Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.     

Modelling of the long-range transport of peroxyacetylnitrate to Scandinavia

Model calculations and field measurements have shown that when air masses accumulate emissions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides from sources in continental Europe and then move towards Scandinavia without any synoptic scale break-up of the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g. frontal passages), elevated PAN concentrations in southern Norway or Sweden in the range 1–5 ppb may be caused by long-range transport. The model calculations showed that over sea, the persistence of PAN was comparable to that of ozone in an ageing air mass when the temperatures were fairly low (5–10°C). At higher temperatures the thermal decomposition of PAN made the compound less persistent than ozone. Over land, the situation may be different since the ground removal is typically three times more efficient for ozone than for PAN.According to the model, the concentration of PAN did not change very much when an ageing air mass was exposed to moderate emissions of hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, or both. The concentration of PAN decreased less than the concentration of ozone when an ageing air mass was exposed to high emissions of nitrogen oxides.     

Features in the primordial power spectrum: constraints from the cosmic microwave background and the limitation of the 2dF and SDSS redshift surveys to detect them

We allow a more general (step-function) form of the primordial power spectrum than the usual featureless power-law Harrison–Zeldovich (with spectral index   n =1)  power spectrum, and fit it to the latest cosmic microwave background data sets. Although the best-fitting initial power spectrum can differ significantly from the power-law shape, and contains a dip at scales   k ∼0.003  h  Mpc^-1  , we find that  Ω_m≈0.24  , consistent with previous analyses that assume power-law initial fluctuations. We also explore the feasibility of the early releases of the 2dF and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxy redshifts surveys to see these features, and we find that even if features exist in the primordial power spectrum, they are washed out by the window functions of the redshift surveys on scales   k <0.03  h  Mpc^-1  .     

Model analysis of the measured concentration of organic gases in the Norwegian Arctic

A 2-D meridional model for the chemistry and transport in the troposphere is used to study the seasonal variation of the concentration of organic gases like C₂H₂, C₂H₆, C₃H₈, C₆H₆, C₇H₈. CHCl₃ and C₂Cl₄ at high latitudes. The anthropogenic sources for these species were estimated, and the temporal and latitudinal distribution of OH and O₃ was calculated using a complex photochemical reaction system. There is fair agreement between the calculated annual variation and the measured concentrations for C₂H₂, C₂H₆, C₃H₈, C₇H₈ and C₂Cl₄ at Spitsbergen during July 1982 and March/April 1983, with a distinct late winter maximum and summer minimum. For CHCl₃, the direct anthropogenic source is minor compared to indirect anthropogenic or natural sources. For benzene, emission in car exhaust is important, but other anthropogenic sources are required for the calculations to agree with the measurements. Measured C₂H₄ and C₃H₆ concentrations are much higher than the calculated ones based on anthropogenic emissions, and show opposite seasonal trends. This indicates biogenic sources for these compounds.A buildup of PAN (300 pptv) is calculated at high latitudes during winter. This makes it the dominant source for NO_x as the temperature increases in the spring. NO_x is found to be a limiting factor for O₃ production at high latitudes during spring.     

Convective Redistribution of Ozone and Oxides of Nitrogen in the Troposphere over Europe in Summer and Fall

The fluxes of ozone and NO_x out of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over Europe are calculated in a mesoscale chemical transport model (MCT) and compared with the net chemical production or destruction of ozone and the emissions of precursors within the ABL for two 10 days' periods which had quite different synoptic situations and levels of photochemical activity (1–10 July 1991 (JUL91) and 26 October–4 November 1994 (ON94)). Over the European continent, about 8% of the NO_x emissions were brought from the ABL to the free troposphere as NO_x, while about 15% of the NO_x emissions were brought to the free troposphere as NO_y–NO_x, i.e. as PAN or HNO₃. The convection dominates over the synoptic scale vertical advection as a transport mechanism both for NO_x and NO_y out of the boundary layer in the summertime high pressure situation (JUL91), while in the fall situation (ON94) the convective part was calculated to be the smallest. NO_x was almost completely transformed to NO_y–NO_x or removed within the ABL. Also for NO_y the major part of the atmospheric cycle is confined to the ABL both for JUL91 and ON94. The vertical transport time out of the ABL is of the order of 100h both for the total model domain and over the European continent. The net convective exchange of ozone from the ABL is not a dominant process for the amount of ozone in the ABL averaged over 10 days and the whole domain, but convection reduces the maximum ozone concentration in episodes significantly. The ozone producing efficiency of NO_x is calculated to increase with height to typically 15–20 in the upper half of the troposphere from around 5 in the ABL, but in the middle free troposphere the concentration of NO_x is often too low to cause net chemical formation of ozone there.     

