Sensitivity of simulated temperature,precipitation, and global radiation to different WRF configurations over the Carpathian Basin for regional climate applications

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce short-term regional climate simulations with several configurations for the Carpathian Basin region. The goal is to evaluate the performance of the model and analyze its sensitivity to different physical and dynamical settings, and input data. Fifteen experiments were conducted with WRF at 10 km resolution for the year 2013. The simulations differ in terms of configuration options such as the parameterization schemes, the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic dynamical cores, the initial and boundary conditions (ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses), the number of vertical levels, and the length of the spin-up period. E-OBS dataset 2 m temperature, total precipitation, and global radiation are used for validation. Temperature underestimation reaches 4–7 °C for some experiments and can be reduced by certain physics scheme combinations. The cold bias in winter and spring is mainly caused by excessive snowfall and too persistent snow cover, as revealed by comparison with satellite-based observations and a test simulation without snow on the surface. Annual precipitation is overestimated by 0.6–3.8 mm day⁻¹, with biases mainly accumulating in the period driven by large-scale weather processes. Downward shortwave radiation is underestimated all year except in the months dominated by locally forced phenomena (May to August) when a positive bias prevails. The incorporation of downward shortwave radiation to the validation variables increased the understanding of underlying problems with the parameterization schemes and highlighted false model error compensations.

     

Interplay of phosphogenesis and hydrothermalism in the latest Ediacaran rift of the High Atlas,Morocco

Two dissolution surfaces, capped by phosphatic crusts that contain up to 40 wt.% of P₂O₅, are well exposed in the latest Ediacaran Tabia Member (Adoudou Formation) of the Ouneïn region, High Atlas. Both the Tabia dolostones and capping phosphorites are crosscut by several generations of synsedimentary faults, fissures, and hydrothermal dikes hosting Cu ore bodies, in a scenario of down-faulted blocks. Stratigraphic and facies relationships suggest the preservation of a major pulse of intra-cratonic rifting, responsible for the development of an unstable carbonate platform subjected to sharp uplift and tilting perturbations and dissolution processes, associated with hydrothermal dike-swarm injection. The whole framework is sealed with the Tamjout Bed (Tifnout Member), which marks the end of abundant regional tilting (syn-rift phase) and the beginning of a thermal subsidence-dominated regime (post-rift phase) in the Moroccan margin of West Gondwana.     

Block-preconditioned Newton–Krylov solvers for fully coupled flow and geomechanics

The focus of this work is efficient solution methods for mixed finite element models of variably saturated fluid flow through deformable porous media. In particular, we examine preconditioning techniques to accelerate the convergence of implicit Newton–Krylov solvers. We highlight an approach in which preconditioners are built from block-factorizations of the coupled system. The key result of the work is the identification of effective preconditioners for the various sub-problems that appear within the block decomposition. We use numerical examples drawn from both linear and nonlinear hydromechanical models to test the robustness and scalability of the proposed methods. Results demonstrate that an algebraic multigrid variant of the block preconditioner leads to mesh-independent convergence, good parallel efficiency, and insensitivity to the material parameters of the medium.     

Modelling suitable estuarine habitats for Zostera noltii, using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis and Bathymetric LiDAR

