Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Nio indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST,over the period of January 1982 to October 2003,the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI),Nio1+2,Nio3.4,Nio3,and Nio4 indices with time lags of 10,3,6,5,and 6 months,respectively.Thus,a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1-12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated,using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992.The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1-12 months.The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1-12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent.The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years,in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years.We designed the two forecast models:one using both DMI and Nio indices and the other using only Nio indices without DMI,and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases.The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas.By turning off the DMI,the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS,suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area.The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI,while using both of Nio indices and DMI,the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months,suggesting that the Nio indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS.Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1-12 month lead time (the persisted prediction).Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction,especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months).The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy,i.e.,the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas,when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level.For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts,the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2.The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1-12 month lead time are also examined.     

基于卫星高度计的全球大洋潮汐模式的准确度评估

依据152个深海验潮站与大洋岛屿地面验潮站观测得到的8个主要分潮(M2、S2、K1、O1、N2、K2、P1及Q1)调和常数,对现有7个全球大洋潮汐模式的准确度进行了检验,结果显示各模式在深海大洋区域均达到了比较高的准确度:M2分潮的潮高均方根偏差在1.0～1.3cm之间;8个分潮的和方根偏差在2.1～2.3cm之间,与早期的模式相比,准确度又有了进一步提高。还依据中国近海18个岛屿的调和常数对其中的5个大洋潮汐模式的准确度进行了检验,结果表明,M2分潮均方根偏差在4.4～10cm,明显高于大洋的均方根偏差。其中日本国家天文台的潮汐模式NAO99在中国近海的结果相对较准确。     

Numerical Simulation of Wintertime Mesoscale Eddies in the East China Sea

INTRODUCTIONAnimportantachievementofoceanographysincethe 1960swasthediscoveryofmesoscaleed dieswithspatialscaleofhundredsofmeters,andtimescaleofhours;andaverageflowvelocityofabout 10cm s.Theenormousenergyofthemesoscaleeddyiscomparabletothatofacycloneoran ticycloneintheatmosphere .Themesoscaleeddyisoneoftheimportantfactorsthatdecidethechangeoftheocean .Intherecentdecades,ChineseandforeignscientistshavedonelotsofworkontheEastChinaSeasmesoscaleeddies,theformationmechanismofwhicharethefocuso…     

泰国湾及邻近海域潮汐潮流的数值模拟

本文基于FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model)模式,模拟了泰国湾及其周边海域K1、O1、M2和S2四个主要分潮。采用47个验潮站实测调和常数与模拟结果进行比较,所得4个分潮的均方差分别为4.06cm、3.76cm、8.22cm和4.71cm,符合良好。根据计算结果分析了泰国湾及其周边海域的潮汐、潮流的分布特征和潮波的传播特征。数值试验表明,现有的数字水深资料(ETOPO1,ETOPO5,DBDB-V)的准确度不足以合理地模拟泰国湾潮波。     

ADI BAROTROPIC OCEAN MODEL FOR SIMULATON OF KUROSHIO INTRUSION INTO CHINA SOUTHEASTERN WATERS

In this numerical model for simulating the Kuroshio intrusion into the East and South China Seas,vertically averaged marine hydrodynamic equations governing ocean currents and long-period waves areapproximated by a set of two-time-level semi-implicit finite difference equations. The major terms in-cluding the local acceleration, sea-surface slope, Coriolis force and the bottom friction are approxi-mated with the Crank-Nicholson scheme, which is of second order accuracy. The advection terms are app-roximated with the Leith scheme. The difference equations are split into two sets of alternating directionimplicit quations, each of which has a tridiagonal matrix and can be easily solved. The model reproduces a major Kuroshio intrusion north of Luzon Island, one north of Taiwan Island, andone west of the Tokara Strait. The model shows a current system running from the Luzon Strait to the coastof Vietnam and Hainan Island, through the Taiwan Strait and then into the Tsushima Strait. The summerand winter monso     

印度尼西亚近海潮汐潮流的数值模拟

利用FVCOM海洋数值模式计算了印尼近海的M2,S2,K1,O1分潮的分布,计算范围从20°S～20°N,90°～150°E,计算网格分辨率在印尼海域岛屿平均为1/12度,在大陆边界平均为1/5度,在开边界平均为1/2度.计算结果与104个TOPEX/Poseidon卫星高度计交叉点数据和79个验潮站数据进行比较,符合良好;与高度计交叉点比较,M2分潮振幅的均方根差为6 cm,迟角为7°;S2分潮的振幅偏差为3 cm,迟角偏差为8°;K1分潮振幅的偏差为6 cm,迟角偏差为10°;O1分潮振幅偏差为3 cm,迟角偏差为10°.根据计算结果给出了4个分潮的潮汐、潮流、潮余流和潮能通量密度分布图.     

