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81.
82.
基于华南地区自动站逐小时观测资料, 采用传统站点评分、邻域法等评估华南区域高分辨率数值模式(包括GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式和GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式)对降水、地面温度和风场等要素的预报能力。结果表明: GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的降水预报技巧优于GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式, 模式预报以正偏差为主。对于不同起报时间的预报, 00时(世界时, 下同)起报的预报效果优于12时。GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的TS评分是GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式的两倍以上, 对不同降水阈值的评分均较高。分数技巧评分(FSS)显示GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式6 h累计降水预报在0.1 mm、1 mm及5 mm以上的降水均可达到最低预报技巧尺度, 对所检验降水对象的空间位置把握能力更好。2 m气温和10 m风速检验结果表明两个模式均能较好把握广东省温度的分布特征, GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式对2 m气温预报结果优于GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式, 预报绝对误差更小; 两个模式对风速的预报整体偏强, 预报偏差在1~4 m/s之间, 但相比之下GRAPES_GZ 3 km模式在风场预报上表现更好。GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的2 m气温和10 m风速预报偏差随降水过程存在明显波动, 强降水过后温度预报整体偏低, 风速预报偏强, 在模式产品订正、使用等需要考虑模式对主要天气系统的预报情况。总的来说, GRAPES_GZ_R 1 km模式的预报产品具有较好的参考价值。 相似文献
83.
The November 14, 2001 Ms8.1 Kunlun Mountains earthquake in northern Tibet is the largest earthquake occurring on the Chinese mainland since 1950. We apply a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element numerical procedure to model the coseismic displacement and stress fields of the earthquake based on field investigations. We then further investigate the stress interaction between the Ms8.1 earthquake and the intensive aftershocks. Our primary calculation shows that the coseismic displacement field is centralized around the east Kunlun fault zone. And the attenuation of coseismic displacements on the south side of Kunlun fault zone is larger than that on the north side. The calculated coseismic stress field also indicates that the calculated maximal shear stress field is centralized around the east Kunlun fault zone; the directions of the coseismic major principal stress are opposite to that of the background crustal stress field of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau. It indicates that the earthquake relaxes the crustal stress state in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau. Finally, we study the stress interaction between Ms8.1 earthquake and its intensive aftershocks. The calculated Coulomb stress changes of the Ms8.1 great earthquake are in favor of triggering 4 aftershocks. 相似文献
84.
GRAPES区域模式水汽平流方案的比较与改进 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
与欧拉显式时间差分方法相比,GRAPES区域模式采用半隐半拉格朗日时间差分方案可增加时间步长且不影响稳定性,而且模式积分可有较高的计算效率和准确性。半拉格朗日法需要用到内插算法来预测下一时刻的值,对于水汽场的内插值来说,常常会造成预报值的过饱和或者是负值,需要进行特殊处理。比较GRAPES模式的准单调半拉格朗日方案(QMSL)和高精度正定保形方案(PRM),分析模式的降水预报、形势预报,同时初步总结了两方案的优缺点。在参考LCSL(Linear Constraint Semi-Lagarangain)方案的基础上,改进QMSL方案,通过连续试验运行,表明新方案基本稳定可靠,对于降水预报、形势预报有一定的改进,在台风预报试验中也有良好的表现。 相似文献
85.
86.
通过对广东省456个自动气象站2003-2005年的逐时资料进行处理,得到滤去天和年周期的温度、变温和1 h降水资料序列,并利用该序列作了滞后1 h自相关和空间相关分析。结果表明,滞后自相关系数含有时间特性,而要素站点空间分布则具有空间特性。选取2006年自动气象站个例,利用空间连续性和时间连续性原理,对气象要素时间滞后自相关系数在空间上的分布特性,进行时间、空间一致性检测,发现使用该方法可以容易地检查出资料缺测率偏高的站点。此外还总结出温度与降水观测资料的质量情况及规律。 相似文献
87.
Comparison of manual and automatic methods for measurement of methane emission from rice paddy fields 总被引:29,自引:0,他引:29
Zheng Xunhu Wang Mingxing Wang Yuesi Shen Renxing Li Jing J. Heyer M. Kogge Li Laotu Jin Jisheng 《大气科学进展》1998,15(4):569-579
The methane emission flux from rice paddies was simultaneously measured with automatic and manual methods in the suburban of Suzhou. Both methods were based on the static chamber/ GC-FID techniques. Detail analysis of the experimental results indicates: a) The data of methane emission measured with the automatic method is reliable. b) About 11 or 19 o’clock of local time is recommended as the optimum sampling time for the manual spot measurement of methane emission from rice paddies. The methane emission fluxes measured by manual sampling at local time other than the optimum time have to be corrected. The correction coefficient may be determined by automatic and continuous measurement. c) In order to get a more accurate result, an empirical correction factor, such as 18%, is recommended to correct the seasonally total amount of measured methane emission by enlarging the au-tomatically measured data or reducing the manually measured ones. 相似文献
88.
NUMERICAL SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM ON DIFFUSION OF CATALYTIC AGENTS RELEASED FROM AN AIRPLANE
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A solution to the problem on diffusion of catalytic agents released from an airplane is sought.The variation of falling velocities of agent particles with the altitudes is taken into account in the study of the problem.A comparison is also made between the calculated results obtained by using the finite-difference method and those by using the analytic method,the similarities and the differences between the two methods are revealed. 相似文献
89.
Li Huang Jia-le Kang Xiao-dong Shen Jian-ye Sun Qing-guo Meng Qiang Chen Gao-wei Hu Chang-ling Liu Neng-you Wu 《China Geology》2022,5(2):310-321
Blockage in water-dominated flow pipelines due to hydrate reformation has been suggested as a potential safety issue during the hydrate production. In this work, flow velocity-dependent hydrate formation features are investigated in a fluid circulation system with a total length of 39 m. A 9-m section pipe is transparent consisted of two complete rectangular loops. By means of pressurization with gas-saturated water, the system can gradually reach the equilibrium conditions. The result shows tha... 相似文献
90.
Wanying Chen Jieying Na Chengcheng Shen Ruiyan Zhang Bo Lu Hong Cheng Chunsheng Wang Dongsheng Zhang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(12):55-78
Seamounts are vulnerable ecosystems in the deep sea and can be heavily impacted by human activities, such as bottom fishing and deep-sea mining. The species composition and distribution patterns of benthic fauna is key information for the designation of marine protected areas and environmental management plans. Three contracts for cobalt-rich crust exploration have been granted to China, Japan and Korea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by the International Seabed Authority. However, our knowledge ... 相似文献