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为了建立南方双季稻低温灾害综合预测预警技术体系, 基于南方双季稻种植区1961—2010年708个气象站的逐日气象资料、水稻生育期资料和低温灾害发生的气象行业标准,采用Fisher判别分析法、因子膨化法、相关性分析法,利用SPSS软件构建早稻春季低温灾害高风险区 (Ⅰ区) 未来10 d、晚稻寒露风高风险区 (Ⅰ区)、主灾区 (Ⅱ区) 未来5 d的低温灾害发生等级逐日滚动预警模型。其中,1961—2009年资料用于模型构建和回代检验,2010年资料用于模型的外延预测。结果表明:早稻、晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅰ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别达到90.5%,74.2%,80.3%,晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅱ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别为89.4%和80.3%。构建的南方双季稻低温灾害逐日滚动预警模型的外延预测基本一致准确率多超过80%,等级预测检验误差总体上在1个等级以内,模型评价效果较好。 相似文献
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分析了水位改正中隐含的基准面空间内插形式,理论推导了基准面空间内插的数学描述,表明水位改正中隐含的基准面空间内插方式与潮汐比较参数的内插方式相一致,基准面空间内插误差为基准面相对平均海面的垂直差距的空间内插误差。仿真实验对此进行了验证。现阶段减弱与控制该误差的最可行手段是,由L值模型仿真不同验潮站空间配置下基准面空间内插误差的空间分布,为验潮站布设设计提供先验信息。而未来建立以平均海面为基本海洋垂直基准的综合海洋垂直基准框架是最有效手段。海洋测量水深数据的处理和计算机存储都应保留以平均海面为基准面的成果,通过垂直基准转换方式可满足多用途需求。 相似文献
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An algorithm (differential mode) is presented for the improvement of harmonic tidal analysis along T/P tracks, in which the differences between the observed sea surface heights at adjacent points are taken as observations. Also, the observation equations are constrained with the results of the crossover analysis; the parameter estimations are performed at 0.1° latitude intervals by the least squares. Cycle 10 to 330 T/P altimeter data covering the China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean (2°-50°N,105°-150°E) are adopted for a refined along-track harmonic tidal analysis, and harmonic constants of 12 constituents in 8 474 points are obtained, which indicates that the algorithm can efficiently remove non-tidal effects in the altimeter observations, and improve the precision of tide parameters. Moreover, parameters along altimetry tracks represent a smoother distribution than those obtained by traditional algorithms. The root mean squares of the fitting errors between the tidal height model and the observations reduce from 11 cm to 1.3 cm. 相似文献
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