虚拟仿真技术在帆船运动中的应用研究

根据天气和海况对帆船训练和比赛的影响,通过对帆船的受力分析,建立帆船受力的动力学模型,借助虚拟现实技术,可以预设不同的比赛环境,实现对帆船运动的模拟仿真,辅助帆船日常训练和竞技分析。     

中国沿海海表温度均一性检验和订正

利用惩罚最大T检验（Penalized Maximal T test,PMT）方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,基于月平均地面气温（SAT）资料,利用相关系数权重平均方法构建参考序列,同时结合元数据信息,对1960-2011年中国沿海27个海洋观测站月平均海表温度（SST）进行了均一性检验与订正,并分析了造成海表温度序列非均一的主要原因。结果表明,中国沿海海洋台站海表温度资料存在较为严重的非均一性问题,几乎所有的台站都存在断点,仪器变更（包括人工观测转自动观测）（占总断点数的52.4%）和迁站（占总断点数的33.3%）是造成序列非均一的主要原因。整套资料负订正量所占比例较高,这种负订正量与人工转自动观测后海表温度观测值偏低有密切关系。这也使得订正后中国沿海平均海表温度趋势与订正前存在明显差异,订正后中国沿海海表温度呈明显的加速上升趋势。     

冬季大风影响下的渤黄海水交换特征

利用 ROMS海洋数值模式对 2006年冬季渤黄海的海洋动力环境进行模拟,基于温度、盐度模拟结果,使用谱混合 模型进行水团分析,定义了渤海海峡地区的水交换区。并进一步讨论了冬季大风事件对水交换区的影响,给出了冬季大风影 响下的渤黄海水交换特征。研究得出,冬季的黄海水团以“舌”形分布于渤海海峡地区,水交换区则表现为沿" 舌" 形边缘 呈带状分布,具有西北--东南的走向趋势,并且在“舌”尖处的水交换面积最大。通过缩小研究范围,发现位于黄海最北部 的沿岸海域并不参与渤黄海之间的水体交换。最后研究发现,冬季大风事件对渤海水交换具有促进作用,具体表现为：大风 过程使黄海暖流对渤海的入侵更加深入,水交换区向渤海方向伸展,南部的水交换带变宽,河流径流进入渤海后与渤海水的 混合区加大,并发生北移。     

基于遥感资料的北黄海叶绿素a浓度时空演变特征分析

海表叶绿素 a （Chl-a） 的分布具有明显的空间区域性以及动态发展特征,分析叶绿素 a 浓度的长期变化趋势对了解海洋初级生产力发展、生态监测具有重要意义。北黄海渔业资源丰富,是我国重要的渔场,为调查海域整体生态系统稳定 性,本文利用 Hermes 提供的多源卫星融合数据,从遥感视野,运用 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验方法,在全局尺度分析 1998—2019 年北黄海叶绿素 a 浓度的年际、季节变化特征及其演变规律,分析了其动态变化特征与环境要素的相关性。研究发现,北黄海叶绿素 a 空间分布区域性强,具有明显的季节变化。近海海域浓度高于深海海域,辽东半岛大洋河口具有一高值中心,这与陆源输入有关。除西朝鲜湾附近海域呈微弱的上升趋势外,其他海域均呈现下降趋势,近岸海域下降趋势显著,这意味着西朝鲜湾附近海域浮游植物可能有更强的生长潜力。北黄海 Chl-a 浓度变化影响因素复杂且区域性强,Chl-a 浓度与环境因素仅部分月份存在较强的相关关系,季节上不同因素存在相对主导的相关性。相关环境因素在一定程度上均会对Chl-a 的分布和变化产生影响,时间上,9 月 PAR 与 Chl-a 有相对较强的负相关关系。空间上,光合有效辐射相较海表温度、海表风速对 Chl-a 浓度影响较大。冬季,辽东半岛南部海域与 SSW 呈相对较强的正相关;夏季在海域西部则与 SST 呈相对较强的负相关。沿岸径流输入的减少可能是近岸 Chl-a 呈下降趋势的原因。     

DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA ANTICYCLONE FOR THE IMPACT OF EL NI?O IN PEAK PHASES WITH AND WITHOUT A POSITIVE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE

The different impacts of El Ni?o during peak phases with and without a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (P-IOD) on the Northwest Pacific circulation were studied. The authors focused on the Northwest Pacific circulation features in the mature phase of El Ni?o from September to February of the next year. Composite maps and simulations demonstrate that the atmospheric circulation under the impact of El Ni?o with and without P-IOD exhibits large differences in temporal evolution and intensity. In single El Ni?o (SE) years without a P-IOD, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation around the Philippines (PSAC) is instigated by the single El Ni?o-induced Indonesian subsidence. However, during the years when El Ni?o and a P-IOD matured simultaneously, a much greater anomalous subsidence over the western Pacific and the Maritime Continent occurred. The PSAC tends to occur earlier, is much stronger and has a longer lifetime than that during SE. More importantly, the PSAC shows a characteristic of an eastward movement from the southern South China Sea (SCS) to the Philippine Sea. This characteristic does not appear during SE. These patterns imply that a positive IOD event tends to exert a prominent influence on the PSAC during El Ni?o events and there is a combined impact of El Ni?o and P-IOD on the development of the PSAC.     

