太湖流域磷排放对区域城市化过程的响应——以宜兴市为例

在系统分析基础上,利用系统动力学方法,以宜兴市为典型区,模拟城市化过程对磷发生量的影响,建立二者间的定量响应关系。结果表明,不论是在何种城市化发展速度下,磷的发生总量都会有较大幅度的增加,而目前规划的污水处理水平只能小幅度削减流域内磷的排放量,不足以从根本上扭转太湖水质持续恶化的趋势。在推进太湖流域城市化的进程中,必须加大投入,进一步加强环境基础设施建设,更大幅度地削减磷等营养物质的排放。     

海平面上升研究进展的文献分析

采用文献分析法对ISI Web of Science (institute for scientific information, ISI)核心合集数据库中关于海平面上升文献综合探究,得出结论:(1)海平面上升的发文量从1993—2016年整体呈上升趋势,尤其在2010年后产量大增。(2)发表越久的文献被引次数越高。文献作者数量逐年增多,引用参考文献数量也逐年增加,文献之间联系越来越紧密。(3)美国主导海平面上升研究。对于发文量较多的国家,该国独立发文量和其与他国合作文献量基本持平;对于发文量较少的国家,大部分文献为与他国合作完成。(4)不同机构之间合作是为常态,机构间合作明显多于国家间的合作。(5)关于海平面上升文献发文量最高的期刊刊登文献数占本研究总文献的近6%;期刊研究领域所属学科种类均与geology和environmental sciencesecology以及physical geography等相关。(6)通过关键词研究发现,除气候变化外,盐沼、风暴潮等是近期海平面上升的研究主流。希望通过对目前已出版文献的梳理为后续的研究提供指引及借鉴的依据,并通过对文献分析法的运用,能够使研究者更有针对性地将该方法运用到相关学术领域。     

老挝万象盆地萨塔尼钾盐矿的构造变形与深部矿预测

老挝万象盆地蕴藏有丰富钾盐矿,钾盐成矿后受到了后期构造运动的强烈改造。后期构造运动对万象盆地的钾盐矿产生了怎样的改变?一直缺乏深入研究。本次研究表明,在挤压走滑背景下,后期的构造运动对钾盐进行改造,并使得钾盐矿体发生了塑性柔流和脆性滑移。万象盆地萨塔尼钾盐矿区的三维地震勘探结果表明,无论水平切片还是垂直剖面上,都清晰地显示了构造运动对钾盐矿和地层的后期改造。钻探岩心也显示与构造运动有关的柔流变形。通过钻孔测井资料对三维地震勘探进行标定,可以准确外推钾盐矿体的横向变化并预测定位钾盐矿的空间位置。最终在老挝万象盆地萨塔尼一个很小的矿区详勘发现了一个超大型钾盐矿床,因此三维地震在万象盆地钾盐矿后期改造和勘探方面发挥显著作用。     

黄河青藏高原网状河段不同流量下活动河道的分布规律

以黄河青藏高原阿万仓和采日玛两段主河道50 km与65 km长的网状河段为研究对象,利用2013年3期遥感影像绘制了不同流量下（176 m³/s,978 m³/s,1 610 m³/s）网状河段活动河道的分布变化图,结合DEM数据分析了现有河道在流量增加过程中的空间分布格局和潜在定量关系。研究结果表明：根据流量大小划分出的3类活动河道,其分布规律基本是后者位于前者的两侧,据此可以推断,网状河分支河道基本是从主河道向两侧逐渐发展的。对于阿万仓河段,在河谷和河间地相对宽阔处,每个河道断面上3类活动河道数的比值为1:1.67:2.25;而在河谷较窄的地方,该比值为1:1.22:1.33。在采日玛河段,该比值分别为1:1.3:1.4和1:0.95:1.16。在宽阔的草原湿地河段,当网状河的主河道发生弯曲时,弯道内侧的活动河道数要大于弯道外侧的活动河道数。在平坦开阔的河谷地带,断面上的活动河道线密度与河谷宽度之间呈现出极好的线性负相关关系;而峡谷地带由于两侧高地形的限制,河谷宽窄不一,活动河道的线密度相对较大、且差别也较大。     

气候变化和人类活动对淮河流域中上游地区径流影响研究（英文）

This study presents a soil and water integrated model(SWIM) and associated statistical analyses for the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) based on daily meteorological, river runoff, and water resource data encompassing the period between 1959 and 2015. The aim of this research is to quantitatively analyze the rate of contribution of upstream runoff to that of the midstream as well as the influence of climate change and human activities in this section of the river. Our goal is to explain why extreme precipitation is concentrated in the upper reaches of the HRB while floods tend to occur frequently in the middle reaches of this river basin. Results show that the rate of contribution of precipitation to runoff in the upper reaches of the HRB is significantly higher than temperature. Data show that the maximum contribution rate of upstream runoff to that of the midstream can be as high as 2.23%, while the contribution of temperature is just 0.38%. In contrast, the rate of contribution of human activities to runoff is 87.20% in the middle reaches of the HRB, while that due to climate change is 12.80%. Frequent flood disasters therefore occur in the middle reaches of the HRB because of the combined effects of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches and human activities in the middle sections.     

