentary basins.