基于非对称Archimedean Copula的三变量风浪重现水平分析

采用非对称Archimedean Copula函数与Kendall分布函数分析极端波况下的波高、周期和风速三变量联合概率分布与风险率及其设计分位数,为海岸海洋工程设计和风险评估提供参考依据。以粤东汕尾海域的实测风浪数据为例,使用非对称Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数计算三变量风浪联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的风浪设计值。主要结论如下:对比不同设计风浪重现期显示,"或"重现期的风险率偏高,"且"重现期的风险率偏低,二次重现期更准确地反映了特定设计频率情况下三变量风浪的风险率;按目前有关规范设计要求的单变量风浪要素设计值已经达到安全标准,按三变量"或"重现期和三变量同频率设计值推算的风浪设计值偏高,以最大可能概率推算的三变量风浪要素的二次重现期设计值可为相关工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。     

1986–2019年粤东企望湾砂质海岸线演变过程与驱动机制研究

本文采用1986–2019年113景Landsat影像提取高潮线,辅以2015–2019年实测剖面数据,开展了海湾尺度上海岸线的中长期演变过程与驱动机制研究。结果表明：企望湾以中间小型基岩岬角为界划分出的西侧海滩和东侧海滩分别具备4种和3种不同的空间特征;超过一半的区域其海岸线演变表现为非线性行为;Mann-Kendall趋势检验和显著性分析方法较好地解决了已有研究中对研究时段划分缺乏依据的问题;近5年的实测剖面数据也验证了企望湾近期显著的淤积和侵蚀现象。进一步研究表明,自西向东的沿岸输沙过程是近期海岸线演变主要的驱动机制,东侧防波堤因为改变了控制性“岬角”的位置,造成了海湾平面形态不平衡,而中间小型基岩岬角也影响了企望湾侵蚀和淤积的空间差异性。研究结果对于预测未来岸线位置和控制岸线侵蚀风险具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Study on headland-bay sandy coast stability in South China coasts

Headland-bay beach equilibrium planform has been a crucial problem abroad to long-term sandy beach evolution and stabilization,extensively applied to forecast long-term coastal erosion evolvement and the influences of coastal engineering as well as long-term coastal management and protection.However,little concern focuses on this in China.The parabolic relationship is the most widely used empirical relationship for determining the static equilibrium shape of headland-bay beaches.This paper utilizes the relation to predict and classify 31 headland-bay beaches and concludes that these bays cannot achieve the ultimate static equilibrium planform in South China.The empirical bay equation can morphologically estimate beach stabilization state,but it is just a referential predictable means and is difficult to evaluate headland-bay shoreline movements in years and decades.By using Digital Shoreline Analysis System suggested by USGS,the rates of shoreline recession and accretion of these different headland-bay beaches are quantitatively calculated from 1990 to 2000.The conclusions of this paper include that (a) most of these 31 bays maintain relatively stable and the rates of erosion and accretion are relatively large with the impact of man-made constructions on estuarine within these bays from 1990 to 2000;(b) two bays,Haimen Bay and Hailingshan Bay,originally in the quasi-static equilibrium planform determined by the parabolic bay shape equation,have been unstable by the influence of coastal engineering;and (c) these 31 bays have different recession and accretion characters occurring in some bays and some segments.On the one hand,some bays totally exhibit accretion,but some bays show erosion on the whole.Shanwei Bay,Houmen Bay,Pinghai Bay and Yazhou Bay have the similar planforms,characterized by less accretion on the sheltering segment and bigger accretion on the transitional and tangential segments.On the other hand,different segments of some bays have two dissimilar evolvement characters.Dacheng Bay,Shenquan Bay,Hudong Bay,Wukan Bay,Fengjia Bay,Wuchang Bay,Lingshui Bay and Tufu Bay produce accretion on the tangential segment,erosion on the transitional segment and accretion on the sheltering segment.However,Guang’ao Bay,Haimen Bay,Jinghai Bay,Sanya Bay(a),Dajiao Bay,Hailingshan Bay,Hebei Bay,Fuhu Bay,Shuidong Bay,Wangcun Bay and Bomao Bay generate erosion on the tangential part,accretion on the transitional part and accretion on the sheltering part.It seems to imply some relations between headland-bay beach evolvement and controls on headland-bay beaches,which may possibly to classify headland-bay beach types and should be further studied.     

波控中等潮差海滩剖面时空变化过程研究

通过对一波控中等潮差海湾切线段 16个月海滩剖面数据,采用 EOF 分析提取了占数据总方差 91. 32 % 的前 3个空 间特征函数研究海滩剖面空间变化。结果发现第一空间特征函数指示了滩肩顶至碎波带海滩剖面变动逐渐增强的特征,是海 滩剖面变化的主要模式;第二空间特征函数指示了滩肩形成与消亡;第三空间特征函数指示了大潮高潮位的巨型滩角的存 在。通过对 EOF 分析得到的时间特征函数作连续功率谱分析,反映该海滩剖面波能在大小潮汐约半月潮周期、近塑望月潮 频率周期和大小潮汐约 2个月潮周期内对这些空间过程的控制,体现了这一波控中等潮差海岸近岸区,叠加在周期性潮汐之 上的波浪是海滩演变的主要动力因素,这在以前的研究中所忽略。