Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

Late Cambrian microbial build-ups,Llano Area,Central Texas: A three-phase morphological evolution

Although Late Cambrian microbial build-ups were recognized in the Point Peak Member of the Wilberns Formation in Central Texas (USA) nearly 70 years ago, only a few studies focused specifically on the build-ups themselves. This study focuses on the interpretation of the regional (15 measured sections described in literature representing an area of 8000 km²) and local (field and drone photogrammetry studies in a 25 km² area from within south Mason County) microbial build-up occurrence, describes their growth phases and details their interactions with the surrounding inter-build-up sediments. The study establishes the occurrence of microbial build-ups in the lower and upper Point Peak members (the Point Peak Member is informally broken up into the lower Point Peak and the upper Point Peak members separated by Plectotrophia zone). The lower Point Peak Member consists of three <1 m thick microbial bioherms and biostrome units, in addition to heterolithic and skeletal/ooid grainstone and packstone beds. One, up to 14 m thick, microbial unit associated with inter-build-up skeletal and ooid grainstone and packstone beds, intercalated with mixed siliciclastic–carbonate silt beds, characterizes the upper Point Peak member. The microbial unit in the upper Point Peak member displays a three-phase growth evolution, from an initial colonization phase on flat based, rip-up clast lenses, to a second aggradation and lateral expansion phase, into a third well-defined capping phase. The ultimate demise of the microbial build-ups is interpreted to have been triggered by an increase of water turbidity caused by a sudden influx of fine siliciclastics. The lower Point Peak member represents inner ramp shallow subtidal and intertidal facies and the upper Point Peak member corresponds to mid-outer ramp subtidal facies. Understanding the morphological architecture and depositional context of these features is of importance for identifying signatures of early life on Earth.     

Premelting and calcium mobility in gehlenite (Ca2Al2SiO7) and pseudowollastonite (CaSiO3)

 Premelting effects in gehlenite (Ca₂Al₂SiO₇) have been studied by Raman spectroscopy and calorimetry, and in gehlenite and pseudowollastonite (CaSiO₃) by electrical conductivity. The enthalpy of premelting of gehlenite is 17.3 kJ mol⁻¹ and represents 9% of the reported enthalpy of fusion, which is in the range of the reported fraction of other minerals. The Raman and electrical conductivity experiments at high temperatures, for gehlenite and pseudowollastonite, show that the premelting effects of both compositions are associated with enhanced dynamics of calcium atoms near the melting point. This conclusion agrees with the results obtained for other minerals like diopside, but contrasts with those found for sodium metasilicate in which the weaker bonding of sodium allows the silicate framework to distort near the melting temperature and deform in such a way to prefigure the silicate entities present in the melt. Received: 30 April 2002 / Accepted: 7 August 2002 Acknowledgements We thank Y. Linard for help with DSC measurements and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This work has been partly supported by the EU Marie-Curie fellowship contract no. HPMF-CT-1999-00329, the CNRS-Carnegie Institution of Washington program PICS no.192, and the NSF grants EAR-9614432 and EAR-9901886 to B.O.M.     

Clear sky ultraviolet-B radiation in the English Midlands: A comparison of measured and modelled values

Summary Spectral measurements were made of solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) irradiance at Sutton Bonington (52° 50N, 1° 15W) under cloudless skies using a Licor LI 1800 scanning spectroradiometer. The finite bandpass of the instrument and the steep shape of the UVB spectra caused overestimation of irradiance at short wavelengths. Spectra were corrected mathematically for these effects.The corrected spectra were compared to estimates of global UVB irradiance as a function of zenith angle and amount of ozone. Comparisons were made at 300 nm, 310 nm and 320 nm. Estimates were significantly greater (p = 0.05) than the measurements except at 320 nm where differences were not significant. The differences may have been the result of overestimation of UVB at short wavelengths, since some of the assumptions on which the estimates were based may not be valid for Sutton Bonington conditions.

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Zusammenfassung Unter wolkenlosem Himmel wurden in Sutton Bonington (52° 50N, 1° 15W) mittels eines Licor LI 1800 Spektroradiometer-Scanners Spektralmessungen von Ultraviolett-B (UVB)-Strahlung durchgeführt. Die endliche Bandbreite des Instruments und der steile Anstieg der UVB-Spektren führten zu einer Überschätzung der Strahlung im kurzwelligen Bereich. Die Spektren wurden in dieser Hinsicht mathematisch korrigiert.Die korrigierten Spektren wurden mit den Schätzwerten der globalen UVB-Strahlung — als Funktion von Zenithwinkel und Ozonmenge — bei 300nm, 310nm und 320nm verglichen. Hiebei erwiesen sich die Schätzwerte wesentlich höher (p = 0,05) als die Meßwerte, nur bei 320nm waren die Unterschiede nicht signifikant. Die Unterschiede könnten aus der Überschätzung von UVB im kurzwelligen Bereich resultieren, da einige der Schätzungsvoraussetzungen auf die Bedingungen in Sutton Bonington nicht zutreffen dürften.

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On leave from Department of Agronomy and Soils, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, U.S.A.