Co-evolutionary dynamics and institutions: Innovation in a guild community in Norway

ABSTRACT

The video game industry is often portrayed as a ‘footloose industry’ in which electronic goods can be produced and distributed from any location without positive or negative effects from factors such as resources or proximity to market. Hence, a conventional assumption is that the role of place is greatly diminished in the case of such industries. The author tests this assumption by analysing firms’ practice in a game developer community in Bergen, Norway, and the spatiality of linkages between the community and the environment. He proposes an alternative analytical framework for understanding practice in the industry, one that recognizes that a firm's practice is either embedded within or related to networks and institutional structures. The question of how contextual conditions, embeddedness and networks are treated in the literature on innovation is discussed, and the concept of community as an analytical concept is introduced and applied. After showing how practice in the case community has evolved within the cultural, social and territorial context, the author concludes that a portrayal of the game industry as a ‘footloose industry’ disembedded from its surroundings should be avoided, and instead the dynamic relationship between actors, context and practice should be heeded.     

Geochemical gradients in soil O-horizon samples from southern Norway: Natural or anthropogenic?

Forty soil O- and C-horizon samples were collected along a south-to-north transect extending inland for approximately 200 km from the southern tip of Norway. The elements As, Au, Bi, Cd, Cu, Ga, Ge, Hf, Hg, In, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, V, W, Zn and Zr all show a distinct decrease in concentration in soil O-horizons with increasing distance from the coast. The elements showing the strongest coastal enrichment, some by more than an order of magnitude compared to inland samples, are Au, Bi, As, Pb, Sb and Sn. Furthermore, the elements Cd (median O-/median C-horizon = 31), C, Sb, Ag, K, S, Ge (10), Hg, Pb, As, Bi, Sr (5), Se, Au, Ba, Na, Zn, P, Cu and Sn (2) are all strongly enriched in the O-horizon when compared to the underlying C-horizon. Lead isotope ratios, however, do not show any gradient with distance from the coast (declining Pb concentration). Along a 50 km topographically steep east–west transect in the centre of the survey area, far from the coast but crossing several vegetation zones, similar element enrichment patterns and concentration gradients can be observed in the O-horizon. Lead isotope ratios in the O-horizon correlate along both transects with pH and the C/N-ratio, both proxies for the quality of the organic material. Natural conditions in southern Norway, related to climate and vegetation, rather than long range atmospheric transport of air pollutants (LRT), cause the observed features.     

Horizontal simulation grids as alternative to structure-based grids for thin oil-zone problems: a comparison study on a Troll segment

The layering in reservoir simulation grids is often based on the geology, e.g., structure tops. In this paper we investigate the alternative of using horizontal layers, where the link to the geology model is by the representation of the petrophysics alone. The obvious drawback is the failure to honor the structure in the grid geometry. On the other hand, a horizontal grid will honor the initial fluid contacts perfectly, and horizontal wells can also be accurately represented. Both these issues are vital in thin oil-zone problems, where horizontal grids may hence be a viable alternative. To investigate this question, a number of equivalent simulation models were built for a segment of the Troll Field, both geology-based and horizontal, and various combinations of these. In the paper, it is demonstrated that the horizontal grid was able to capture the essentials of fluid flow with the same degree of accuracy as the geology-based grid, and near-well flow was considerably more accurate. For grids of comparable resolution, more reliable results were obtained by a horizontal grid than a geo-grid. A geo-grid with local grid refinement and a horizontal grid produced almost identical results, but the ratio of computing times was almost 20 in favor of the horizontal grid. In the one-phase regions of the reservoir, relatively coarse cells can be used without significant loss of accuracy.     

Is there evidence for magmatic underplating beneath the Oslo Rift?

We challenge some of the long-standing beliefs related to the Permian Oslo Rift structure, often referred to as a case example/type locality for continental rifting. The crustal structure of the Oslo Rift was long presumed to be thinned Proterozoic crust overlying a Permian high-density layer, interpreted as magmatic underplating. New data support an alternative view of the crustal structure in the Oslo Rift region. The Bouguer gravity high in the region shows a strong asymmetry: a steep, westward-facing gradient to the west of the rift, and a much gentler eastern gradient. We present a 3D density model based on petrophysical and seismic information, which accounts for the Bouguer gravity high using an eastward extension of old Precambrian structures, without invoking a prominent magmatic underplated structure. Reactivation of old pre-rift structures appears to be an important feature, affecting the evolution and location of the Permo-Carboniferous Oslo Rift.