基于无人机航摄的高陡/直立边坡快速地形测量及三维数值建模方法

对复杂地形的高陡/直立边坡的地形测量及三维数值模型的建立一直是地质工作者面临的难题。近年来,无人机由于其形体小巧、机动性强以及可以获取高分辨率影像的特性在地质调查中受到了广泛的应用。本文基于低空无人机倾斜摄影技术,借助Agisoft Photoscan三维实景建模软件和基于逆向工程的Geomagic Studio强大的点云数据处理功能,结合南方CASS的地形制图功能对复杂地形的高陡/直立边坡实现快速地形成图。并利用Geomagic Studio的CAD曲面建模功能,重构复杂地形的高陡/直立边坡闭合CAD曲面模型,再通过Hypermesh强大的几何处理及网格划分能力,对CAD曲面模型进行模型切割并网格化,实现复杂地形的高陡/直立边坡的精细三维数值模型的建立,最后转化为FLAC3D可识别的文件格式进行计算分析。本文选择了浙江省神仙居景区飞天瀑景点作为实例研究,结果表明,无人机的使用使复杂地形的高陡/直立边坡实现了快速高效且精确的地形成图和三维建模。该方法具有简单实用、快速便捷且实用性强的优点。     

波控岬间海岸平衡剖面形态及其地形学意义

对粤东后江岬间海岸１９９２年和１９９２年７条重复地形剖面分析结果表明,当前各剖面年净冲淤变化很小,剖面分别与Ｂｏｄｇｅ和Ｌｅｅ平衡剖面模式符合良好,拟合的平衡剖面闭合水深反映了在海区波候条件作用下泥沙运动的临界水深。     

有云条件下HIRS/3资料的同化及其对“珍珠”台风的影响

卫星红外辐射资料汽接同化容易受到云的影响,大量卫星资料在有云情况下无法直接同化,其原因之一就是初始云结构难以获取.而云结构是同化系统观测算子的重要输入参数,缺乏云的结构信息,观测算子尤法模拟有云环境下的亮温.热带地区以及台风、暴雨等极端天气系统与云密不可分,要改进卫星辐射资料特别是红外资料直接同化的效果,需要获得较高精度的云三维结构.在GRAPES-3DVAR(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)基础上,结合WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,天气研究和预报模式)对"珍珠"台风云结构的模拟,增加模拟的云参数作为GRAPES-3DVAR同化系统中RTTOV模式(fast radiative transfer model for TOVS,快速辐射传输模式)的输入参数,改进了有云环境下卫星资料直接同化的观测算子,研究了红外辐射资料直接同化的方法,并分析其对"珍珠"台风预报的影响.针对NOAAl6(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,美国国家海洋和大气管理局)的HIRS/3(High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder,高分辨率红外辐射探测仪3型)第4-8、10、13 19通道辐射亮温的同化试验表明,结合初始云结构信息改进同化系统观测算子,可以将红外辎射资料的观测信息同化到模式之中,改进台风温度、湿度结构,对短时降水预报有正面影响.     

广东雷电活动的对流潜热特征

基于LIS和Latent Heat Research Product等TRMM卫星产品及广东省闪电定位仪观测资料对广东雷电活动进行了分析,结果发现:粤北、粤东和粤西等convLHMean(对流潜热)上下层差值为50K/h以上的较大正值区域基本对应着较高的山脉地形,说明对流潜热的垂直变化与广东地区山地抬升作用有一定的关系...     

MODIS brightness temperature data assimilation under cloudy conditions Ⅱ: Impacts on rainstorm forecasting