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With 4 Figures     

Late Devensian environments in the Vale of Mowbray, North Yorkshire, UK: evidence from palynology

Two radiocarbon-dated Lateglacial pollen diagrams from the Vale of Mowbray (northern Vale of York) are presented from sites in the lowlands between the washlands courses of the rivers Swale and Ure in North Yorkshire, an area with little previous palynological research despite its proximity to the Devensian glacial advance limits in eastern England. The profiles, from Snape Mires and Nosterfield, include the Loch Lomond Stadial (Younger Dryas) and the Holocene transition, while that from Snape Mires also includes the period from the early part of the Lateglacial Interstadial. This profile differs from most published Interstadial diagrams from the Yorkshire region in having a long-delayed expansion of tree and shrub taxa. Juniperus (juniper) remains important after vegetation development takes place and the pollen record includes evidence of two cold climate oscillations before the maximum development of Betula (birch) woodland near the end of the Lateglacial Interstadial. At both profiles Artemisia (mugwort) frequencies are lower during the Loch Lomond Stadial than at many regional sites, probably due to edaphic factors in these lowland locations. The two sites provide valuable environmental data that enable comparison between the more wooded Lateglacial vegetation to the south in the Vale of York and Humberside and the more open contemporaneous vegetation to the north in the Durham and Northumberland lowlands.     

Strain-rate estimation using fractal analysis of quartz grains in naturally deformed rocks

The area-perimeter fractal dimension (D) of quartz grains has earlier been proposed as a strain-rate gauge based on experimental deformation of quartz aggregates. To test the application in naturally deformed rocks, D is calculated in (a) three quartzites belonging to the Lunavada Group of rocks (Aravalli Mountain Belt, NW India) that developed textures between 420–600°C and (b) one quartz reef sample from the Malanjkhand Granite (Central India), which underwent dynamic recrystallization between 250–400°C. Using the above T ranges and calculated D values, strain-rates are calculated for the two sets of samples. A 10^−12.7 s⁻¹ strain rate at 250°C is calculated for the quartz reef sample. However, at higher temperatures the calculated strain-rate is >10⁻¹⁰ s⁻¹ for the quartz reef and the quartzite samples. The quartzites show evidence of dynamic recrystallization by grain boundary migration (GBM) and subgrain rotation (SGR), while the quartz reef is replete with evidence of bulging (BLG) recrystallization. T and calculated strainrates are plotted on available recrystallization map of quartz. It is demonstrated that whilst the T/strain-rate of the quartzites does not fall in the region of GBM and SGR, the T/strain-rate of the quartz reef falls in the BLG region. The problems with strain-rate calculations using area perimeter fractal dimension are discussed. It is concluded that the method of strain-rate calculation can be used only for lower T.     

Terrestrial analogs of the hellespontus dunes,Mars

Geomorphic features in the Hellespontus region, Mars, were compared with dunes of the crescentic ridge type in numerous terrestrial sand seas quantitatively by dimensional analysis of dune lengths, widths, and wavelengths. Mean values for the Hellespontus dunes are close to mean values derived from measurements of all sampled terrestrial sand seas. Terrestrial analogs of form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are shown by comparison of scale ratios derived from the measurements. Dunes of similar form occur in South West Africa, in Pakistan, in the southeastern Arabian peninsula, in the Sahara, in eastern USSR and northern China, and in western North America. Terrestrial analogs closest to form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are in the Kara Kum Desert, Turkmen SSR, and in the Ala Shan (Gobi) Desert, China.     

A wave model for the Great Barrier Reef

A new wind wave generation model, WAMGBR, is presented that has been adapted from WAM especially for use in the complex geometry of the Great Barrier Reef. A technique (reef parameterization) has been presented that incorporates sub-grid scale dissipation caused by coral reefs. Three other improvements to WAM have been proposed. An explicit/implicit finite difference scheme has been implemented that allows for more efficient modelling (longer time steps) while maintaining diffusive characteristics that are at least as good as those of WAM. An offset in discrete angles creates more uniform diffusive characteristics. And, a transformed spherical coordinate system allows for more efficient grid sizes and smaller grid dependent refraction. Comparisons between modelling techniques and between model and measured data show that WAMGBR produces very good results in the difficult challenge of modelling both non-cyclonic and tropical cyclone waves in the geographically complex environment of the Great Barrier Reef.     

中国当代土地利用对区域气候影响的数值模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式，嵌套欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)ERA40再分析资料，分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下各15年时间长度（1987-2001）的积分试验，以研究我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。通过两个试验结果的对比，研究了我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。分析主要集中于气温、降水等的变化上，并对结果进行了统计显著性检验。结果表明，当代土地利用/植被覆盖变化加强了中国地区冬、夏季的季风环流，同时改变了地表能量平衡状况，从而对各气候要素产生重要影响。冬季，植被改变引起长江以南降水减少、气温降低，长江以北降水增加。夏季，植被改变显著影响了南方地区的气候，使得这里降水增多，黄淮、江淮气温降低，华南气温上升；同时引起中国北方降水减少，气温在西北部分植被退化地区升高。植被变化对日最低、最高气温的影响更大。总体来说，土地利用引起了年平均降水在南方增加、北方减少，年平均气温在南方显著降低。     

A review of the numerical modelling of salt mobilization from groundwater-surface water interactions

Salinization of land and water is a significant challenge in most continents and particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The need to accurately forecast surface and groundwater interactions has promoted the use of physically-based numerical modelling approaches in many studies. In this regard, two issues can be considered as the main research challenges. First, in contrast with surface water, there is generally less observed level and salinity data available for groundwater systems. These data are critical in the validation and verification of numerical models. The second challenge is to develop an integrated surface-groundwater numerical model that is capable of salt mobilization modelling but which can be validated and verified against accurate observed data. This paper reviews the current state of understanding of groundwater and surface water interactions with particular respect to the numerical modelling of salt mobilization. 3D physically-based fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model with the capability of modelling density-dependent, saturated-unsaturated solute transport is an ideal tool for groundwater-surface water interaction studies. It is concluded that there is a clear need to develop modelling capabilities for the movement of salt to, from, and within wetlands to provide temporal predictions of wetland salinity which can be used to assess ecosystem outcomes.