区域创新集群发展的关键要素及作用机制研究——以日本创新集群为例

在分析创新集群的构成与创新机制的基础上,从外部环境、构成主体等4个方面讨论了创新集群与产业集群的区别。以日本创新集群发展为例,分析创新集群的关键创新要素及作用机制,研究发现:在知识经济和经济区域化发展背景下,区域创新集群已成为促进区域产业升级与提升竞争力的核心力量;在创新集群发展中,领先企业的创新主导与示范作用突出,但又通过技术权力以技术锁定、标准控制等各种不同方式实施技术控制,影响中小型企业及其他研发机构发挥创新作用;在技术传播中,技术扩散、技术转移、技术溢出同时存在,在不同主体、不同阶段、不同空间尺度之间的途径与作用效果不同,畅通的技术通道保证了创新的共创共享;社会网络以社会文化、制度基础保障了各成员主体间经济学意义上最经济的创新合作与交流;创新平台构建了多要素、多功能、多层次的创新系统,体现了创新集群的整体创新优势。此外,行业协会也是创新集群形成与发展的重要基础。     

长三角装备制造业产学研创新网络体系的演化分析

利用国家重点产业专利信息服务平台,对长三角装备制造业联合申请发明专利数据进行检索,绘制了长三角地区企业、厂、公司与高校、科研机构之间的产学研创新网络,从节点、部类、城市、区域等4个层面,采用中心度、网络密度等网络结构指标,对1985~2010年长三角装备制造业产学研创新网络的结构及空间特征进行分析。研究发现,长三角装备制造业产学研创新网络的演化具有明显的阶段性特征,中心度较高的成员多为高校,区域内各城市的产学研空间分异特征明显,地理邻近、行政邻近及知识规模邻近是影响行为主体建立创新合作联系重要的因素,网络建构处于初级阶段。     

Relationship between Arctic sea ice thickness distribution and climate of China

Based on the simulated ice thickness data from 1949 to 1999,monthly mean temperature data from 160 stations,and monthly mean 1 × 1 precipitation data reconstructed from 749 stations in China from 1951 to 2000,the relationship between the Arctic sea ice thickness distribution and the climate of China is analyzed by using the singular value decomposition method.Climate patterns of temperature and precipitation are obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis.The results are as follows.(1) Sea ice in Arctic Ocean has a decreasing trend as a whole,and varies with two major periods of 12-14 and 16-20 yr,respectively.(2) When sea ice is thicker in central Arctic Ocean and Beaufort-Chukchi Seas,thinner in Barents-Kara Seas and Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea,precipitation is less in southern China,Tibetan Plateau,and the north part of northeastern China than normal,and vice versa.(3) When sea ice is thinner in the whole Arctic seas,precipitation is less over the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River and north part of northeastern China,more in Tibetan Plateau and south part of northeastern China than normal,and the reverse is also true.(4) When sea ice is thinner in central Arctic Ocean,East Siberian Sea,Beaufort-Chukchi Seas,and Greenland Sea;and thicker in Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea,air temperature is higher in northeastern China,southern Tibetan Plateau,and Hainan Island than normal.(5) When sea ice is thicker in East Siberian Sea 5 months earlier,thinner in Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea 7-15 months earlier,air temperature is lower over the north of Tibetan Plateau and higher in the north part of northwestern China than normal,and a reverse correlation also exists.     

利用温度盐度值估算流向

台湾海峡是一个平均水深大约在七、八十米以内的狭长海峡。外有黑潮水、南海水入侵;内多为入海径流和闽、浙、粤沿岸水影响,且终年为盛行东北—西南季风的海域。水文要素分布,具有明显的季节变化;冬季海水几呈垂直均匀状态;夏季则出现层化现象。对这样多种水系交汇复杂的海区,要进行温度、盐度质量场的分析研究,在缺乏实测流场资料的情况下,显得十分困难。因此,本文从湍流扩散方程出发,采用有限差分法,对台湾海峡局部海区—闽南渔场的温度,盐度值进行了初步分析。目的在于进一步了解本海区水文要素分布特点及其流系的变化规律,同时,更重要的是,寻找一种计算流向的方法。文章通过温度、盐度值,估算了湍流扩散系数K_H与东向平均速度分量U的比值K_H/U。且在计算出K_H/U的同时,还估算了水平平均流场的流向。这对于没有实测流场资料的海区,给出其流场的平     

论技术扩散的影响因子

借助全球技术转移资料,特别是张江高科技园区实地调查资料,本文分析了技术在空间上的移动过程。笔者指出,只有同时具备较高的技术势能、与技术合作伙伴之间较短的距离、便捷的通道等三方面的条件,技术扩散才能顺利地进行。同时,不同因子对不同尺度技术扩散过程的影响各不相同。在宏观尺度上,与创新源区位势相差不大、技术通道外环境类似的区域将最先进行技术扩散,而距离对宏观尺度上的技术扩散影响不大;在微观尺度上,受规模效应、集聚效应的影响,技术势能对技术扩散的影响不大,而距离、技术通道内环境对技术扩散发挥着决定性作用。上海张江高科技园区技术势能较高,位于全球技术扩散通道上,具备临近美、欧、日等世界技术创新源的空间优势,“聚焦张江”战略改善了技术通道,使张江接受海外技术扩散的能力、自身从事技术创新的能力、向国内其他地区进行技术二次扩散的能力大大提高,但张江高科技园区内部也还存在着垂直联系多、水平联系少等问题,技术扩散通道建设任重道远。     