Although satellite observations provide large amount of information of clouds and precipitation and play an important role in the forecast of heavy rainfall, they have not been fully taken advantage of in data assimilation of numerical weather predictions, especially those in infrared channels. Assimilating radiances is common under clear-sky conditions since it is extremely difficult to simulate infrared transmittance in cloudy sky. Based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System 3-dimensional variance (GRAPES-3DVar), cloud liquid water content, ice-water content and cloud cover are employed as governing variables in the assimilation system. This scheme can improve the simulation of infrared transmittance by a fast radiative transfer model for TOVS (RTTOV) and adjust the atmospheric and cloud parameters based on infrared radiance observations. In this paper, we investigate a heavy rainfall over Guangdong province on May 26, 2007, which is right after the onset of a South China Sea monsoon. In this case, channels of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for observing water vapor (Channel 27) and cloud top altitude (Channel 36) are selected for the assimilation. The process of heavy rainfall is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our results show that the assimilated MODIS data can improve the distribution of water vapor and temperature in the first guess field and indirectly adjust the upper-level wind field. The tendency of adjustment agrees well with the satellite observations. The assimilation scheme has positive impacts on the short-range forecasting of rainstorm.     

中尺度数值模式的资料同化系统：（一）伴随模式的设计

以一个有限区域的中尺度模式为基础,采用伴随模式技术进行有限区域气象资料的同化。伴随模式的方法是以数值天气预报的动力模式作为约束条件的变分方法,比传统的变分方法有了很大的改进。本文初步探讨了伴随模式系统的设计方法,特别是伴随模式的构造问题;用共轭码地方法导出伴随模式;初步试验表明该系统有较强的同化能力。     

A STUDY ON THE PREDICT ABILITY OF GRAPES MODEL OVER SOUTH CHINA: COMPARISONS BY TWO INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS BETWEEN ECMWF AND NCEP

This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions between two global models (GMs), i.e., the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) forecasts for south China. A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified. Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China, as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In particular, the ICs from ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region but with a more detailed structure than NCEP. In general, the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China. Moreover, GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by ECMWF. The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that use regional models driven by the GMs.     

高分辨地形对华南区域GRAPES模式地面要素预报影响的研究

华南区域GRAPES模式动力框架的更新使得高分辨地形数据能够进入模式。引入SRTM数据实现静态数据更新,结合模式内置数据,进行了批量模拟试验;通过站点检验方式,对批量试验结果进行对比,得出以下结论:对比业务使用的Topo10 m地形、Topo30 s地形、SRTM地形和基于SRTM多种插值方案得到的地形,海拔偏差的空间分布和分位数统计都有明显的改善,复杂地形区域的改善效果更显著。通过地面要素平均绝对误差(MAE)箱须图统计和模式西部站点绝对误差(AE)时间序列图对比分析,发现高分辨地形试验的2 m气温和10 m风速MAE和AE有大幅度的改善。高分辨地形对模式静态数据的改善是2 m气温和10 m风速MAE下降的主要原因,地形复杂区域对MAE改善的贡献高于模式其他区域。高分辨地形进入模式后会引起动力过程计算的虚假扰动,适当的滤波平滑能够抑制扰动,从而进一步提高预报精度。      

对流天气系统自动站雨量资料同化对降雨预报的影响

利用GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统,针对对流天气系统特点,用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子,同化广东省自动站记录的对流天气系统的雨量资料,并且与同化探空资料进行了比较.在雨带有明显改进的区域,分别同化这两种资料都可以调整大气低层水汽辐合增加(或辐散),对流层中下层增暖增湿(或变冷变干),从而增加(或减少)降水,表明降水的同化方案对初始场的调整在一定     

Performance Evaluation of the GRAPES Model in Wind Simulations Over South China

In the present study, the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was assessed. The simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south China. The results show that the GRAPES model could provide a reliable simulation of the distribution and diurnal variation of the wind. It showed a generally overestimated southerly wind speed especially over the Pearl River Delta region and the south of Jiangxi Province as well as the coastal region over south China. GRAPES also exhibited a large number of stations with the opposite surface wind directions over the east of Guangxi and the south of Jiangxi during the nocturnal- to-morning period, as well as an overall overestimation of surface wind over the coastal regions during the afternoon. Although GRAPES could simulate the general evolutional characteristics of vertical wind profile, it underestimated wind speed above 900 hPa and overestimated wind speed below 900 hPa. Though the parameterization scheme of gravity wave drag proved to be an effective method to alleviate the systematic deviation of wind simulation, GRAPES still exhibited large errors in wind simulation, especially in the lower and upper troposphere.