Global climate policy and deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries

If we are to limit global warming to 2 °C, all sectors in all countries must reduce their emissions of GHGs to zero not later than 2060–2080. Zero-emission options have been less explored and are less developed in the energy-intensive basic materials industries than in other sectors. Current climate policies have not yet motivated major efforts to decarbonize this sector, and it has been largely protected from climate policy due to the perceived risks of carbon leakage and a focus on short-term reduction targets to 2020. We argue that the future global climate policy regime must develop along three interlinked and strategic lines to facilitate a deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries. First, the principle of common but differentiated responsibility must be reinterpreted to allow for a dialogue on fairness and the right to development in relation to industry. Second, a greater focus on the development, deployment and transfer of technology in this sector is called for. Third, the potential conflicts between current free trade regimes and motivated industrial policies for deep decarbonization must be resolved. One way forward is to revisit the idea of sectoral approaches with a broader scope, including not only emission reductions, but recognizing the full complexity of low-carbon transitions in energy-intensive industries. A new approach could engage industrial stakeholders, support technology research, development and demonstration and facilitate deployment through reducing the risk for investors. The Paris Agreement allows the idea of sectoral approaches to be revisited in the interests of reaching our common climate goals.

Policy relevance

Deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries will be necessary to meet the 2 °C target. This requires major innovation efforts over a long period. Energy-intensive industries face unique challenges from both innovation and technical perspectives due to the large scale of facilities, the character of their global markets and the potentially high mitigation costs. This article addresses these challenges and discusses ways in which the global climate policy framework should be developed after the Paris Agreement to better support transformative change in the energy-intensive industries.     

Electron acceleration in solar flares

For the period September 1978 to December 1982 we have identified 55 solar flare particle events for which our instruments on board the ISEE-3 (ICE) spacecraft detected electrons above 10 MeV. Combining our data with those from the ULEWAT spectrometer (MPI Garching and University of Maryland) electron spectra in the range from 0.1 to 100 MeV were obtained. The observed spectral shapes can be divided into two classes. The spectra of the one class can be fit by a single power law in rigidity over the entire observed range. The spectra of the other class deviate from a power law, instead exhibiting a steepening at low rigidities and a flattening at high rigidities. Events with power-law spectra are associated with impulsive (<1 hr duration) soft X-ray emission, whereas events with hardening spectra are associated with long-duration (<1 hr) soft X-ray emission. The characteristics of long-duration events are consistent with diffusive shock acceleration taking place high in the corona. Electron spectra of short-duration flares are well reproduced by the distribution functions derived from a model assuming simultaneous second-order Fermi acceleration and Coulomb losses operating in closed flare loops.     

西北地区农业旱灾与预测研究

西北地区干旱灾害在中国乃至世界上具有代表性,常常对农业生产、社会经济和人民生活带来巨大威胁。利用西北五省区(陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆)1951～2000年的50年农业旱灾面积统计资料,分析了农业旱灾的时空强度变化。表明西北地区农业旱灾有增加趋势,以20世纪90年代增加最明显。利用西北地区均匀分布的40个站点50年的降水和气温资料,采用变换的Z指数法,探讨了干旱强度和地表径流量的时间变化与西北地区农业旱害的关系。表明降水量的减少及河川径流枯期与农业旱灾面积负相关关系密切。应用波谱分析与逐步自回归方法,分别建立了西北地区干旱指数的拟合回归预测模型,农业旱灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积预测模型,并对西北地区干旱灾害的趋势进行了预测。表明西北地区干旱灾害在21世纪前十年有所减缓。经检验,模型预测效果良好,根据预测结果可以采取有针对性的减灾措施,减少西北地区农业灾害损失。     

Deep massive sulphide exploration using 2D and 3D geoelectrical and induced polarization data in Skellefte mining district,northern Sweden

Geoelectrical and induced polarization data from measurements along three profiles and from one 3D survey are acquired and processed in the central Skellefte District, northern Sweden. The data were collected during two field campaigns in 2009 and 2010 in order to delineate the structures related to volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits and to model lithological contacts down to a maximum depth of 1.5 km. The 2009 data were inverted previously, and their joint interpretation with potential field data indicated several anomalous zones. The 2010 data not only provide additional information from greater depths compared with the 2009 data but also cover a larger surface area. Several high‐chargeability low‐resistivity zones, interpreted as possible massive sulphide mineralization and associated hydrothermal alteration, are revealed. The 3D survey data provide a detailed high‐resolution image of the top ～450 m of the upper crust around the Maurliden East, North, and Central deposits. Several anomalies are interpreted as new potential prospects in the Maurliden area, which are mainly concentrated in the central conductive zone. In addition, the contact relationship between the major geological units, e.g., the contact between the Skellefte Group and the Jörn Intrusive Complex, is better understood with the help of 2010 deep‐resistivity/chargeability data. The bottommost part of the Vargfors basin is imaged using the 2010 geoelectrical and induced polarization data down to ～1‐km depth.     

