New Cases of Superflares on Slowly Rotating Solar-type Stars and Large Amplitude Superflares in G-and M-type Main Sequence Stars

In our previous work, we searched for superflares on different types of stars while focusing on G-type dwarfs using entire Kepler data to study statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares. Using these new data, as a byproduct, we found 14 cases of superflare detection on 13 slowly rotating Sun-like stars with rotation periods of24.5–44 days. This result supports the earlier conclusion by others that the Sun may possibly undergo a surprise superflare. Moreover, we found 12 and se...     

在中国几个地区进行的大地电流法勘探工作

在中国,自从1957年起,与各种地球物理方法（解决石油地貭任务）广泛发展的同时,比較年輕的大地电流法也得到了很大的发展。大地中存在大地电流,这在一百多年前就知道了。以往的观測表明,大地电流具有脉动性貭,它的大小和方向随时間而变化,并在地球表面很多地区同时出現。大地电流的产生、它的变化以及与地磁場的关系,还沒有搞得相当清楚,这是一个需要进一步研究的問題。     

Harmful microalgae blooms (HAB); problematic and conditions that induce them

HAB occurrence is becoming more frequent and problematic in marine recreational waters. However, the exploitation of the coastal area for recreational use is promoting the necessary conditions for the HAB increase. In terms of the harmful effects, we can consider two types of causative organism: the toxic producers and the high-biomass producers. Toxic events can be produced by a very low concentration of the causative organism. This characteristic implies a difficulty for the monitoring programs in relation to human health. It is important to point out in the context of human health and HAB events, that in some coastal regions (e.g. the Mediterranean basin) HABs are an emerging problem. In these regions, the local population and visitors may face a health risk that is difficult to measure. The monitoring of toxic species has mainly been associated -with shellfish farming. However, the risk of intoxication could become even greater in areas not subject to legislation of aquaculture activities.     

Resolving mechanisms of toxicity while pursuing ecotoxicological relevance?

In this age of modern biology, aquatic toxicological research has pursued mechanisms of action of toxicants. This has provided potential tools for ecotoxicologic investigations. However, problems of biocomplexity and issues at higher levels of biological organization remain a challenge. In the 1980s and 1990s and continuing to a lesser extent today, organisms residing in highly contaminated field sites or exposed in the laboratory to calibrated concentrations of individual compounds were carefully analyzed for their responses to priority pollutants. Correlation of biochemical and structural analyses in cultured cells and tissues, as well as the in vivo exposures led to the production and application of biomarkers of exposure and effect and to our awareness of genotoxicity and its chronic manifestations, such as neoplasms, in wild fishes. To gain acceptance of these findings in the greater environmental toxicology community, “validation of the model” versus other, better-established often rodent models, was necessary and became a major focus. Resultant biomarkers were applied to heavily contaminated and reference field sites as part of effects assessment and with investigations following large-scale disasters such as oil spills or industrial accidents.

Over the past 15 years, in the laboratory, small aquarium fish models such as medaka (Oryzias latipes), zebrafish (Danio rerio), platyfish (Xiphophorus species), fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), and sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) were increasingly used establishing mechanisms of toxicants. Today, the same organisms provide reliable information at higher levels of biological organization relevant to ecotoxicology. We review studies resolving mechanisms of toxicity and discuss ways to address biocomplexity, mixtures of contaminants, and the need to relate individual level responses to populations and communities.     

Persistent organic pollutants and histological lesions in Mayan catfish Ariopsis assimilis from the Bay of Chetumal, Mexico

Livers of catfish (Ariopsis assimilis) from the Bay of Chetumal were analyzed for organochlorine compounds and hydrocarbons as part of a study to diagnose the environmental health of the Bay after a catfish mass mortality that occurred in 1996. The presence of histological lesions in several organs of the fish as result of chemical exposure was also evaluated. The concentrations of organic pollutants found in the Bay may be considered high if compared to the levels reported for sites affected by chemical pollution. High prevalences of cellular alteration histopathologies were found in liver, including hepatic tumors. The presence of some lesions may be related statistically to environmental pollution in the Bay, specially with chlorinated compounds.     

Rare Earth Element Enrichments in the Elk Creek Carbonatite

Please refer to the attachment(s) for more details.     

