Combined method for detecting hidden anomalies in galactic cosmic ray variations

A method has been proposed for detecting hidden periodicities in nonstationary finite time series with strong noise. The successive application of the spectral singular expansion and wavelet transform makes it possible to calculate the energy of short signals with an arbitrary form against a suppressing noise back-ground, the amplitude of which is several times as large as that of a useful signal. This method has been used to identify variations in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux related to IMF disturbances due to the earthward propagation of solar magnetic clouds in the heliosphere.     

Numerical modelling of the transverse dynamic behaviour of circular tunnels in clayey soils

In this paper, different approaches aimed at investigating the dynamic behaviour of circular tunnels in the transverse direction are presented. The analysed cases refer to a shallow tunnel built in two different clayey deposits. The adopted approaches include 1D numerical analyses performed modelling the soil as a single-phase visco-elastic non-linear medium, the results of which are then used to evaluate the input data for selected analytical solutions proposed in the literature (uncoupled approach), and 2D fully coupled FE simulations adopting visco-elastic and visco-elasto-plastic effective stress models for the soil (coupled approach). The results are proposed in terms of seismic-induced loads in the transverse direction of the tunnel lining. The different constitutive hypotheses adopted in the coupled numerical approach prove to play a significant role on the results. In particular, the plasticity-based analyses indicate that a seismic event can produce a substantial modification of loads acting in the lining, leading to permanent increments of both hoop force and bending moment.     

Modeling 3D thermal fracture propagation by transient cooling using virtual multidimensional internal bonds

Thermal fracturing can play an important role in development of unconventional petroleum and geothermal resources. Thermal fractures can result from the nonlinear deformation of the rock in response to thermal stress related to cold water injection as well as heating. Before the rock reaches the final failure stage, material softening and bulk modulus degradation can cause changes in the thermo‐mechanical properties of the solid. In order to capture this aspect of the rock fracture, a virtual multidimensional internal bond‐based thermo‐mechanical model is derived to track elastic, softening, and the failure stages of the rock in response to the temporal changes of its temperature field. The variations in thermo‐mechanical properties of the rock are derived from a nonlinear constitutive model. To represent the thermo‐mechanical behavior of pre‐existing fractures, the element partition method is employed. Using the model, numerical simulation of 3D thermal fracture propagation in brittle rock is carried out. Results of numerical simulations provide evidence of model verification and illustrate nonlinear thermal response and fracture development in rock under uniform cooling. In addition, fracture coalescence in a cluster of fractures under thermal stress is illustrated, and the process of thermal fracturing from a wellbore is captured. Results underscore the importance of thermal stress in reservoir stimulation and show the effectiveness of the model to predict 3D thermal fracturing. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

Last interglacial sea levels on the south coast of New South Wales

Remnants of the Last Interglacial shoreline occur at Middle Lagoon on the far south coast of New South Wales. Relict beach sediments can be traced to a height of at least +4.8 m and are indicative of a former mean sea level of about +3 m. Thermoluminescence (TL) ages of 126 ± 13 ka and 114 ± 15 ka were determined for beach and aeolian facies respectively. Sands in the lower part of an exposure on the adjacent Gillards Beach gave TL ages of 108 ± 13 ka, but sands in the upper part of that exposure gave an age of 19.9 ± 3.5 ka. This chronological evidence of a stratigraphic unconformity in what was initially taken as pedogenic differentiation at Gillards Beach is supported by contrasting electron traps and colour centres in crystal lattices of quartz grains in these two samples. No tectonic displacement is apparent. This site provides the first evidence of the Last Interglacial sea level for 1000 km along the coast between Gippsland and Newcastle.     

The SuperCOSMOS Sky Survey – III. Astrometry

In this, the third in a series of three papers concerning the SuperCOSMOS Sky Survey, we describe the astrometric properties of the data base. We describe the algorithms employed in the derivation of the astrometric parameters of the data, and demonstrate their accuracies by comparison with external data sets using the first release of data, the South Galactic Cap survey. We show that the celestial coordinates, which are tied to the International Celestial Reference Frame via the Tycho–2 reference catalogue, are accurate to better than ±0.2 arcsec at J , R ∼19,18 , rising to ±0.3 arcsec at J , R ∼22,21 , with positional-dependent systematic effects from bright to faint magnitudes at the ∼0.1-arcsec level. The proper motion measurements are shown to be accurate to typically ±10 mas yr⁻¹ at J , R ∼19,18 , rising to ±50 mas yr⁻¹ at J , R ∼22,21 , and are tied to zero using the extragalactic reference frame. We show that the zero-point errors in the proper motions are ≤1 mas yr⁻¹ for R >17 , and are no larger than ∼10 mas yr⁻¹ for R <17 mas yr⁻¹ .     

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in November/December 2012: Comparison of Observations by Instruments on the International Space Station and Models

Onboard the International Space Station (ISS), two instruments are observing the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) at wavelengths from 16 to 2900 nm. Although the ISS platform orientation generally precludes pointing at the Sun more than 10?–?14 days per month, in November/December 2012 a continuous period of measurements was obtained by implementing an ISS ‘bridging’ maneuver. This enabled observations to be made of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) during a complete solar rotation. We present these measurements, which quantify the impact of active regions on SSI, and compare them with data simultaneously gathered from other platforms, and with models of spectral irradiance variability. Our analysis demonstrates that the instruments onboard the ISS have the capability to measure SSI variations consistent with other instruments in space. A comparison among all available SSI measurements during November–December 2012 in absolute units with reconstructions using solar proxies and observed solar activity features is presented and discussed in terms of accuracy.     

ITERA: IDL tool for emission-line ratio analysis

We present a new software tool to enable astronomers to easily compare observations of emission-line ratios with those determined by photoionization and shock models, ITERA, the IDL Tool for Emission-line Ratio Analysis. This tool can plot ratios of emission lines predicted by models and allows for comparison of observed line ratios against grids of these models selected from model libraries associated with the tool. We provide details of the libraries of standard photoionization and shock models available with ITERA, and, in addition, present three example emission-line ratio diagrams covering a range of wavelengths to demonstrate the capabilities of ITERA. ITERA, and associated libraries, is available from http://www.brentgroves.net/itera.html.