鄂尔多斯盆地西南部地区上古生界砂体地震预测及勘探新突破

鄂尔多斯盆地西南部地区天然气勘探程度较低,2004年ZT1井在山西组山1段试气荻工业气流,揭示上古生界具备良好的勘探前景.上古生界天然气成藏特征研究表明,二叠系发育西南物源石英砂岩储集体,主要含气层系是山西组山1段、石盒子组盒8段,砂体厚度相对较薄,埋深超过4000m.区内储层普遍致密,局部发育相对高渗层段,与煤系烃源岩配置良好,是形成致密砂岩气藏的有利区带.本文应用地震勘探攻关成果,建立主力砂体地震响应模式,进一步落实了山1、盒8砂体的展布,结合探井钻探效果,优选了有利钻探目标.在试气方法上引入体积压裂理念,QT1井试气获工业气流,勘探取得新突破.对研究区天然气成藏条件的分析、主力砂体地震预测模式及试气工艺等成功经验的总结,对该区天然气勘探的深入开展具有重要的指导意义.     

西宁地震台前兆观测干扰分析

对西宁地震台2008年1月至2013年5月各前兆测项受到的干扰情况进行了分析,认为周边环境以及气压突变和雷电等气象因素未造成干扰,存在的干扰主要是人为干扰和观测技术系统干扰。     

阳坡里隧道纵穿滑坡体段变形破坏机制与加固效应研究

以武罐高速公路阳坡里隧道为依托,深入探讨了隧道纵向穿越滑坡体情况下隧道与滑坡的相互作用机制及变形破坏模式。在理论分析的基础上提出了针对性的综合工程防治设计方案,并采用强度折减有限元法与极限平衡法对隧道穿越滑坡段的开挖加固效应进行了分析研究,对开挖加固前、后滑坡的稳定性进行了对比分析。结果表明：在隧道开挖条件下,滑坡的稳定性满足规范要求,目前该工程正在施工中,安全稳定性良好。另外,研究表明：纵穿滑坡体段的隧道结构对滑坡体来讲是一个重要的“抗滑结构体”,由于受滑坡推力作用隧道衬砌结构所受主应力发生明显偏转,当进入基岩后,随着隧道拱顶距基岩与覆盖层接触面距离的增加,衬砌所受各主应力逐渐转变为正常状态。提出的隧道纵穿滑坡段的分析思路和综合防治方案对类似工程有一定的借鉴和指导意义。     

火灾高温作用下波纹腹板钢梁剪切屈曲系数研究

波纹腹板钢梁具有优良的抗剪切性能,在常温条件下,它的剪切屈曲模式通常有3种：局部剪切屈曲、总体剪切屈曲和相关剪切屈曲。根据火灾燃烧不同时刻波纹腹板钢梁的温度变化,考虑火灾高温对结构钢材料性能的影响,研究了波纹腹板钢梁在火灾高温作用下的3种剪切屈服模式,给出了高温下波纹腹板钢梁临界剪切屈曲应力和剪切屈曲系数的计算表达式,分析了其随火灾温度的变化趋势,提出在进行火灾高温作用下的波纹腹板钢梁的力学性能分析时,应首先根据钢梁剪切屈曲系数的变化,准确判断其在火灾燃烧不同阶段所处的受力状态,从而使火灾高温下波纹腹板钢梁的受力分析更加精确合理。     

非通航孔桥墩自适应拦截网防撞装置实船拦截试验与水动力计算

针对非通航孔桥墩,研发了一种自适应拦截网防船舶撞击装置,主要由系泊大浮体、系泊锚链和固定锚、自适应小浮筒、拦截网、恒阻力缆绳以及触发钢索所组成。阐述了该防撞装置设计原理,即偏航船舶撞击该防撞装置,小浮筒会带动拦截网自适应地从水平状态竖起展开,包裹住来撞船首,再通过相连浮体的运动阻力和恒阻力缆绳来吸收船舶动能,拦截住船舶,保护非通航孔桥墩安全。随后介绍在福建平潭海峡大桥引桥附近海域实施的实船撞击自适应拦截网防撞装置的大型试验,试验结果显示:自适应拦截网成功升起,船舶被安全拦截,从而实验证实了设计原理与设计方案的可行性和可靠性。最后,采用大型水动力分析软件AQWA对防撞装置拦截船舶过程进行数值模拟,模拟结果与实验结果基本一致,说明了数值仿真具有较好的计算精度和可靠性,能够为该防撞装置的结构设计与优化提供重要的参考。     