Predicting species distribution and habitat suitability is of considerable use in supporting the implementation of environmental legislation, protection and conservation of marine waters and ecosystem-based management. As other seagrasses, Zostera noltii has declined worldwide, mainly due to human pressures, such as eutrophication and habitat loss. In the case of the Basque Country (northern Spain), the species is present only in 3 out of 12 estuaries. From the literature, it is known that at least 6 of these estuaries were formerly vegetated by this seagrass. Consequently, efforts to monitor and restore (potential) habitats have been enhanced. Therefore, we aim: (i) to determine the main environmental variables explaining Zostera noltii distribution, within the Basque estuaries based upon the Oka estuary; (ii) to model habitat suitability for this species, as a wider applicable management-decision tool for seagrass restoration; and (iii) to assess the applicability and predicted accuracy of the model by using internal and external validation methods. For this purpose, Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) has been used to model habitat suitability, based upon topographical variables, obtained from bathymetric Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR); sediment characteristics variables; and hydrodynamic variables. The results obtained from the ecological factors of the ENFA (Marginality: 1.00; Specialization: 2.59) indicate that the species habitat differs considerably from the mean environmental conditions over the study area; likewise, that the species is restrictive in the selection of the range of conditions within which it dwells. The main environmental variables relating to the species distribution, in order of importance, are: mean grain size; redox potential; intertidal height; sediment sorting; slope of intertidal flat; percentage of gravels; and percentage of organic matter content. The model has a high predicted accuracy (Boyce index: 0.92). Model validation using an independent dataset in the Bidasoa estuary has shown the applicability but also the limitations in extrapolating the habitat suitability model to select suitable transplantation areas in other estuaries with similar morphological and biogeographical characteristics. ENFA-technique, applied with an accurate selection of environmental predictors, could be a promising tool for predicting seagrass habitat suitability which could assist on seagrass conservation and restoration programs worldwide.     

Bloom of the Yessotoxin producing dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum (Dinophyceae) in Northern Chile

Potential spawning habitat is defined as the area where environmental conditions are suitable for spawning to occur. Spawning adult data from the first quarter (January–March) of the International Bottom Trawl Survey have been used to study the inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat of North Sea plaice from 1980 to 2007. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to create a model that related five environmental variables (depth, bottom temperature and salinity, seabed stress and sediment type) to presence–absence and abundance of spawning adults. Then, the habitat model was applied each year from 1970 to 2007 to predict inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat. Predicted responses obtained by GAM for each year were mapped using kriging. A hierarchical classification associated with a correspondence analysis was performed to cluster spawning suitable areas and to determine how they evolved across years. The potential spawning habitat was consistent with historical spawning ground locations described in the literature from eggs surveys. It was also found that the potential spawning habitat varied across years. Suitable areas were located in the southern part of the North Sea and along the eastern coast of England and Scotland in the eighties; they expanded further north from the nineties. Annual survey distributions did not show such northward expansion and remained located in the southern North Sea. This suggests that this species' actual spatial distribution remains stable against changing environmental conditions, and that the potential spawning habitat is not fully occupied. Changes in environmental conditions appear to remain within plaice environmental ranges, meaning that other factors may control the spatial distribution of plaice spawning habitat.     

Stratigraphy of fossil pigments and Cladophora and its relationship with deposition of tephra in Lake Mývatn,Iceland

Fossil plant pigments and Cladophora fragments were analyzed in a 6.53 m long sediment profile from Lake Mývatn, Iceland, covering most of its history of about 2300 years. A decrease in myxoxanthophyll (produced by Cyanobacteria) with time and an increase in the benthic Cladophora reflects a gradual shift from planktonic to benthic primary production as water depth is reduced (to 3.15 m at the core site) because of sediment accumulation.Two periods of relatively high concentrations of myxoxanthophyll coincided with relatively frequent deposition of tephra (volcanic ash) but did neither conform with tectonic activity which might have changed the water level nor the available climatic record. Sediment depth, tephra content and percent undegraded chlorophyll (an indicator of pigment preservation) together could explain 56.7% of the variation in myxoxanthophyll. It is hypothesized that temporary increases in myxoxanthophyll resulted from periodic nutrient enrichment by fresh tephra deposited in the watershed or because tephra increased the erosion of organic soil in the water catchment area.Fluctuations in Cladophora show an inverse relationship with myxoxanthophyll in the uppermost 4 m of the core, and may result from a shading effect of planktonic Cyanobacteria on the phytobenthos or competition for nutrients released by the bottom sediments.     

Using Multiple Methods to Understand the Nature of Relationships in Social Networks

Effective natural resource management (NRM) often depends on collaboration through formal and informal relationships. Social network analysis (SNA) provides a framework for studying social relationships; however, a deeper understanding of the nature of these relationships is often missing. By integrating multiple analytical methods (including SNA, evidence ratings, and perception matrices), we were able to investigate the nature of relationships in NRM social networks across five service types (e.g., technical advice, on-ground support) in our case study region, Daly catchment Australia. Only one service type was rated as highly associated with free choice in establishing relationships: technical advice/knowledge. Beneficial characteristics of NRM organizations, such as collaborative and transparent, were associated with the presence of freely chosen relationships between organizations. Our results suggest a need to improve our understanding of organizational roles and characteristics, in particular for use in applied NRM contexts, such as network weaving or disseminating information.     