环渤海沿岸海表温度资料的均一性检验与订正

本文对环渤海沿岸具有代表性且资料完整的6个海洋观测站的月均海表温度(SST)序列作均一性检验和订正。我国海洋观测站密集度低,难以选择参考序列,本文首先采用不依赖参考序列的惩罚最大F检验(PMFT)方法对SST序列检验,利用详尽的元数据对检验结果进行确认,再对不连续点订正,该方法适用于元数据详尽的海洋观测站。对于元数据不详尽的观测站,使用惩罚最大T检验(PMT)方法,选取与海洋台站距离近且相关显著的气象观测站的均一化地面气温序列来制作参考序列,对SST序列进行检验和订正。结果表明,环渤海地区SST序列都存在一定非均一性,观测站较大距离迁移和观测系统变更(从人工观测到自动化观测)是造成非均一性的重要原因。订正后的环渤海地区年平均SST增温趋势更加明显。本文使用不同方法来检验SST序列的均一性,该思路对沿海其他海区观测站SST均一性检验和订正有一定参考价值和应用前景,可为沿海气候变化研究提供科学准确的第一手资料。     

东海沿海季节性海平面异常成因

Based on the analysis of sea level, air temperature, sea surface temperature(SST), air pressure and wind data during 1980–2013, the causes of seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the East China Sea(ECS) are investigated. The research results show:(1) sea level along the coastal region of the ECS takes on strong seasonal variation. The annual range is 30–45 cm, larger in the north than in the south. From north to south, the phase of sea level changes from 140° to 231°, with a difference of nearly 3 months.(2) Monthly mean sea level(MSL)anomalies often occur from August to next February along the coast region of the ECS. The number of sea level anomalies is at most from January to February and from August to October, showing a growing trend in recent years.(3) Anomalous wind field is an important factor to affect the sea level variation in the coastal region of the ECS. Monthly MSL anomaly is closely related to wind field anomaly and air pressure field anomaly. Wind-driven current is essentially consistent with sea surface height. In August 2012, the sea surface heights at the coastal stations driven by wind field have contributed 50%–80% of MSL anomalies.(4) The annual variations for sea level,SST and air temperature along the coastal region of the ECS are mainly caused by solar radiation with a period of12 months. But the correlation coefficients of sea level anomalies with SST anomalies and air temperature anomalies are all less than 0.1.(5) Seasonal sea level variations contain the long-term trends and all kinds of periodic changes. Sea level oscillations vary in different seasons in the coastal region of the ECS. In winter and spring, the oscillation of 4–7 a related to El Ni?o is stronger and its amplitude exceeds 2 cm. In summer and autumn, the oscillations of 2–3 a and quasi 9 a are most significant, and their amplitudes also exceed 2 cm. The height of sea level is lifted up when the different oscillations superposed. On the other hand, the height of sea level is fallen down.     

20世纪80年代中期以来东亚大槽和东中国海海温关系的年代际减弱和成因分析

基于Had ISST(Hadley Centre Sea-ice and Sea surface Temperature Data Set)的月平均海温(SST)资料,对1960-2012年中国近海冬季SST的长期变化趋势进行了详细分析。结果显示冬季SST经历了一个显著的升温过程,增幅达0.018℃/年,在80年代末期发生了显著的气候增暖过程。对东亚冬季风子系统与冬季东中国海SST关系的年代际变化进行了分析。结果发现在1960-2012年间,东亚冬季风5个关键子系统中,东亚大槽与东中国海冬季SST年际变率上关系最为密切。进一步研究发现,自20世纪80年代中期以来,东亚大槽和东中国海冬季SST都发生了明显的年代际变化,其中东亚大槽为年代际减弱,而东中国海冬季SST发生了年代际增暖。尽管1960-2012年间东亚大槽与东中国海冬季SST有显著的负相关关系,但这种统计相关在1989-2012年期间显著减弱。这种相关减弱的原因很可能是由于NPO(North Pacific Oscillation)的年代际变化背景下的东亚大槽的强度减弱有关。