第二次国际印度洋科学考察计划(IIOE-2)介绍

为纪念首次国际印度洋科学考察计划(International Indian Ocean Expedition,IIOE)成功实施50周年,进一步推动印度洋多学科交叉的新认识,政府间海洋学委员会(Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission,IOC)、国际海洋研究科学委员会(Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research,SCOR)和印度洋全球海洋观测系统计划(Indian Ocean Global Ocean Observing System,IOGOOS)在2015年联合启动了第二次国际印度洋科学考察计划(Second International Indian Ocean Expedition,IIOE-2,2015—2020年)。本文简要回顾了首次IIOE的发起、实施和主要成果,介绍了IIOE-2的主要内容和我国的优先参与方向,呼吁我国科学家将IIOE-2与我国"一带一路"倡议相结合,更加积极地参与IIOE-2国际合作,推动在印度洋环流与气候、海洋生态系统与可持续发展、地球生物化学循环、海底科学等领域取得新的科学进展。     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Niño indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST, over the period of January 1982 to October 2003, the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Niño1+2, Niño3.4, Niño3, and Niño4 indices with time lags of 10, 3, 6, 5, and 6 months, respectively. Thus, a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1–12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated, using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992. The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1–12 months. The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1–12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent. The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years, in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years. We designed the two forecast models: one using both DMI and Niño indices and the other using only Niño indices without DMI, and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases. The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas. By turning off the DMI, the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS, suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area. The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI, while using both of Niño indices and DMI, the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months, suggesting that the Niño indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS. Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1–12 month lead time (the persisted prediction). Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction, especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months). The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy, i.e., the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas, when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level. For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts, the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2. The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1–12 month lead time are also examined.     

“太阳风”探测方法

“太阳风”探测方法刁顺（中国石油天然气总公司科技发展局,北京,１００７２４）张军华王永刚（石油大学,东营,２５７０２６）除了地震方法以外,非地震方法在研究地球内部结构时,也有其独自的长处和特点,可以分为重力、磁法和电法三类方法。磁法和电法在研究地球结...     

我国潮汐潮流区域预报的发展

简要回顾了我国潮汐潮流区域预报的发展过程。1959—1964年期间按前苏联杜瓦宁方法编制的永久潮流表是第一代预报产品,该产品提供了我国近海若干站点5 m层潮流预报资料。1970—1978年期间按方国洪提出的方法而研制的永久预报图表集是第二代预报产品,提供了基本上覆盖我国近海的多层潮流预报资料;这两代产品均以纸质图表为载体。2005—2006年期间方国洪等研制了第三代预报产品,覆盖了我国近海各海区,分辨率达到5′×5′,垂向10层,并可自动内插到任意点和任意水层。同时介绍了三代产品的研发过程及基本原理。     

南海等密度面环流季节变化的数值模拟研究

In this study, we develop a variable-grid global ocean general circulation model(OGCM) with a fine grid(1/6)°covering the area from 20°S–50°N and from 99°–150°E, and use the model to investigate the isopycnal surface circulation in the South China Sea(SCS). The simulated results show four layer structures in vertical: the surface and subsurface circulation of the SCS are characterized by the monsoon driven circulation, with basin-scaled cyclonic gyre in winter and anti-cyclonic gyre in summer. The intermediate layer circulation is opposite to the upper layer, showing anti-cyclonic gyre in winter but cyclonic gyre in summer. The circulation in the deep layer is much weaker in spring and summer, with the maximum velocity speed below 0.6 cm/s. In fall and winter, the SCS deep layer circulation shows strong east boundary current along the west coast of Philippine with the velocity speed at 1.5 m/s, which flows southward in fall and northward in winter. The results have also revealed a fourlayer vertical structure of water exchange through the Luzon Strait. The dynamics of the intermediate and deep circulation are attributed to the monsoon driving and the Luzon Strait transport forcing.