地方院校遥感课程教学模式改革探究

随着社会对遥感人才需求的不断增长,遥感学概论课程在高等院校中越来越受到重视,然而原来陈旧的教学内容、教学方法等已无法适应现代遥感技术的飞速发展。鉴于此,本文以唐山师范学院为例,结合多年遥感课程教学经验,在分析该校遥感课程教学现状的基础上,针对存在的问题,从教学内容、教学环境、教学方式等方面对遥感课程改革进行探讨,构建了唐山师范学院遥感课程的内容体系,并结合学生实际情况,提出了将分层教学法运用于遥感课堂理论教学以及将室内与室外相结合、实践与科研相结合的思路运用于实践教学的遥感教学新思路,在遥感课程教学中取得了较好的效果。     

基于衰减记忆思想的故障容错方法

残差χ2法难以准确检测小幅值突变故障,改进的序贯概率比检测(SPRT)方法通过迭代递推,能够检测到故障,但存在延时且对故障结束不敏感。基于此,本文给出了区分故障大小的方法,针对小幅值故障提出了一种基于衰减记忆思想的故障容错方法:当改进的SPRT方法检测到故障后,对系统进行隔离重构,用不包含故障信息的数据进行量测更新,利用衰减因数减小包含故障信息的陈旧滤波值的权重,以提高滤波精度,同时构造"伪正常"状态,使该方法能够及时判断故障结束。仿真结果表明,本文提出的方法适用于故障多发的情形,能够提高滤波精度,增强系统可靠性。     

黄河第一湾齐哈玛河段砾质网状河1990年以来的演变特征（英文）

The anastomosing river that is present within the First Great Bend of the Yellow River is different from other sand-bedded rivers of this type because it contains gravel-bedded materials. It is therefore important to determine whether, or not, the specific characteristics of this anastomosing river are similar to those seen in sand-bedded forms, including the characteristics of erosion and deposition, and the stability of channel and interchannel wetlands. Four Landsat images from 1990, 2001, 2013, and 2016 alongside two Google Earth(GE) images from 2011 and 2013 were utilized in this study in tandem with field sampling and observations to select a 12 km main channel length section of the Qihama reach anastomosing river. This section was then used to determine variations in channel planform and sedimentary characteristics over a 26 year period. The results of this study show that this gravel-bedded anastomosing river has exhibited a high degree of stability overall, and that there has been no obvious channel and wetland bank erosion and deposition. Data also show that over the 26 years of this study, anastomosing belt area increased by 2.43%, while the ratio of land to water area remained almost equal. The number of wetlands has also increased along this river section at a rate as high as 62.16% because of the fragmentation of some small interchannel examples, while the talweg has alternately migrated to either the left or right over long periods of time at a relatively stable rate. Indeed, as a result of the migration of this line, there has been significant turnover in the number of islands within the main channel while bank shift has occurred at a rate of about 5 m/yr. The numerous anastomosing channels within this river section remained very stable over the course of this study, characterized by a mean annual migration rate of just 1 m/yr, while the sediments in bank columnar sections are mainly composed of fine sands or silts with a relatively high clay content. The sediment grain-size distribution curve for this river section contains multiple peaks, distinct from the muddy sediments within bank columnar sections from sand-bedded anastomosing rivers. The dense vegetation within riparian and interchannel wetlands alongside this river reach has also protected anastomosing channels from erosion and maintainedtheir stability, a key feature of this gravel-bedded system.     

海平面上升风险中国大陆沿海地区人口与经济暴露度

基于全球潮汐和浪涌再分析数据集,利用数字高程模型在ArcGIS空间分析工具支持下,提取了中国大陆沿海11个省市海平面上升可能淹没范围,结合人口、经济、土地利用数据构建海平面上升风险暴露度评估模型,评估中国大陆沿海地区海平面上升风险的人口和经济暴露度。结果表明：① 海平面上升风险可能淹没范围主要集中在长三角及苏北沿海、珠三角和环渤海等滨海平原地区,其中可能淹没范围最大的是江苏、上海等长三角地区;土地利用类型中受影响最严重的为耕地,约占受影响总面积的65%,其次为建设用地;② 基于2015年人口、经济统计数据,随着海平面上升水位值重现期的变化（10 a一遇至1000 a一遇）,海平面上升风险影响的人口和经济总量逐渐增加;对海平面上升风险暴露度而言,广州是暴露度等级最高的城市,高暴露度等级的区域仍集中于长三角及苏北沿海、珠三角、环渤海地区;③ 基于5种共享社会经济路径预估的人口和经济统计数据,随着海平面上升水位值重现期的变化,2025年和2100年受影响的人口、经济总量在不同路径下均呈增长趋势,常规发展路径下受影响的人口和经济总量最大,局部或不一致发展路径和不均衡发展路径下受影响的人口、经济低于其他3种路径;从重现期角度看,10 a一遇至1000 a一遇海平面上升风险的人口、经济暴露度向高暴露度等级转移;对比2025和2100年两时段的人口、经济暴露度,2100年的暴露度等级整体低于2025年。     

太湖地区丘陵旱地土壤磷的吸持解吸特征

旱地土壤中流失的磷是地表水体中磷的重要来源,本文通过模拟实验对比太湖地区丘陵旱地土壤和水稻土对磷的吸持解吸特征,结果表明虽然旱地土壤对磷的固定能力略高于水稻土,但由于旱地土壤的有效磷水平普遍高于水稻土,因而前者磷的吸持饱和度（DPS）要大大高于后者,这就决定了旱地土壤中的磷被淋溶或以溶解态随径流流失的风险和数量也同于水稻土,磷吸持饱和度是土壤磷素水平和土壤固磷能力的综合指标,更能反映土壤固相中的磷进入液相的难易程序,可以作为评价水－土界面磷迁移能力 重要指标。