Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅡ:Improvement of Wave Component Prediction

Based on Chen et al. (2006), the scheme of the combination of the pentad-mean zonal height departure nonlinear prediction with the T42L9 model prediction was designed, in which the pentad zonal heights at all the 12-initial-value-input isobar levels from 50 hPa to 1000 hPa except 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa were derived from nonlinear forecasts of the four levels by means of a good correlation between neighboring levels. Then the above pentad zonal heights at 12 isobar-levels were transformed to the spectrum coefficients of the temperature at each integration step of T42L9 model. At last, the nudging was made. On account of a variety of error accumulation, the pentad zonal components of the monthly height at isobar levels output by T42L9 model were replaced by the corresponding nonlinear results once more when integration was over. Multiple case experiments showed that such combination of two kinds of prediction made an improvement in the wave component as a result of wave-flow nonlinear interaction while reducing the systematical forecast errors. Namely the monthly-mean height anomaly correlation coefficients over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the Southern Hemisphere and over the globe increased respectively from 0.249 to 0.347, from 0.286 to 0.387, and from 0.343 to 0.414 (relative changes of 31.5%, 41.0%, and 18.3%). The monthly-mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of T42L9 model over the three areas was considerably decreased, the relative change over the globe reached 44.2%. The monthly-mean anomaly correlation coefficients of wave 4-9 over the areas were up to 0.392, 0.200, and 0.295, with the relative change of 53.8%, 94.1%, and 61.2%, and correspondingly their RMSEs were decreased respectively with the rate of 8.5%, 6.3%, and 8.1%. At the same time the monthly-mean pattern of parts of cases were presented better.     

Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅠ:Prediction of Zonal Mean Flow

Systematic errors have recently been founded to be distinct in the zonal mean component forecasts, which account for a large portion of the total monthly-mean forecast errors. To overcome the difficulty of numerical model, the monthly pentad-riean nonlinear dynamic regional prediction models of the zonal mean geopotential height at 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa based on a large number of historical data (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data) were constituted by employing the local approximation of the phase space reconstruction theory and nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method. The 12-month forecast experiments of 1996 indicated that the results of the nonlinear model are better than those of the persistent, climatic prediction, and T42L9 model either over the high- and mid-latitude areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres or the tropical area. The root-mean-square of the monthly-mean height of T42L9 model was considerably decreased with a change of 30.4%, 26.6%, 82.6%, and 39.4%, respectively, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, over the tropics and over the globe, and also the corresponding anomaly correlation coefficients over the four areas were respectively increased by 0.306-0.312, 0.304-0.429, 0.739-0.746, and 0.360-0.400 (averagely a relative change of 11.0% over the globe) by nonlinear correction after integration, implying that the forecasts given by nonlinear model include more useful information than those of T42L9 model.     

基于差值信噪比法的船载地波雷达一阶谱识别

本文提出了适用于船载地波雷达展宽一阶谱识别的差值信噪比方法。通过结合仿真分析和实测试验数据,开展了船载地波雷达展宽一阶谱的频移和展宽特性分析,确定了一阶谱的最大展宽范围与平台运动速度之间的定量关系。通过分析一维多普勒频点间的差值数量关系,确定了边界预筛选准则。利用展宽一阶谱的区域连续特性,实现展宽一阶谱边界最终识别。采用船载地波雷达仿真和实测数据对所提方法的有效性进行了验证,所提方法相对于传统方法取得了较好的识别效果。     

中国可持续发展数据仓库建设

中国可持续发展信息共享是我国为探索国家层次上信息共享的示范,旨在向政府部门与社会公众提供可持续发展各专题的数据与信息服务,数据仓库的建设是实现信息共享与服务的支撑和基础。本文首先通过数据提取、数据转化、数据清洗以及创建元数据和数据字典等步骤,对多源异构的中国可持续发展数据进行了体系化扩展和标准化改造,为数据进入仓库奠定了基础。之后通过一套新颖的数据多维组织模式,即基于可持续发展信息分类与编码的数据组织、基于元数据和数据字典的数据组织、基于空间和时间的数据组织及面向数据集市的部门级数据组织这四种方式的综合应用,实现了海量可持续发展数据的组织和管理,建立了一个集中式的可持续发展数据仓库。最后介绍了数据仓库管理平台,并对基于该数据仓库的可持续发展数据共享和网络服务进行了展示。中国可持续发展数据仓库的建立为中国可持续发展信息共享和服务提供了良好数据基础,对国家级大型信息共享工程的建设具有一定的借鉴意义。     

