墨西哥湾盆地北部深水前第三系成藏组合分析

墨西哥湾盆地是一个中-新生代的裂谷盆地,在盆地北部深水区(美国一侧)可能存在着油气成藏下组合,具有古生新储的成藏特征.侏罗系发育了主力烃源岩,烃源岩厚度大,深水区中一半的烃源岩尚处在生油期;白垩系发育主力成藏组合,储层物性良好.整个盆地广泛发育的盐岩地层使盆地的地温梯度较低(约1.8～2.3℃/100m),致使成藏期偏...     

National-scale data-driven rainfall induced landslide susceptibility mapping for China by accounting for incomplete landslide data

China is one of the countries where landslides caused the most fatalities in the last decades.The threat that landslide disasters pose to people might even be greater in the future,due to climate change and the increasing urbanization of mountainous areas.A reliable national-scale rainfall induced landslide suscep-tibility model is therefore of great relevance in order to identify regions more and less prone to landslid-ing as well as to develop suitable risk mitigating strategies.However,relying on imperfect landslide data is inevitable when modelling landslide susceptibility for such a large research area.The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of incomplete landslide data on national scale statistical landslide susceptibility modeling for China.In this context,it is aimed to explore the benefit of mixed effects mod-elling to counterbalance associated bias propagations.Six influencing factors including lithology,slope,soil moisture index,mean annual precipitation,land use and geological environment regions were selected based on an initial exploratory data analysis.Three sets of influencing variables were designed to represent different solutions to deal with spatially incomplete landslide information:Set 1(disregards the presence of incomplete landslide information),Set 2(excludes factors related to the incompleteness of landslide data),Set 3(accounts for factors related to the incompleteness via random effects).The vari-able sets were then introduced in a generalized additive model(GAM:Set 1 and Set 2)and a generalized additive mixed effect model(GAMM:Set 3)to establish three national-scale statistical landslide suscep-tibility models:models 1,2 and 3.The models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve(AUROC)given by spatially explicit and non-spatial cross-validation.The spatial pre-diction pattern produced by the models were also investigated.The results show that the landslide inven-tory incompleteness had a substantial impact on the outcomes of the statistical landslide susceptibility models.The cross-validation results provided evidence that the three established models performed well to predict model-independent landslide information with median AUROCs ranging from 0.8 to 0.9.However,although Model 1 reached the highest AUROCs within non-spatial cross-validation(median of 0.9),it was not associated with the most plausible representation of landslide susceptibility.The Model 1 modelling results were inconsistent with geomorphological process knowledge and reflected a large extent the underlying data bias.The Model 2 susceptibility maps provided a less biased picture of landslide susceptibility.However,a lower predicted likelihood of landslide occurrence still existed in areas known to be underrepresented in terms of landslide data(e.g.,the Kuenlun Mountains in the northern Tibetan Plateau).The non-linear mixed-effects model(Model 3)reduced the impact of these biases best by introducing bias-describing variables as random effects.Among the three models,Model 3 was selected as the best national-scale susceptibility model for China as it produced the most plausible portray of rainfall induced landslide susceptibility and the highest spatially explicit predictive perfor-mance(median AUROC of spatial cross validation 0.84)compared to the other two models(median AUROCs of 0.81 and 0.79,respectively).We conclude that ignoring landslide inventory-based incomplete-ness can entail misleading modelling results and that the application of non-linear mixed-effect models can reduce the propagation of such biases into the final results for very large areas.     

青藏高原东部的Pn波层析成像研究

利用INDEPTH/ASCENT台阵和其它布设在青藏高原的流动宽频带地震仪数据,反演了青藏高原东部和周边区域的上地幔顶层Pn波速度以及台站延迟.研究区域的平均Pn波速度是8.1 km/s,略高于中国大陆的平均Pn波速度.低速区主要分布在羌塘地块的西部和松潘-甘孜地块,高温异常的岩石圈上地幔很可能是导致这一低速区的原因.班公-怒江缝合带东端区域的Pn波速度达到8.35 km/s,这一高速区可能与向北俯冲的印度板块(东端)有关.另一Pn波高速区分布在祁连山和昆仑山之间,主要由柴达木盆地和共和盆地及其周边地区,两个并不完全连续的高速异常区组成,它可能对应于特提斯洋闭合时北部增生的克拉通地体;在后来的欧亚板块与印度板块的碰撞中,这一地体有可能阻挡了青藏高原向北的生长.相对密集的台站提供了高分辨率的速度结构横向分布和地壳厚度变化.台站延迟显示青藏高原北部和东部的地壳存在显著的减薄--松潘-甘孜地块东北缘的地壳厚度仅为约50 km,而羌塘地块东部唐古拉山地壳最厚,达到75 km,这可能是由于印度-欧亚板块碰撞引起的羌塘地块内部变形增厚所致.     

拉奎拉地震事件对可操作地震预报的经验教训

编者按：本文是2012年4月19日美国地震学会（ssA）年会的公共政策午餐会时的致辞。2012年10月22日,意大利法院宣判6名地球科学家和1名公共安全官员过失杀人罪,SRI。发布了控告书的内容。正式的文本可以访问WWW．seismosoc．org／itMy／获取。SSA对这一判决的声明刊于本期SRI。中新闻和按语栏,可参见http：∥WWW．seismosoc．org／news／newsitem．php？id—i2012i011183。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112000655

Four different varieties of charnockitic rocks,with different modes of formation,from the Mesoproterozoic Natal belt are described and new C isotope data presented.Excellent coastal exposures in a number of quarries and river sections make this part of the Natal belt a good location for observing charnockitic field relationships.Whereas there has been much debate on genesis of charnockites and the use of the term charnockite.it is generally recognized that the stabilization of orthopyroxene relative to biotite in granitoid rocks is a function of low aH₂O（±high CO₂）,high temperature,and composition （especially Fe/（Fe +Mg））.From the Natal belt exposures,it is evident that syn-emplacement.magmatic crystallization of chamockite can arise from mantle-derived differentiated melts that are inherently hot and dry（as in the Oribi Gorge granites and Munster enderbite）,as well as from wet granitic melts that have been affected through interaction with dry country rock to produce localized charnockitic marginal facies in plutons（as in the Portobello Granite）.Two varieties of post-emplacement sub-solidus chamockites are also evident.These include charnockitic aureoles developed in leucocratic,biotite.garnet granite adjacent to cross-cutting enderbitic veins that are attributed to metamorphic-metasomatic processes（as in the Nicholson’s Point granite,a part of the Margate Granite Suite）,as well as nebulous,patchy charnockitic veins in the Margate Granite that are attributed to anatectic metamorphic processes under low-aH_O fluid conditions during a metamorphic event.These varieties of chamockite show that the required physical conditions of their genesis can be achieved through a number of geological processes,providing some important implications for the classification of charnockites,and for the interpretation of charnockite genesis in areas where poor exposure obscures field relationships.     

青藏高原乌丽冻土区二叠纪煤系烃源岩特征

为了查明青藏高原乌丽冻土区二叠纪煤系烃源岩的生烃潜力,对采集自乌丽水合物试验孔ZK1井及其周边钻孔的岩心样品和露头样品进行了测试。测试结果显示:上二叠统那益雄组上段烃源岩有机质丰度较低,而下段烃源岩有机质丰度较高;烃源岩有机质类型主要为Ⅲ型;烃源岩热演化程度很高,已达过成熟。考虑到泥质烃源岩成熟度很高以及该区存在变质程度很高的煤层,综合研究认为,该区二叠纪煤系烃源岩生烃潜力总体较好。