相似方法在夏季降水预报中的应用

以短期降水为研究对象,利用Ｔ１０６资料提供的７００ｈＰａ高度场和８５０ｈＰａθｓｅ场格点资料,计算欧氏距离找相似的方法,实现了２４、４８ｈ２１个市（县）夏季降水预报的自动化。经检验达到一定的精度,可成为日常预报的参考工具。     

纯橄岩中橄榄石的铬铁矿出溶页片

莱芜铁铜沟闪长岩体中发现了大量的超镁铁质岩捕掳体,其中纯橄岩捕掳体中的橄榄石含有多种矿物包裹体,包括罕见的页片状铬铁矿、自形粒状铬铁矿以及单个的圆粒状单斜辉石。含水矿物的存在、铬铁矿页片偏高的Fe^3 含量以及定向生长的方位表明,铬铁矿页片只大量出现在强烈变形纯橄岩内的橄榄石残斑中,页片主要沿橄榄石的(100)位错壁生长,纯橄岩曾受到流体的影响(含金云母、角闪石)。铬铁矿页片只是橄榄石降温和氧化的结果,和降压没有直接联系。     

GLIMMER Antarctic Ice Sheet Model,an experimental research of moving boundary condition

A 3-D coupled ice sheet model, GLIMMER model is introduced, and an idealized ice sheet experiment under the EISMINT-1 criterion of moving boundary condition is presented. The results of the experiment reveal that for a steady-state ice sheet profile the characteristic curves describe the process of evolution which are accordant with theoretical estimates. By solving the coupled thermodynamics equations of ice sheet, one may find the characteristic curves which derived from the conservation of the mass, energy and momentum to the ice flow profile. At the same time, an agreement, approximate to the GLIMMER case and the confirmed theoretical results, is found. Present study is explorihg work to introduce and discuss the handicaps of EISMINT criterion and GLIMMER, and prospect a few directions of the GLIMMER model.     

Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

青岛多种天气下生物气溶胶中细菌群落特征

为探究雾、霾、沙尘等多种天气下生物气溶胶中细菌群落结构特征,于2017年12月-2018年4月采集了青岛晴天和多种特殊天气下的大气生物气溶胶样品,运用16 S rRNA高通量测序方法分析了样品中细菌群落结构.结果表明,在雾、霾、沙尘天均检测到对人体健康存在潜在危害的条件致病菌,其中变形菌门(Proteobacteria...     

南极普里兹湾夏季海冰边缘区内破碎海冰的分布特征

基于中国第21次南极考察中获得的69°00'S、76°24'E附近普里兹湾夏季海冰边缘区内破碎海冰的航拍照片,利用图像处理的方法从中提取了破碎海冰的若干几何参数,得到了海冰边缘区内随着与开阔水域距离增大,海冰面积、平均钳测直径等几何参数的变化规律。并按其尺寸的变化规律将海冰边缘区划分为边界区、过渡区和内部区三部分,其变化和波浪在冰边缘区中的衰减过程紧密相关。圆度的变化则说明海冰边缘区中海冰磨损最充分的地方是在冰间相互作用最明显的过渡区。另外,一种改进的幂函数分布和Weibull分布用来对破碎海冰尺寸的累积频率进行拟合,分布函数中各参数的变化情况很好的反映了海冰边缘区内破碎海冰的分布变化。其中,参数L_r随着与开阔水距离增加而增大(说明由于波能衰减导致可以出现的破碎海冰最大尺寸的增加);尺度参数L₀随着与开阔水距离增加而增大(反映了破碎海冰平均尺寸的增加以及由于波能的衰减而导致单位面积区域内尺寸较大的破碎海冰所占比例的增加);分布维数D随着与开阔水距离增加而减小(说明了由于波能的衰减导致破碎海冰所受约束条件的减弱);形状参数γ随着与开阔水距离增加而减小(说明了随着波能的衰减破碎海冰尺寸分布范围的增大)。     

国外灾害风险管理对我国城市洪水保险的启示

全球变化和城市化的共同作用将导致城市洪涝灾害加剧,在这一新背景下,结合国外灾害风险管理的研究,对洪水保险进行了有益的探索,针对以前我国洪水保险试点在农村地区失败的原因,提议我国应该从城市开始实施洪水保险计划,认为实施城市洪水保险有必要性和可行性,可以进一步拓展城市洪涝灾害风险管理的渠道。     

地下水动态数据库系统

本文以格尔木地区地下水动态数据库系统为例介绍笔者所开发的地下水动态数据库系统的结构、功能与特色。该数据库系统是由汉字DBASEⅢ与BASIC、FORTRAN等语言的有机结合而构成的,它可以为主管、计划部门提供各种地下水动态报表及其相关图件;为资料管理人员提供现代化存贮与统—管理地下水动态及其相关资料的手段,为技术人员提供查询、分析与预测地下水动态的方法,并附有准确、美观的图表输出。     

内陆盐湖石盐流体包裹体均—温度指示意义的现代过程研究

Halite precipitation with water and air temperature was observed in detail, and homogenization temperature of fluid inclusions in halite formed in ancient and modem Chaka Salt Lake was studied. Halite precipitates mainly in August every year and largely precipitates between 13 and 15pm at one day when water temperatures reach 20℃ but can seldom reach 30℃. Homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions in halite formed in Chaka Salt Lake range from 14℃ to 38℃ with an average of 23.7℃. The number of inclusions appears an obvious peak value at homogenization temperatures between 18 - 25℃, which probably represent the water temperature in which halite mainly precipitates when water temperatures reach 20℃. Therefore, homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions in halite formed in Chaka Salt Lake can wall reflect the water temperature.     

非线性支持向量机在油气预测中的应用

油气预测的传统方法通常是基于经验风险最小化准则,但在有限样本情况下,预测效果并不理想.研究引入基于结构化风险最小化准则的非线性支持向量机方法,通过对推广误差界的最小化达到最大的泛化能力和全局最优,时于小样本数据,该方法具有可靠的预测能力.在对四川观音场构造面新统上部碳酸盐岩储层数据处理中.通过实例试算,结果表明该方法有效可靠,预测精度高,与已知结果吻合较好.