1960-2015年中国绿洲胡杨生长季对全球变暖的时空响应及原因（英文）

Daily average temperature data from 48 meteorological stations in Chinese oases that are within the distribution area of Populus euphratica were analyzed to determine the spatiotemporal responses of this tree to climate change. Specifically, the start and end date as well as the number of days that comprised the growing season were analyzed with a multi-year trend line and using the Mann-Kendall mutation test, inverse distance weighted interpolation(IDW) in the software Arc GIS, a Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. The results of this study show that, over the last 56 years, the start date of the P. euphratica growing season has advanced, while the end date has been postponed, and the number of days that comprise the growing season have gradually increased. The changing trend rates recovered in this analysis for these three time slices are –1.34 d/10 a, 1.33 d/10 a, and 2.66 d/10 a(α≥ 0.001), respectively. Data show that while spatial disparity is extremely significant, it is nevertheless the case that along a southwest-to-northeast transect of Chinese oases, the later the start date of the P. euphratica season, the sooner the end data and the shorter the growing season. Mutations points in start and end date, as well as for the growing season overall were observed in 2001, 1989, and 1996, respectively, and the data presented in this paper show that, in particular, the date of this end of this period is most sensitive to climate warming. Growing season cycles for P. euphratica are between 3.56 years and 7.14 years, consistent with the periodicity of El Ni?o events, while a start date cycle between 3.56 years and 4.28 years is consistent with atmospheric circulation cyclicity. The causal analysis presented in this paper shows that the Asian polar vortex area index(APVAI), the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau index(TPI), the westerly circulation index(WCI), and carbon dioxide emissions(CDE) are the main factors influencing spatiotemporal changes in the growth of P. euphratica, the effect of latitude during the growing season is more significant than altitude, and the start date of the growing season is more significantly influenced by these factors than end date. In addition, data show that the start date, end date, and length of the growing season are all significantly correlated with their average corresponding monthly temperature(corre-lation coefficients are –0.875, 0.770, and 0.897; α≥0.001). Thus, if the average temperature in March increases by 1℃, the start date of the growing season will advance by 2.21 days, while if the average temperature in October increases by the same margin then the seasonal end date will be delayed by 2.76 days. Similarly, if the average temperature between March and October increases by 1℃, the growing season will be extended by 7.78 days. The results of this study corroborate the fact that changes in the P. euphratica growing are sensitive to regional warming and are thus of considerable theoretical significance to our understanding of the responses of Chinese vegetation to climate change as well as to ecological restoration.     

1980-2009 年国内外旅游研究比较

选取《地理学报》、《地理科学》、《地理研究》、《Annals of Tourism Research》、《Journal ofTravel Research》和《Tourism Management》6 种国内外权威核心刊物,从载文作者、研究领域、研究方法、研究区域4 个方面,对1980-2009 年国内外旅游研究现状进行比较分析。从1980-1989 年、1990-1999 年和2000-2009 年3 个阶段,比较国内外旅游研究演变特征,研究发现,国内外研究领域演变存在差异性,即国外研究领域演变特征主要表现为“四降四升”,国内则表现为“三降四升”的特征;而研究区域和研究方法的演变特征存在相似性：国内外旅游研究区域均表现为“沙漏型”演变规律,即从全球性的研究缩减到对单个区域的案例研究再扩展到跨区域性/全球性的研究;在研究方法上,国内外采用描述性的定性研究方法呈下降趋势,而采用数理统计和构造模型等定量研究方法呈上升趋势。最后,从研究领域、研究区域、研究方法以及研究挑战4 个方面展望国内旅游研究未来发展趋势。     

阿拉伯板块古生代岩相古地理及其对油气富集的控制作用

中东阿拉伯板块自寒武纪以来为一个构造相对稳定的块体, 油气储量占全球重要地位。近年来, 深部古生界储层成为油气勘探新发现的主要层系。本文通过调研中东区域地质、含油气盆地地质资料, 结合油气藏层位及分布特征, 编制阿拉伯板块寒武纪、奥陶纪、志留纪、泥盆纪、早二叠世、晚二叠世等6个地质时期的岩相古地理图, 并分析对油气富集特征的控制作用。研究结果表明: (1)寒武纪-志留纪, 阿拉伯板块整体以陆相-浅海相沉积环境为主, 早志留世的快速海侵形成热页岩, 为古生界油气生成提供了雄厚的物质基础; (2)泥盆纪-石炭纪, 海西构造事件造成抬升剥蚀, 使志留纪烃源岩能够发生垂向/侧向运移至二叠系储层; (3)早二叠世以碎屑岩沉积为主, 晚二叠世为海相和局限海沉积环境, 形成了以碳酸盐岩储层和蒸发盐岩盖层为主的优质储盖组合; (4)已发现油气藏主要分布在寒武系-志留系陆相碎屑岩、下二叠统陆相-海陆过渡相碎屑岩和碳酸盐岩以及上二叠统海相碳酸盐岩储层中, 上二叠统碳酸盐岩为最重要的储层, 志留系热页岩广泛分布、基底继承性构造和前寒武系盐穹隆为古生界油气运聚提供了有利条件。

     

r透射法在土壤水测量中的精度控制

本文对利用 r 透射法在土壤水动态研究中测定含水量的精度控制问题进行了分析,并根据间接测量的误差传播原理,得出了为达到一定测量精度σ(Δθ)所需最低透射强度 I。的计算式,为土壤水动态试验研究中合理选定放射源强度提供了依据。     

地震科普宣传文艺演出形式的讨论

问题的提出开展地震科普宣传,是地方地震工作部门的主要任务之一。通过几年来的实践,宣传工作的社会效益是显著的,而这却是一项面广量大的社会工作。地震宣传工作的重点,应当放在城镇,但不可忽视人口相对集中的乡、镇。如江苏省的某些乡、镇,人口有数万,工厂有数百家,产值几亿元。某些县、乡、村的企业,职工人数超过千人。对于这样的县、乡、镇,同样应是地震宣传工作的重点地区。因此,各地应从实际出发,也就是说,地震宣传工作重点的确定,应以人口密集程度、经济发达情况、震时     

神经网络方法在地震预报研究中的初步应用

本文把神经网络方法引进地震预报研究当中。使用地震频次，最大震级，平均震级，等价地震次数等多项地震活动性指标作为神经网络的输入，未来时段内的最大地震震级作为其输出，可以对某一固定地区的最大地震震级作出中近期预报。选用的神经网络模型为含两个中间层的前向模型，并采用ＢＰ算法。所得结果表明，用神经网络方法可以在一定精度范围内使震级预报的内检符合率达到１００％，在本文的例子中，外推预报准确率达到６０％以上。     

气压效率与出水层埋深关系初探

气压效率值 bp,是在深井水位观测中,气压每升降1毫巴所引起的井水位的变化。静水柱增加10米,压强增大1巴。即1000厘米/1000毫巴=10毫米/毫巴这是理论值,实际观测中,b_p 一般小于10毫米/毫巴。井水位与气压是反相关的。影响 b_p 的因素很多,本文拟就 b_p 的大小与出水层深度的关系,作一些探讨。     

宁波市土地利用动态监测试验

本文记述了采用TM和SPOT影象数据融合进行的宁波市土地动态监测试验过程，通过对遥感图像的处理、分析和解释来提取土地利用分类变化信息，及对监测精度的比较分析和得出的结论建议的论述。