九龙江河口区三维盐度数值计算及分析

本文利用ECOMSED模式建立了一个九龙江河口区水动力及盐度的三维数值模型.利用ECOMSED中的物质输运模块,模拟了九龙江河口区的盐度随着潮流运动的变化过程;模型采用河口区丰水期实测水文资料进行验证,计算和分析了河口区水平以及垂直断面的盐度分布情况,分析表明,河口区的盐度分布受潮流运动及九龙江淡水共同作用,有明显的潮周期特征,落潮时在河口区表层以九龙江淡水为主,外海高盐水占据底层区域;而在涨潮时垂向混合较强,表底分层不明显.     

一、二维耦合模式在“胶莱运河”中的应用

运用一、二维耦合模型,考虑季节性风生海流和潮流的作用,对开凿胶莱运河改善渤海水质的效果进行了初步研究.以海水半交换周期和运河的净流量为衡量的主要指标,进行四种运河规模的模拟实验,评估各种开渠规模治污的效益.模拟结果显示,开凿运河后,运河的流向随潮汐过程变化,但能够形成少量由胶州湾向莱州湾的净流量,通过运河的年净流量与运河规模成正比,为渤海海峡年过水量的1‰-2.5‰.运河规模达到5000m(宽)×20m(深),海水半交换周期仅缩短3%.因此,开凿胶莱运河改善渤海水质的效果不明显,渤海污染治理的关键应该是污染源头控制和管理.     

模糊线性优化在厦门湾水体总磷环境容量计算中的应用

在应用POM模型进行厦门湾水动力、污染物扩散和各排污口响应系数场模拟研究的基础上,采用最优化法对厦门湾水体总磷环境容量进行计算.根据厦门湾海区特征和使用功能,将厦门湾划分成5个海区,分别在5个海区选取水质控制点.分别以各海区水质控制点总磷浓度作为约束条件,运用普通优化和模糊优化对厦门湾内22个排污口源强进行优化设计.分析结果表明,基于模糊线性优化方法进行排污口源强优化设计和环境容量计算可以实现排污口源强再分配,且能够更充分地利用厦门湾的纳污能力.     

Numerical modeling of hydrodynamic changes due to coastal reclamation projects in Xiamen Bay, China

Xiamen Bay in South China has experienced extensive coastal exploitation since the 1950s,resulting in some severe environmental problems.Local authorities now have completed or are implementing many environmental restoration projects.Evaluating the cumulative impact of exploitation and restoration activities on the environment is a complicated multi-disciplinary problem.However,hydrodynamic changes in the bay caused by such coastal projects can be characterized directly and definitively through numerical modeling.This paper assesses the cumulative effect of coastal projects on the hydrodynamic setting using a high-resolution numerical modeling method that makes use of tidal current speeds and the tidal prism as two hydrodynamic indices.Changes in tidal velocity and the characteristics of the tidal prism show that hydrodynamic conditions have declined from 1938 to 2007 in the full-tide area.The tidal current speed and tidal prism have decreased by 40% in the western part of the bay and 20% in the eastern part of the bay.Because of the linear relationship between tidal prism and area,the degraded hydrodynamic conditions are anticipated to be restored to 1972 levels following the completion of current and proposed restoration projects,i.e.33% and 15% decrease in the hydrodynamic conditions of 1938 for the western and eastern parts of the bay,respectively.The results indicate that hydrodynamic conditions can be restored to some extent with the implementation of a sustainable coastal development plan,although a full reversal of conditions is not possible.To fully assess the environmental changes in a region,more indices,e.g.,water quality and ecosystem parameters,should be considered in future evaluations.     

基于Stacking机器学习模型的南海北部海温预报

基于Stacking(ET-ET)的机器学习算法,利用美国国家环境预报中心再分析数据和MGDSST海温融合数据,建立了一套高效的海温长期预报方法,并在南海北部海域开展了1 a的表层海温长期预报实验。结果表明：基于Stacking(ET-ET)机器学习模型的表层海温长期预报的均方根误差降至0.52℃,平均绝对百分比误差降至1.58%,明显优于基于支持向量机、人工神经网络和长短期记忆模型的预报结果。     

厦门港潮汐、风暴潮耦合模型

建立一个适合台湾海峡及小港湾,特别是能够反映小港湾的漫滩及潮汐、风暴潮耦合效应的数值模型,对小港湾风暴潮进行数值预报,有重要的社会和经济意义.文中以厦门港作为小港湾研究区域,在漫滩、风暴潮的耦合、开边界条件等方面对小港湾风暴潮数值计算作了一定的尝试,提出了一种能够模拟小港湾台风增水,潮位和流场变化情况的途径.