洋际交换及其在全球大洋环流中的作用:MOM4p1积分1400年的结果

利用非Boussinesq近似下MOM4p1的全球大洋环流预后模式,采用真实地形,以静止状态为初始条件,进行了1 400a积分,以研究平衡状态下大洋环流的结构。模式由月平均气候态强迫场驱动,包括192×189个水平网格和压力坐标下的31个垂直层次。着重研究达到平衡状态后,各洋际通道处的质量、热量输运和补偿及其在全球大洋环流中的作用。根据动能演变特征表明,积分过程分为3个阶段:风海流的成长及准稳定状态;热盐环流的成长过程以及热盐环流的稳定状态;由静止状态冷启动达到热盐环流的稳定状态,积分过程必须在千年以上。模式结果再现了从白令海峡到格陵兰海的北冰洋贯穿流和印度尼西亚贯穿流,并用已有观测资料对它们进行对比。分析表明,海面的倾斜结构是形成太平洋-北冰洋-大西洋贯穿流和印尼贯穿流的主要动力机制。分析指出,尽管在北大西洋存在1.4×106 m3/s的南向体积输运,但其热量输运却是北向的并达到1015 W量级,其原因是北向的上层海流温度远高于北大西洋深层水向南的回流。文章分析了经向体积和热量输运对北大西洋深层水补偿来源及大西洋经向翻转环流的贡献。模拟所得洋际交换的量值可以由经向补偿予以合理解释,并得到以往实测与数模结果的支持。洋际通道处的体积和热量交换突出体现了其在大洋传送带系统中的枢纽作用。     

黄河口及其邻近海域水深和岸线变化对M2分潮影响的数值研究

黄河口及其邻近海域水深和岸线的演化显著地影响着该海区的潮波系统。本研究收集到了1972年及2002年水深及岸线数据。在此基础上,基于ROMS模式建立了渤海海域潮波数值模式,模式采用正交曲线坐标,在黄河口及其邻近海域水平分辨率优于500m,其它海域水平分辨率优于2km。模式首先模拟了2002年M2分潮潮波状况,并利用实测资料进行了检验,在此基础上进一步模拟了1972年M2分潮潮波状况。对比分析表明1972—2002年黄河口外M2分潮无潮点向东北方向迁移约30km;期间莱州湾西侧M2分潮振幅明显增强;莱州湾M2分潮迟角呈现由前进波向退化的旋转潮波系统转变的趋势。     

渤、黄、东海垂向位移负荷潮和自吸-负荷潮

采用Green函数方法,高分辨率中国近海区域海潮模型和TOPO7.0全球海洋潮汐模型,以及Gutenberg-BullenA地球模型计算了负荷潮.结果表明,渤、黄、东海M2垂向位移负荷潮振幅最大值出现在浙江外海约150km处,其值超过28mm;次大值位于仁川湾,超过20mm;第三大值位于北黄海东北部,超过14mm.S2垂向位移负荷潮在上述三处的振幅值分别超过10,8和4mm.K1和O1垂向位移负荷潮振幅在琉球群岛中北部附近为最大,分别超过13和10mm:向内海逐渐减小.半日分潮垂向位移负荷潮基本上与海洋潮汐对应分潮具有相反的位相.在东海大部和南黄海东部全日分潮垂向位移负荷潮与对应的海潮分潮基本上具有反位相的关系,而在渤、黄海其余海域基本上不具有反位相关系.在研究海区内,全日潮的垂向位移负荷潮不出现无潮点.自吸-负荷平衡潮分布特征与垂向位移负荷潮相近,其振幅大约是垂向位移负荷潮的1.2~1.7倍,其位相与垂向位移负荷潮基本上相反.M2最大振幅值也出现在浙江外海,超过42mm.     

Interbasin freshwater,heat and salt transport through the boundaries of the East and South China Seas from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

It has long been recognized that the circulation in the East China Sea (ECS) and Japan/East Sea (JES) is closely related with that in Pacific, especially with the Kuroshio (e.g., Nitani[1], Hi-daka[2]). Based on current measurements in the Taiwan Strait a…