IBIS-S测量系统动态测量及数据分析

随着科学技术的发展,建筑的设计要求越来越新颖,大楼的建设形状和高度不断突破。在施工、运营阶段,建筑的变形监测工作变得越来越重要。施工中必须实时提供建筑物的形变信息,给施工单位提供足够的数据参考来保证施工过程的正常运作。对大楼建设过程中的安全性进行了评估。IBIS-S系统可以对建筑物进行高精度实时变形监测,实时掌握建筑物的动态变化。     

基于CGCS2000椭球的坐标转换程序实现与精度分析

现有的公式和坐标转换软件多基于克拉索夫斯基椭球或1975国际椭球,不利于解算。基于VS2008平台,用C#语言开发了基于CGCS2000椭球参数的坐标正反算及坐标换带程序,并对结果进行了精度分析。     

高频地波雷达海杂波背景下的船只目标检测研究进展

针对高频地波雷达目标检测的海杂波干扰问题,分为目标处于海杂波谱区之内和之外两种情况综述了海杂波背景下的目标检测方法。对于海杂波谱区内目标检测的难题,介绍了一种基于现场海态同步观测信息的检测新思路以及初步验证结果。对国内外相关研究进展的归纳总结和新思路的提出,为深入研究相关方法,解决海杂波干扰下的目标检测问题提供了重要的参考。     

牙形石SHRIMP微区原位氧同位素分析方法

氧同位素温度计已被用于古温度变化研究多年。生物化石磷酸盐中的氧同位素组成对古气候环境变化响应灵敏,牙形石在古生代到中生代的古海洋地层中广泛存在,并具有较为重要的地层学意义,是研究古温度变化的最佳样品之一。SHRIMP具备高分辨、高灵敏、高精度和微量及原位微区分析的特点,可以进行20μm范围内的原位(in-situ)同位素分析。本文介绍了作者利用SHRIMP IIe-MC建立的牙形石微区原位氧同位素分析方法,这是国内关于该方法的首次报导。本文对磷灰石标准样Durango进行了测定,连续七昼夜获得的253次测定结果,平均值为δ18 Oapatite=9.78‰±0.29‰,与该标准参考值δ18 Oapatite=9.81‰±0.25‰(Williams,未刊资料)一致。作者并以二叠系—三叠系界线上下海水温度变化研究为示范,对采自西藏文布当桑二叠系—三叠系剖面上的49个层位中的237件牙形石样品进行了914个氧同位素分析,为研究二叠系—三叠系界线上发生的生物灭绝事件前后的海水温度变化提供了可靠详实的数据。     

多层层状介质的瑞利面波频散特性

采用传递矩阵法对多层各向同性的层状弹性固体介质瑞利波相速度频散特性及自由表面的垂直位移强度特征进行研究,便于今后对实测频散曲线有更清楚的认识和更合理的反演解释.设计多组含4层或5层介质的层状介质模型,利用传递矩阵法计算它们的相速度频散曲线、各阶模式的地表垂直位移曲线和其合并化的频散曲线,从而了解含有绝对或相对软弱夹层的地基模型、正常地层顺序地基模型的频散特性.根据模拟计算结果可知,当地层中存在绝对软弱夹层或相对软弱夹层时,其合并化频散曲线一般会出现"之"字形现象,但二者位移曲线的特征是不同的;含绝对软弱夹层时,位移曲线是各模式分段占优,而含相对软弱夹层时,位移主要还是以基阶模式为主;对于多层介质的正常地基模型而言,其位移曲线也主要是以基阶模式为主,但其合并化频散曲线有时也会出现"之"字形现象,这主要与各介质层的层速度等参数有关.