陶诗言先生在中国暴雨发生条件和机制研究中的贡献

作者在1998年庆贺陶诗言先生八十华诞的文集中曾专题阐述和评价了陶先生对中国暴雨研究的贡献。 至今十五年过去了,陶诗言先生虽已于2012年仙逝,但其深邃的科学思想依然闪烁着智慧的火花。他在中国暴雨研究中留下的宝贵遗产不但深刻影响过去和现代两代人的暴雨研究和业务发展,而且也将继续影响将来的中国暴雨研究。本文是对陶诗言先生在中国暴雨的研究中所作的贡献并结合现代研究的成果作进一步介绍和评价。主要集中在暴雨发生的动力和热力条件与机理方面。全文内容包括六个方面:（1）季节突变对中国梅雨爆发的影响;（2）暴雨发生的多尺度相互作用;（3）暖湿季风输送带对北方大暴雨的影响;（4）高空急流对暴雨的作用;（5）暴雨和强对流发生的物理条件;（6）地形对暴雨的作用     

梅雨期的环流结构

梅雨是初夏长江中下游地区的重要天气,它对生产建设有很大影响。本文通过对近几年的资料分析,试图从梅雨期大尺度环流结构和环流维持的原因,作一些粗浅的探讨。 一、梅雨期低层环流的结构 在梅雨期,沿长江中下游地区维持一条准静止雨带。在雨带附近,水平温度差甚小,近地面约1.5°C/100公里,850毫巴和700毫巴为1°C/100公里,这比冬季冷锋     

暴雨和强对流天气发生条件的比较分析

本文用运动学方法和ω方程计算了一些暴雨和强对流天气个例的物理场。并讨论了它们与暴雨和强对流天气发生的关系。最后给出了暴雨和强对流天气发生时的三维流场结构。     

1979年印度夏季风活跃、中断和撤退时期欧亚上空风场和温度场的变化

本文对1979年夏季印度西南季风活跃、中断和撤退时欧亚地区大范围环流和温度场进行了分析。结果表明,该年季风活动的变率与欧亚中高纬环流形势的演变有明显关系。季风活跃期,高空西风带显著北移,西藏高原上空有高空反气旋环流建立、发展,苏联西部阻塞高压发展、维持;季风中断期,西藏高原西部有高空槽存在;苏联西部阻塞高压减弱、崩溃或有高空槽发展;季风的撤退也与东亚冷空气活动关系密切。     

对称扰动与纬向基流的相互作用 I. 倾斜E-P通量理论

该文对对称扰动与纬向基流的相互作用理论进行了深入的研究。这里是该文的第一部分,将E-P通量理论引入到中尺度对称扰动的动力学模型中,重新定义E-P通量为“倾斜E-P通量”。采用“倾斜E-P通量”的新概念,详细讨论了影响平均基流的几个因子作用。特别在中尺度系统对动量、热量的垂直输送项改变影响环境风场、温度场方面进行了讨论。     

夏季亚洲极涡的长期变化对东亚环流和水汽收支的影响

主要分析了1951～2004年夏季亚洲极涡强度和面积的长期变化趋势及其对东亚夏季环流,水汽输送和降水量的影响,发现1951～2004年,夏季亚洲极涡表现出了明显的强度减弱,面积缩小的变化趋势,并以面积缩小更为显著,这正对应于北极涛动（AO）指数在该时段的显著升高.在这种北半球中高纬大尺度环流变化的影响下,东亚夏季高空西风急流在近54年显著南移,冷空气活动的南侵程度明显增强,从而造成低空偏北风显著增强而偏南风减弱.与此相应,近54年整个中国区域内低空纬向风速呈明显的减小趋势.总的来看,东亚夏季风环流发生了明显减弱.同时,流经中国的中纬度西风水汽输送在近54年也表现出一致减弱的趋势,而南风水汽输送大致以110°E为界,以东的夏季风区呈显著的减弱趋势而以西则有明显的增加趋势.这种水汽输送的变化影响了中国不同区域内水汽输送通量散度的改变,进而使得夏季降水量发生变化.分析表明,夏季亚洲极涡的面积和强度与东北、华北和西北东部的水汽输送通量散度和夏季降水呈正相关,而与长江中下游、华南、西南、青藏高原和西北西部呈显著负相关,夏季亚洲极涡在近几十年的面积缩小和强度减弱是中国夏季降水长期变化的一个可能原因.     

