采用预报涡旋的初始化方案对2015年台风“莲花”、“灿鸿”的试验研究

提出了一种采用预报涡旋的初始化方案,用预报涡旋代替bogus模型参与构建模式初始场,采用权重形式合成预报涡旋和分析涡旋获取台风初始涡旋。针对2015年“莲花”和“灿鸿”台风,基于该初始化方案设计了一系列对比试验进行数值模拟,并对结果进行分析。结果表明:(1)该方案得到的台风初始涡旋结构比bogus模型合理;(2)预报涡旋权重不宜取太大;(3)从长时效预报效果看,采用24 h内预报涡旋比采用长时效预报涡旋台风的路径和强度误差减小;(4)采用同一权重方案对“莲花”、“灿鸿”预报的改进效果不同,其原因与预报涡旋和分析涡旋的协调程度有关。多台风情形下可在初步评估的基础上采用不同时效的预报涡旋和不同权重方案。      

INVESTIGATION ON EFFECTS OF INITIAL SCHEMES FOR BINARY TYPHOONS ROKE AND SONCA IN 2011

Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons’ track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.     

华南地区中尺度模式预报的初值影响分析

基于GRAPES 3D-Vat同化系统，介绍了根据静力平衡关系由高度场的增量来计算温度场的增量的方法，并结合常规探空资料同化，针对影响华南地区的一次冷空气过程的个例，分析了常规观测资料对初始场的影响。采用GRAPES区域中尺度模式进行了控制试验和同化试验，观测资料的检验表明，资料同化对GRAPES中尺度模式预报有正面影响，初始时刻预报敏感性较大并且变化较快，靠近地面的低层预报敏感性较为复杂，常规探空资料对高层大气预报能力的提高相对于中低层较小。     

雷达反演水汽在华南前汛期短时临近降水预报应用试验

为了改善数值预报模式短时临近降水预报能力,采用雷达水汽反演同化方案来提高模式初始水汽场质量。以华南精细预报模式对2013年5月进行了冷启动、热启动和热启动加雷达水汽同化等3个对比试验,并进一步详细分析2013年5月8—9日广东西南部到珠三角地区强降雨过程,探讨雷达反演水汽对短时临近降水预报的影响作用。分析结果显示3个试验结果反映精细模式冷启动不利于1~6 h的降水预报,模式热启动能较好预报前6 h的降水,但对随后预报效果不佳。在热启动的基础上,考虑同化雷达反演的水汽后,不仅较好模拟前6 h的降水,也可以预报出6~12 h的降雨带变化趋势。     

Numerical Simulation on Coseismic Effect of the November 14,2001 Great Kunlun Earthquake,Northern Tibet,China

The November 14, 2001 Ms8.1 Kunlun Mountains earthquake in northern Tibet is the largest earthquake occurring on the Chinese mainland since 1950. We apply a three-dimensional （3-D） finite element numerical procedure to model the coseismic displacement and stress fields of the earthquake based on field investigations. We then further investigate the stress interaction between the Ms8.1 earthquake and the intensive aftershocks. Our primary calculation shows that the coseismic displacement field is centralized around the east Kunlun fault zone. And the attenuation of coseismic displacements on the south side of Kunlun fault zone is larger than that on the north side. The calculated coseismic stress field also indicates that the calculated maximal shear stress field is centralized around the east Kunlun fault zone; the directions of the coseismic major principal stress are opposite to that of the background crustal stress field of the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau. It indicates that the earthquake relaxes the crustal stress state in the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau. Finally, we study the stress interaction between Ms8.1 earthquake and its intensive aftershocks. The calculated Coulomb stress changes of the Ms8.1 great earthquake are in favor of triggering 4 aftershocks.     

Ionospheric electromagnetic perturbations observed on DEMETER satellite before Chile M7.9 earthquake

Based on the ionospheric electromagnetic data observed on DEMETER satellite of France, the ionospheric electromagnetic signals were analyzed within 10 days before Chile M7.9 earthquake on November 14, 2007. It is found that, low frequency electromagnetic disturbances began to increase in a large scale of latitude, and reached to a maximum one week prior to the earthquake, and at about three days before the quake, the peak values shifted to lower latitude. Taking three days as a group, spatial images of a fe...     

川滇黔桂地区下、中三叠统层序划分、对比及层序地层格架

在对研究区不同相带内典型剖面详细观测、层序界面识别基础上,将区内下、中三叠统划分出六个三级层序,分别命名为S₁ ～S₆,其中下三叠统印度阶一个 (S₁ )、奥伦尼阶两个 (S₂ ～S₃),中三叠统安尼阶两个 (S₄～S₅)、拉丁阶一个 (S₆),从年代地层考虑早三叠延续时限为 3.9Ma,则S1 、S2 、S3层序延续的时限平均为 1.3Ma。中三叠统延续的时限为 6.1Ma,则S4、S5、S6 层序所延续的时限平均分别为 2.0 3Ma。按层序底面性质可分出 4个Ⅰ型层序 (S₂ 、S₃、S₄、S₅)和 2个Ⅱ型层序 (S₁ 、S₆),并进行了区域层序对比,进而建立了区内下、中三叠统层序地层格架模型,详细讨论了各层序的次级组成单元 (体系域 )的几何形态和相互关系随时间的迁移所发生的相应变化。     

THE LATE QUATERNARY RIGHT LATERAL STRIKE-SLIPPING OF ZHONGDIAN—DAJU FAULT IN NORTHWEST YUNNAN, CHINA

THE LATE QUATERNARY RIGHT LATERAL STRIKE-SLIPPING OF ZHONGDIAN—DAJU FAULT IN NORTHWEST YUNNAN, CHINAthesubject“TherecentdisplacementandDynamicsoflithosphereintheQinghai XizangPlateau”ofnation alclimbingproject“Therecentdisp     

Late Cenozoic Tectonics Along the Northwestern Margin of the Tarim Basin: Interactions Between the Tarim Basin and the Southern Tian Shan, West China

LATE CENOZOIC TECTONICS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MARGIN OF THE TARIM BASIN: INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE TARIM BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN TIAN SHAN, WEST CHINAgrants 4 98340 50and 4 9732 0 90fromtheNSFofChina;;andproject96 913 0 7 0 1fromtheMinistryofSci enceandTechnology ,China…