渤、黄、东海潮汐的一种验潮站资料同化数值模式

以往的研究表明,采用直接的数值计算所得渤、黄、东海潮汐分布与实测值存在一定偏差。为了改善数值计算结果,建立了一种同化数值模式。计算中,在连续方程中增加了一个松弛项,将模式结果向已有实测调和常数的控制点推算潮高值趋近。在数值模拟中,共选取40个沿岸和岛屿验潮站作为控制点,另外选取71个验潮站作为检验点。数值实验表明,随着松弛系数的增加,控制点的计算和实测调和常数之差逐渐减小,直至松弛系数太大时,计算溢出。与此同时,检验点的计算和实测调和常数之偏差开始时也同步地明显减小,但当松弛系数加大到一定数值后,偏差值基本上不再减小,表明通过松弛同化可以改善计算结果,但计算与实测的逼近程度仍有一定限度。对沿岸111个验潮站计算值与实测值的比较表明,对M2分潮,振幅和迟角偏差分别从同化前的6.9cm和5.6°减小至同化后的3.5cm和3.1°;对S2分潮,从2.5cm和6.5°减小至1.9cm和4.0°;对K1分潮,从3.0cm和7.8°减小至1.4cm和4.1°;对O1分潮,从2.0cm和7.5°减小至1.3cm和4.2°。     

渤、黄、东海潮汐的相对导纳及N2,K2,P1和Q1分潮的经验同潮图

利用113个沿岸和岛屿长期验潮站的调和常数,计算了研究海区S2对M2,N2对M2,K2对S2,O1对K1,P1对K1和Q1对O1分潮的相对导纳分布.结果表明,各相对导纳的模数在琉球群岛附近接近于1,且随着潮波向内海传播逐渐减小,亦即较小的分潮衰减较显著;相对导纳的幅角逐渐增加(若分潮对的角速度差为正)或逐渐减小(若分潮...     

南海及邻近海峡垂向位移负荷潮和自吸?负荷潮

本文采用Green函数方法,基于高分辨率南海海潮模型、DTU10全球海洋潮汐模型以及Gutenberg-Bullen A地球模型计算了南海及邻近海峡的负荷潮。结果表明,M₂垂向位移负荷潮振幅最大值出现在台湾海峡,其值超过18 mm;另一个极大值区出现在加里曼丹岛西北外海,其值超过14 mm。K₁和O₁垂向位移负荷潮振幅在南海南部最大,分别超过18 mm和14 mm;另一个极大值区出现在北部湾,振幅超过8 mm。在研究海区内,全日潮的垂向位移负荷潮不出现无潮点。自吸?负荷潮分布特征与垂向位移负荷潮相近,其振幅大约是垂向位移负荷潮的1.2～1.7倍,其位相与垂向位移负荷潮基本上相反。M₂自吸?负荷潮最大振幅值也出现台湾海峡和加里曼丹岛西北外海,其值分别超过24 mm和18 mm。     

《海洋通报》创刊30周年致辞

热烈祝贺《海洋通报》创刊30周年!值此《海洋通报》创刊30周年之际,我仅以现任编委会主编的名义表示最热烈的祝贺!作为一份以海洋科技为特色的学术刊物,《海洋通报》随着我国海洋事业的发展而不断进步。三十年来,由于专家学者的大力支持,读者作者的信任和期盼,编辑部全体工作人员的共同努力,《海洋通报》已成为海洋科学领域内颇具影响力的重要综合性学术期刊,为促进我     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Niño indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST, over the period of January 1982 to October 2003, the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Niño1+2, Niño3.4, Niño3, and Niño4 indices with time lags of 10, 3, 6, 5, and 6 months, respectively. Thus, a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1–12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated, using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992. The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1–12 months. The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1–12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent. The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years, in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years. We designed the two forecast models: one using both DMI and Niño indices and the other using only Niño indices without DMI, and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases. The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas. By turning off the DMI, the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS, suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area. The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI, while using both of Niño indices and DMI, the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months, suggesting that the Niño indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS. Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1–12 month lead time (the persisted prediction). Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction, especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months). The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy, i.e., the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas, when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level. For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts, the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2. The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1–12 month lead time are also examined.     

渤海、黄海、东海M2潮汐潮流的三维数值模拟

利用建立的一种新的半隐半显三维数值格式,将渤海、黄海、东海作为一个整体,采用球面坐标系下的三维潮波方程组,考虑了引潮力的作用,数值模拟了渤海、黄海、东海的M₂分潮的潮汐与潮流,结果较好地体现了渤海、黄海、东海M₂分潮的特征.通过比较65个验潮站的实测值与计算值,所得计算结果的振幅差平均为6.4cm,相角差为6.1°,计算与实测符合良好.本文给出的问潮图与Fang于1986年给出的实测占数值综合结果基本一致.对选取的47个测流站,比较了各层潮流调和常数Ucosζ、Usinζ、Vcosη、Vsinη的计算值与实测值的偏差,偏差绝对值的平均在2.6～4.9cm/s之间.并比较分析了潮流的垂直结构,所得结果与实测符合较好.首次揭示出回流点的水平位置不随深度变化这一特性.最后给出了M₂分潮的潮能消耗.     

A LAYERED NUMERICAL MODEL FOR SIMULATING THE GENERATION AND PROPAGAYION OF INTERNAL TIDES OVER CONTINENTAL SLOPE Ⅰ.MODEL DESIGN

mODUCnONSinceRattw(lwn)develoPedthefirstthcoreticalm0dl0ninternaltides,Inandifferentmodlshavebeenpresented.Theearlym0dlssuchastheonescreatedbyCoxandSandstorm(l962),Baines(l973,l982),etal.wereInainlylinear.Itwasnottmtilthe1980'sthatmodelsforstUdvingthenonlinearclertersofintemaltidesbegant0bedeveloPed.ThempicaloneswerethoseProposedorusedbyPinpeeetal.(1984),Maze(l987),WllmottandEdnds(l987),~(l994),andGerkema(l996).klthoughthesemodlscontribuegnailytoourundrstandingofthegenerationandproPag…     

A VERTICAL COORDINATE TRANSFORMATION FOR 3-D NUMERICAL MODELLING OF OCEAN CIRCULATION

A so called sine-sigma vertical coordinate transformation is proposed. A vertical implicit scheme is de-rived by using cubic-spline representation of vertical current profiles. The derived 3-D nurmericalmodel has been applied to simulate the water leved field and the vertical structures of wind-induced cur-rents in an enclosed rectangular region, and the tides in the Bohai Sea. The model is believed to besatisfactory after comparing its results with an analytical soclution and observed data from tidal staions.