Predicting monthly precipitation along coastal Ecuador: ENSO and transfer function models

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - It is well known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns in several parts of the world. One of the most impacted areas is...     

Potential collapse of the upper slope and tsunami generation on the Great Barrier Reef margin, north-eastern Australia

Analysis of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and seismic profiles in the Noggin Passage region, north-eastern Australia, has identified a small area (Noggin block) in the upper-slope offshore Cairns that may potentially collapse and generate a tsunami wave. The Noggin block extends from 340 to 470 m depth covering a roughly circular (2.4 km long and 3.7 km wide) area of about 5.3 km². The well-defined margins of the block correspond to different bounding seabed features. These features include steep headscarps, small landslides and a group of aligned circular pockforms up to 500 m wide and 20 m deep. Slope stability simulations indicate that the Noggin block is stable under normal present-day gravitational conditions on the upper slope. However, block failure may result under external loads, such as those produced by earthquakes. Failure modelling shows that critical peak horizontal accelerations of 0.2–0.4 g could lead to the collapse of the Noggin block. In north-eastern Australia, these acceleration values would involve earthquakes generated at short hypocentral distances and short periods. The collapse of the potential sediment slide mass of about 0.86 km³ (162 m average thickness) may lead to the formation of a landslide-generated tsunami wave. Semi-empirical equations indicate the collapse of this mass would yield a 7–11-m high three-dimensional tsunami wave. These waves could reach an estimated run-up height at the coast of 5–7 m. Our first-order approach highlights the potential consequences for nearby coastal communities, the need for better sediment characterisation in the study area, and the systematic identification of other areas prone to slope failures along the Great Barrier Reef margin.     

Combined U/Pb and (U–Th)/He geochronometry of basalt maars in Western Carpathians: implications for age of intraplate volcanism and origin of zircon metasomatism

The age of intraplate volcanism in northern Pannonian Basin of Carpathians is revisited using a combination of zircon U/Pb, zircon (U–Th)/He and apatite (U–Th)/He dating techniques, complemented by electron microprobe (EMP) characterisation of dated minerals. A total of six maar structures and diatremes in the South-Slovakian Volcanic Field (SSVF) were dated and the obtained new ages yielded the following key findings: Two isolated maars in SE part indirectly dated by geomorphologic constraints to Late Pleistocene are actually of Pliocene (2.8 ± 0.2 Ma) and Late Miocene (5.5 ± 0.6 Ma) ages. In contrast, two maars in NW part of the study area are of Late Pliocene age (4.1 ± 0.4 and 5.2–5.4 Ma), younger than the Late Miocene age (~6.5 Ma) inferred previously from K/Ar data on the proximal basaltic lava flows. These maars therefore belong to the second volcanic phase that was previously identified only in SE part of the SSVF. In the light of the new geochronologic data, it seems likely that the Pliocene phreatomagmatic eruptions may have occurred along extension-related, NW- and NE-trending orthogonal faults. EMP analyses and imaging revealed an extensive syn- and post-growth metasomatic replacement by dissolution-reprecipitation in the majority of zircons. Abundant silicate melt inclusions in porous metasomatised parts of the zircons are diagnostic of magmatic rather than hydrothermal metasomatism. Consistent ages of the metasomatised and non-metasomatised zones do not indicate disturbance of the U–Pb system during the metasomatism. Enrichment in U and Th loss in the metasomatised zircons are diagnostic of an increasing oxygen fugacity triggered by degassing of the volatile residual melt during the final stages of alkali basalt fractionation. Rare zircon-to-baddeleyite transformation was probably connected with lowered silica activity in carbonated basaltic magmas in south-eastern part of the study area.