EFFECTS OF PACIFIC SSTA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA, PART Ⅰ: OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

With the methods of REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function), the summer precipitation from 43 stations over eastern China for the 1901 - 2000 period was examined. The results show that South China and Southwest China, the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River, North China and the southwestern of Northeast China are the three main areas of summer rainfall anomaly. Furthermore, correlation analysis is used in three time series of three mostly summer rainfall modes and four seasonal Pacific SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly), and the results suggest that the Pacific SSTA which notably causes the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China are the SSTA of the preceding winter over Kuroshio region of Northwest Pacific, SSTA of the preceding spring in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and SSTA of the current summer in the central region of middle latitude. The relationship between summer precipitation over eastern China and SSTA of Pacific key regions was further verified by SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) analysis.The composite analysis was used to analyze the features of atmospheric general circulation in the years of positive and negative precipitation anomaly. Its results were used to serve as the base of numerical simulation analysis.     

春季北大西洋三极型海温异常变化及其与NAO和ENSO的联系

利用1951—2016年HadISST逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及1958—2016年美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,WHOI)提供的OAFlux数据集,运用经验正交函数分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和偏相关分析等统计方法,研究了春季北大西洋海温异常的主要特征及其与春季NAO和前期冬季ENSO联系。结果表明:春季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是自北而南出现的三极结构的海温距平型,其方差贡献率为35.7%。春季北大西洋三极型海温异常的形成主要受到春季NAO主导作用,还受到前期冬季热带中东太平洋海温异常的影响。消除前期冬季Niňo3.4的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与同期北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)指数的偏相关系数分别为0.50,通过了99%置信度水平的显著性检验。消除春季NAO的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与前期冬季Niňo3.4指数的偏相关系数为-0.26,通过了95%信度水平的显著性检验。春季NAO正(负)位相引起的海表风场和海表湍流热通量的异常,进而激发出正(负)位相的北大西洋三极型海温异常。前期冬季ENSO事件可以引起春季大气环流异常和热带外海温异常,进而调制春季NAO对北大西洋三极型海温异常的影响。     

近30多年中国东北地区春季寒潮的年代际变化及其可能原因

利用1979~2011年中国东北地区119站气温观测数据,对东北春季寒潮的年代际变化特征进行了分析,并在此基础上通过分析大气环流及北极海冰的变化,对寒潮年代际变化的可能原因进行了探讨。结果表明,东北地区春季寒潮的频次及强度在20世纪80年代末和21世纪初均有明显年代际转折,即20世纪90年代寒潮频次减少而强度增加,21世纪初寒潮频次有所回升但强度减弱。北极新地岛地区海冰的变化可能是造成我国东北地区寒潮活动年代际变化的原因之一。20世纪90年代新地岛附近海冰迅速减少,地表温度明显升高,而高纬海平面气压偏低,此处冷空气不易南下,同时东亚大槽偏强,冷空气强度增加。21世纪初该区海冰减少趋势减缓,冷空气频次有所回升,强度减弱。     

黑色还是绿色？低碳经济目标下的中国经济增长方式

Achieving dual goals of economic growth and carbon emission reduction is a major issue in China. In this paper we define three economic growth patterns (green growth, brown growth and black growth) according to the relationship between economic scale and carbon emissions, and then trace the historical trajectory of economic growth over the last 40 years. Granger causality is used to test China’s economic growth and carbon emission linkage. We argue that green growth means that the rate of carbon emission reduction is faster than the increase in GDP. When carbon intensity reduction is slower than GDP growth, brown growth occurs. Black growth occurs when both carbon intensity and economic scale increase. For China, we denote the four periods of black growth (1971–1977), brown growth (1978–2001), black growth (2002–2004), and brown growth (2004–2010). Granger causality tests indicate that mutual causality between carbon emissions and economic growth exists in the short term, but not the long term. In order to achieve the goals of economic growth and carbon intensity reduction, it is necessary for China to actively participate in global carbon reduction activities, technological innovation and ecological civilization construction.     

热带太平洋外海气耦合作用对东亚夏季风年代际变化的可能影响

利用1950—2000年逐月观测的热带太平洋海表温度分别驱动NCAR CCM3全球大气环流模式以及该模式耦合SOM(Slab Ocean Model)混合层海洋模式进行长时间积分试验,将两组试验结果相减来研究热带太平洋外海气耦合作用对20世纪70年代中后期东亚夏季风年代际变化的可能影响.模拟结果表明:热带太平洋外的海气耦合作用使得孟加拉湾、南海附近存在反气旋环流异常,导致我国东部存在偏南风异常,从而引起东亚夏季风年代际增强.其中热带印度洋的年代际增暖对东亚夏季风年代际增强有一定影响.