TRACKING THE BABY BOOM,THE BABY BUST,AND THE ECHO GENERATIONS: HOW AGE COMPOSITION REGULATES US MIGRATION*

US regional and state migration data from the 1940s–80s, when members of the baby boom generation aged into their years of peak labor force mobility, suggest ways in which changing age composition regulates geographical mobility and interregional migration. Labor supply pressure plays a key role in the dynamics of the national migration system. A “delayed mobility” effect in the 1980s similar to the delayed fertility of the baby boom cohorts appears to be a result of the depressed rates of mobility experienced by members of this generation when they flooded regional labor markets with record numbers of entrants in the 1970s. Recent temporal shifts in age-specific volumes of interregional migration help predict the future pace of migration based upon the projected age distribution of the nation.     

Estimation of uncertainties in eigenspectral estimates from decaying geophysical time series

Summary. The response of many dynamical systems to an impulse is a linear combination of decaying cosines. The frequencies of the cosines have generally been estimated in geophysics by periodogram analysis and little formal indication of uncertainty has been provided. This work presents an estimation procedure by the methods of complex demodulation and nonlinear regression that specifically incorporates in the basic model the decaying aspect of the cosines (periodogram analysis does not). The use of plots of the instantaneous phase as a function of time is shown to greatly enhance resolution. Expressions for the variances of eigenfrequencies, amplitudes, phases and damping constants Q are derived by non-linear least-squares. The results are illustrated, for the problem of the free oscillations of the Earth, by computations with the record made at Trieste of the Chilean earthquake of 1960 May 22. Sample values are periods and standard errors of 737.79 ± 0.13 s, 506.25 ± 0.13 s and 429.60 ± 0.14 s for ₀ T ₈, ₀ T ₁₃ and ₀ T ₁₆ with Q values and standard errors of 200 ± 14, 230 ± 28 and 215 ± 30, respectively.     

Deformability properties of model granular soils under true triaxial compression conditions

The study presents a review of modifications to the design of true triaxial test apparatuses and described a new mixed boundary apparatus to study the stress-strain behavior of coarse-grained soil under true triaxial compression conditions. It was shown that the deviatoric component plays an important role in affecting the volumetric compression of coarse-grained soil. The study analyzed the influence of different stress-strain characteristics on the development of lateral earth pressure.     

Superposition of gold mineralisation on pre‐existing carbonate alteration: Structural evidence from the Mulgarrie gold deposit,Yilgarn Craton

Carbonate alteration at the Mulgarrie gold mine in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia, is represented by porphyroblasts, veins and pervasive, texturally destructive, carbonatisation. Two foliations, S_1M and S_2M, were produced by two separate deformation events at the mine‐scale, D_1M and D_2M. D_1M and D_2M both occurred in response to regional D₂ tectonism. Carbonate alteration was the product of two separate episodes of fluid ingress: the earlier produced magnesite and the latter Fe‐dolomite. Both periods of carbonate alteration occurred pre‐ to early syn‐D_2M, when mafic to ultramafic komatiitic rocks reacted with fluids that moved along regional faults and pre‐date the alteration associated with regional peak metamorphism. Gold at Mulgarrie overprints pre‐ and late syn‐D₂ quartz veins in zones of massive carbonate alteration, suggesting it has a late‐ to post‐D₂ timing. This late timing agrees with the generally accepted syn‐D₃ (and younger) age for gold mineralisation in the Eastern Goldfields. We suggest that carbonate alteration at Mulgarrie is not a product of the hydrothermal event responsible for the gold mineralisation. Rather, the different relative timing of magnesite, Fe‐dolomite and gold indicates there were two carbonate‐producing fluid systems and a fluid transporting the gold overprinted these. Similarly, early carbonate alteration may play a role in localising auriferous vein deposits throughout the Yilgarn and other Archaean cratons.     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

Measurements of radio noise at 0.700 mc and 2.200 mc from a high-altitude rocket probe

Radio noise observations at frequencies of 0·700 Mc and 2·200 Mc were made at altitudes between 3000 and 11,000 km from a Blue Scout Jr. high-altitude rocket probe on 30 July 1963. A steady background flux of (7·5₋₃⁺⁶) × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻²)(c/s)⁻¹ at 0·700 Mc and (1·8^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ at 2·200 Mc was observed. Assuming a galactic origin of the observed fluxes at both frequencies, the averaged sky brightnesses are b(0·700 Mc) = (6₋₃⁺⁵) × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹b(2·200 Mc) = (1.4^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹ The observed brightness at 2·200 Mc is in reasonable agreement with the results of other observers. The apparent brightness at 0·700 Mc is, however, greater than was expected from previous observations. An alternative source of the 0·700 Mc flux in the terrestrial exosphere, as well as characteristics of several noise bursts observed during the flight, is briefly discussed.     

An assessment of geologic sequestration potential in the panhandle of Florida USA

One alternative to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is to store the emissions in underground geologic sequestration repositories. The efficacy of this approach has been favorably evaluated by numerous authors over the last 15 years. This paper discusses an assessment of the overall feasibility of storing emissions in three different repositories in the Florida panhandle located in the Southeastern United States. The feasibility assessment evaluates both saline aquifers and oil reservoirs located in the panhandle region. The overall feasibility is driven by the available geologic sequestration capacity, the transportation cost to deliver emissions to a respective repository, and other engineering and regulatory issues. The geologic sequestration capacity is generally controlled by the so-called storage efficiency, a variable dependent on the site-specific geology, reservoir conditions, and the injected fluid characteristics. For this paper, storage efficiency for saline repositories was assessed in more detail using numerical modeling. Based on the work completed, the 3 repositories studied have at least 4.55 gigatonnes of capacity to sequester CO₂.