AN IMPROVED LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT——PART I:LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS“OFF-LINE”TESTS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSES

Based on the existing land-surface schemes and models,an improved Land-surface ProcessModel(LPM-ZD)has been developed.It has the following major characteristics:(1)Thecombination of physical equations and empirical analytical formulae are used to construct thegoverning equations of soil temperature and moisture.Higher resolution of model level andphysical equations are adopted for the upper soil layers,and for the lower soil layers,lowerresolution of model level is adopted and empirical analytical formulae are used.(2)In land surfacehydrological process,the sub-grid distribution of rainfall and its effects are taken into account.(3)A simple snow cover submodel has been used,which includes effects of snow cover on soilthermodynamics and hydrology,as well as albedo.By use of this model and three groups of point observation data,a series of“off-line”testshave been carried out.The simulation results indicate that land-surface process model has goodperformance and can well simulate diurnal and seasonal variation of land surface processes for manykinds of land surface covers(forest,grass,crops and desert)in different climate zone.The resultssimulated by the model are consistent with the observations.Later,by use of one group ofobservation data and the model,a series of sensitivity experiments have been done.It is shownthat the model is much sensitive to some parameters,such as initial soil moisture,vegetationphysical parameters as well as the proportion of the grid covered with rain.Therefore it is muchimportant for land-surface process model to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

江南南部初夏雨季的降水和环流气候特征

基于1961～2010年气象台站逐日降水资料、同期美国NCEP/NCAR的逐日再分析格点资料,通过气候平均、REOF分析、聚类分析等方法,分析了江南地区初夏降水的地域性和时段性特征,及西太平洋副高和高、低空急流等大气环流的相应演变过程。结果发现:（1）江南南部27.5°～29.5°N存在一个独立于华南前汛期和江淮梅雨的初夏雨季,该雨季平均发生时间为6月11～30日,比江淮梅雨早约8天左右。（2）西太平洋副高的西伸东退是江南南部初夏雨季发生发展的重要环流背景,6月第2候副高发生突变性加速西伸之后雨季开始,雨季期间850 hPa副高西伸脊点基本稳定在最西位置即133°E附近,6月第6候副高东退北抬后雨季结束。（3）低层急流大风带的形成和位置是江南南部初夏雨季阶段的重要动力条件,印度洋和孟加拉湾向东北延伸的低层急流与西太平洋副高西北侧的气流连通形成低层急流大风带,并与北侧上空的高空急流耦合,降水集中区位于低层急流大风带左侧、高空急流入口区右侧。     

ROLE OF A WARM AND WET TRANSPORT CONVEYOR OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON IN A BEIJING HEAVY RAINSTORM ON JULY 21, 2012

A heavy rainstorm named Beijing “7.21” heavy rainstorm hit Beijing on 21 to 22 July 2012, which is recorded as the most severe rainstorm since 1951. The daily precipitation amount in many stations in Beijing has broken the history record. Based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and precipitation observation,the large-scale conditions which caused the “7.21” heavy rainstorm are investigated, with the emphasis on the relationship between it and an equatorial convergence zone, Asian summer monsoon as well as the tropical cyclone over the ocean from the Philippines to the South China Sea (SCS). The results indicated that a great deal of southerly warm and wet moisture carried by northward migrating Asian summer monsoon provided plenty of moisture supplying for the “7.21” heavy rainstorm. When the warm and wet moisture met with the strong cold temperature advection induced by cold troughs or vortexes, an obviously unstable stratification formed, thus leading to the occurrence of heavy precipitation. Without this kind of intense moisture transport, the rainstorm only relying on the role of the cold air from mid- and higher- latitudes could not reach the record-breaking intensity. Further research suggested that the northward movement of an Asian monsoonal warm and wet moisture transport conveyor (MWWTC) was closely related with the active phase of a 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillation of the Asian summer monsoon. During this time, the monsoon surge triggered and maintained the northward movement of the MWWTC. In addition, compared with another heavy rainstorm named “63.8” heavy rainstorm, which occurred over the Huaihe River Basin in the mid-August 1963 and seriously affected North China, a similar MWWTC was also observed. It was just the intense interaction of the MWWTC with strong cold air from the north that caused this severe rain storm.     

国际气候变化研究新进展

 简要回顾了国际上气候变化科学研究在最近所取得的进展,主要包括近百年温度和降水的变化,大气成分和辐射强迫的变化,热带和中高纬度气候变化,台风和气候变化,全球变暗和反照率,气候模式与气候变化的预估,气候突变和极端事件等方面。通过回顾可以看到,气候变化科学已取得了显著的进展,但也提出一些新的科学问题,国内外科学家将面临新的科学挑战。