利用不对称的地下水位潮汐波动确定滨海含水层参数

在滨海地区,地下水水位受潮汐波动影响较大,使得传统的抽水试验、水位回复试验等方法确定含水层参数存在困难且花费较大。通过对广西北海市滨海含水层地下水位动态资料进行分析,发现其上升段和下降段是不对称的。基于海岸带承压含水层正弦潮汐波的传播理论,提出了确定含水层参数的分段法,并与振幅衰减法和滞后时间法进行对比,各种方法求出的储水系数与导水系数之比(S/T)很接近,说明分段法是有效的。对于北海市滨海含水层,上升段求出的S/T值比下降段要大,其成因机理还有待进一步分析。     

Automatic classification of dome instabilities based on Doppler radar measurements at Merapi volcano, Indonesia: Part I

Monitoring lava dome instabilities is crucial to efficiently monitor active dome building volcanoes. The Doppler radar technique provides a unique opportunity to gather information about the number of instability events occurring at the growing dome and about the dynamic processes that take place during different types of instabilities. So far, three different kinds of processes have been identified: sliding material, gravitational break-offs and explosive outbursts. In addition, Doppler radars provide rain measurements, which can be used to investigate possible correlations between rainfall and dome activity. Two radar systems have been installed at Merapi volcano in October 2001 and January 2005 to continuously monitor dome instabilities. Due to the large number of instability events that occur during times of high activity, manual processing and analysis of instability events is not practical for monitoring purposes. Therefore, an automatic classification system has been developed, which is capable of identifying different kinds of instabilities as well as rainfall. Two different kinds of classifier models have been applied: (1) neural network and (2) K-nearest-neighbour classifier model. Both classify Doppler spectra according to the underlying dynamic process, that is, rain, sliding material, gravitational break-off or explosive outburst. The classifiers are able to identify disturbances, which have no physical source, but are merely artefacts from the radar device itself. Because radar events are sequences of Doppler spectra, a rule set has been defined, which finally determines the event class. All classifiers have been trained and tested on independent data sets to estimate the classification performance. The overall classification rate is about 90 per cent. Discrimination of instabilities and non-volcanic events reaches about 98 per cent accuracy.     

Lead isotope distribution in podzolic soil profiles on different types of bedrock in a formerly glaciated terrain (Oslo,Norway)

Lead has been exploited by man over thousands of years for a variety of metallurgical, medicinal, and industrial purposes. The cumulative output of Pb from mining is estimated to be 260 million metric tonnes and 85% of this has occurred over the last two centuries. Global annual production of Pb from mining was about 3 million tonnes at the turn of the millenium. Terrestrial ecosystems all over Norway have been contaminated moderately to strongly by Pb and other trace elements from atmospheric deposition. With the aim of developing a method for mapping the accumulated content of anthropogenic Pb and how deep in the soil profile the atmospherically deposited Pb has penetrated, the concentration of Pb and the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio has been studied in podzolic forest soils at four locations with different lithology, i.e. age and type of bedrock, in the Oslo area. The concentrations of Pb in the soil profiles are 6.6–38.1 mg/kg (median 10.3). The ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio ranges between 1.168 and 1.314 (median 1.267) over the entire profile. In the upper 5 cm the range is 1.168–1.191, similar to ratios determined in recent atmospheric deposition. Applying three different methods, the amount of anthropogenically deposited Pb is estimated at 1–6 t/km².     

In situ heavy metals (copper, lead and cadmium) in different plankton compartments and suspended particulate matter in two coupled Mediterranean coastal ecosystems (Toulon Bay, France)

We monitored the concentrations of copper, lead and cadmium in seawater, in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and in bacteria, phyto- and zooplankton communities separated from abiogenic particles, over a one year cycle in two coupled Mediterranean coastal ecosystems (Little Bay (LiB) and Large Bay (LaB)). Metals were present in seawater in the order Cu > Pb > Cd in both bays and showed important variations within the same month than among months. In LiB, their concentrations were between 0.62 and 2.82 μg Cu l⁻¹, 0.16 and 19 μg Pb l⁻¹ and 0.007 and 0.14 μg Cd l⁻¹, respectively, whereas in LaB, they were between 0.23 and 2.11 μg Cu l⁻¹, 0.09 and 0.76 μg Pb l⁻¹ and not detected and 0.65 μg Cd l⁻¹. SPM play an important role on metal adsorption, especially for copper. Bioaccumulation factors showed that bacteria and phytoplankton accumulate metals whereas zooplankton tends to biodiminish them in the plankton food web.