Transition probability/Markov chain analyses of DNAPL source zones and plumes

At sites where a dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) was spilled or released into the subsurface, estimates of the mass of DNAPL contained in the subsurface from core or monitoring well data, either in the nonaqueous or aqueous phase, can be highly uncertain because of the erratic distribution of the DNAPL due to geologic heterogeneity. In this paper, a multiphase compositional model is applied to simulate, in detail, the DNAPL saturations and aqueous-phase plume migration in a highly characterized, heterogeneous glaciofluvial aquifer, the permeability and porosity data of which were collected by researchers at the University of Tübingen, Germany. The DNAPL saturation distribution and the aqueous-phase contaminant mole fractions are then reconstructed by sampling the data from the forward simulation results using two alternate approaches, each with different degrees of sampling conditioning. To reconstruct the DNAPL source zone architecture, the aqueous-phase plume configuration, and the contaminant mass in each phase, one method employs the novel transition probability/Markov chain approach (TP/MC), while the other involves a traditional variogram analysis of the sampled data followed by ordinary kriging. The TP/MC method is typically used for facies and/or hydraulic conductivity reconstruction, but here we explore the applicability of the TP/MC method for the reconstruction of DNAPL source zones and aqueous-phase plumes. The reconstructed geometry of the DNAPL source zone, the dissolved contaminant plume, and the estimated mass in each phase are compared using the two different geostatistical modeling approaches and for various degrees of data sampling from the results of the forward simulation. It is demonstrated that the TP/MC modeling technique is robust and accurate and is a preferable alternative compared to ordinary kriging for the reconstruction of DNAPL saturation patterns and dissolved-phase contaminant plumes.     

集合敏感性分析在北半球中纬度高影响天气中的应用

总结回顾了集合敏感性分析(ESA)在诊断中纬度高影响天气预报不确定性中的应用。作为一个简单高效且不需要大量计算资源的方法,集合敏感性分析主要被应用在中纬度气旋、台风或飓风的温带转换,以及在强对流过程中诊断预报误差和不确定性的来源。集合敏感性方法极有灵活性,可以根据实际需要改变不同的预报变量和初始场。在对2010年美国东岸圣诞节暴风雪的分析中,集合敏感性分析通过三种形式来诊断了预报不确定性的初值敏感性,即基于EOF分析的敏感性、预报差别的敏感性,以及基于短期预报误差的向前积分敏感性回归。三种方法证实气旋路径的不确定性主要和位于美国南部大平原的短波槽初始误差相关。此外,气旋强度的不确定性还和产生于北太平洋向下游延伸的罗斯贝波列相关。集合敏感性分析方法对于分析中纬度气旋的不确定性、诊断初值敏感性、分析误差发展机制都非常有效。集合敏感性分析也被应用于分析台风/飓风的温带气旋转换过程的不确定性。在对2019年美国首个主要登陆台风Dorian的分析中发现,加拿大CMC的集合预报主要不确定性来自于强度的不确定性,而这个不确定性与初始时刻的大尺度环流型有关,较连贯的信号可以追溯至东北太平洋的前倾槽。而NCEP和ECMWF的不确定性主要在于气旋位置的东北—西南向移动,而敏感性主要和飓风系统本身(即其北部低压区和中纬度槽)的锁相有关。分析结果进一步验证了集合敏感性分析对诊断模式之间的不一致性,以及模式成员之间不一致性的不确定性来源和发展过程的可靠性。集合敏感性分析方法综合了集合预报、资料同化和敏感性分析,因此对于资料同化技术改进、诊断模式误差(或者缺陷)、附加(目标)观测最优策略,以及评估观测对预报的影响等都有重要意义。同时可以更有效地利用集合预报信息,帮助预报员提高情景意识,最终减少高影响天气预报中的决策失误。     

2009年意大利中部阿奎拉地震DInSAR同震位移的有限断层反演

根据环境卫星Envisat和COSMO—SkyMed模型（为同震位错研究而首次设计的X波段反演干涉图）的DInSAR干涉图,确定了2009年4月6日阿奎拉Mw=6．3级地震时激发的断层几何形状及运动特征。我们的主震最佳拟合解为一个约16km长、12km宽的正断层,存在小的右旋分量,向西南倾斜47°,最大滑动约90cm。虽然地震位错可能只有1km深,但是断层面的上倾投影与标绘的帕加尼卡-南德米特里奥断层的北段相符合,在现场观察到了该断层地表破裂的迹线。该断层在现有震源目录中的缺失表明,需要对具体的地表和地下进行进一步的地质和地球物理勘测,以便对局部规模的地震危险性做出更准确的评估。