Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years.     

The biosphere: A homogeniser of Pb-isotope signals

Rock, soil, and plant (terrestrial moss, European mountain ash leaves, mountain birch leaves, bark and wood, and spruce needles and wood) samples, collected at 3 km intervals along a 120 km long transect (40 sites) cutting the city of Oslo, Norway, were analysed for their Pb concentration and Pb-isotope ratios. A general decrease in ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁸Pb ratios, with a characteristic low variability in all plant materials and the plant-derived O-horizon of soil profiles, compared to rocks and mineral soils, is observed along the transect. It is demonstrated that minerogenic and biogenic sample materials belong to two different spheres, the lithosphere and biosphere, and that geochemical processes determining their chemical and isotopic compositions differ widely. Background variation for both sample materials needs to be established and documented at the continental and global scale before the anthropogenic influence on the geochemistry of the earth’s surface can be reliably estimated.     

Timing of the younger dryas glacial maximum in western Norway

This study precisely constrains the timing of the Younger Dryas (YD) glacial maximum in south‐western Norway by utilizing sediment records from lake basins. Two of the basins, located on the distal side of the mapped Herdla–Halsnøy Moraine, received meltwater directly from the ice sheet only when the ice margin reached its maximum extent during the YD. In the cores, the ice maximum is represented by well‐defined units with meltwater deposits, dominantly laminated silt. Plant macrofossils in the sediment sequences are common and we obtained 18 radiocarbon ages from one of the cores. By applying Bayesian age–depth modelling we obtained a precise date for this meltwater event and thereby also for the timing of the YD glacial maximum. We conclude that the ice‐sheet advance culminated at the Halsnøy Moraine at 11 760 ± 120 cal a BP, and that the ice margin stayed in this position for 170 ± 120 years. The subsequent retreat started at 11 590 ± 100 cal a BP, i.e. close to the YD/Holocene boundary. Withdrawal was probably triggered by abrupt climatic warming at this time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gaseous and Particulate Oxidized and Reduced Nitrogen Species in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in Scandinavia in Spring

Observations of the concentration of several nitrogen containing compounds at five rural Scandinavian sites during March–June 1993 are reported. Total nitrate (NO ₃ ^- + HNO₃) and total ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ + NH₃) were measured by denuder and filter pack. In general the methods agree well. At all sites the particulate fraction dominated, with the largest fraction of NO ₃ ^- and the lowest of NH ₄ ⁺ at the sites which were closest to the emission sources. The fraction of NO ₃ ^- of total nitrate increased with increasing NO₂ concentrations, indicating that the nighttime conversion of NO₂ to NO ₃ ^- is an important route of formation for NO ₃ ^- . A positive correlation was found between HNO₃ and O₃ in June at all sites, while no correlation was found early in the spring. Model calculations were made with a lagrangian boundary layer photooxidant model for the whole period, and compared to the measured concentrations. The calculated ratio between mean observed and modelled daily maximum concentrations of ozone over the measurement period were within +/–10% at all sites. The models ability to describe the daily ozone maximum concentration was satisfactory with an average deviation of 19–22% from the observed concentrations. HNO₃ was underestimated by over 50% at all sites except the one closest to the emission sources. The correlation between modelled and observed concentrations was generally best for the sites with shortest transport distance from the sources of emission.     

The road to deforestation: An assessment of forest loss and its causes in Basho Valley, Northern Pakistan

Deforestation in the Himalayas is generally seen as caused primarily by population growth. Based on interviews and the analysis of satellite images, we critically examine this view using Basho Valley in the Western Himalayas of Pakistan as a case study. Our findings indicate that the forest of Basho has been reduced by at least 50% after the valley was opened up through the construction of a link road in 1968. Large-scale legal and illegal commercial harvesting was carried out after the construction of the road. While legal commercial harvesting was stopped in 1987, illegal harvesting has since continued with the involvement of the Forest Department. The findings of this study do not support theories in which deforestation is attributed to rapid population growth. Instead, mismanagement and illegal commercial harvesting endorsed by the Forest Department have been the main causes of deforestation in Basho Valley.     

Calendar year age estimates of Allerød–Younger Dryas sea‐level oscillations at Os,western Norway

A detailed shoreline displacement curve documents the Younger Dryas transgression in western Norway. The relative sea‐level rise was more than 9 m in an area which subsequently experienced an emergence of almost 60 m. The sea‐level curve is based on the stratigraphy of six isolation basins with bedrock thresholds. Effort has been made to establish an accurate chronology using a calendar year time‐scale by ¹⁴C wiggle matching and the use of time synchronic markers (the Vedde Ash Bed and the post‐glacial rise in Betula (birch) pollen). The sea‐level curve demonstrates that the Younger Dryas transgression started close to the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition and that the high stand was reached only 200 yr before the Younger Dryas–Holocene boundary. The sea level remained at the high stand for about 300 yr and 100 yr into Holocene it started to fall rapidly. The peak of the Younger Dryas transgression occurred simultaneously with the maximum extent of the ice‐sheet readvance in the area. Our results support earlier geophysical modelling concluding a causal relationship between the Younger Dryas glacier advance and Younger Dryas transgression in western Norway. We argue that the sea‐level curve indicates that the Younger Dryas glacial advance started in the late Allerød or close to the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fishing‐induced evolution of growth: concepts,mechanisms and the empirical evidence

The interest in fishing‐induced life‐history evolution has been growing in the last decade, in part because of the increasing number of studies suggesting evolutionary changes in life‐history traits, and the potential ecological and economic consequences these changes may have. Among the traits that could evolve in response to fishing, growth has lately received attention. However, critical reading of the literature on growth evolution in fish reveals conceptual confusion about the nature of ‘growth’ itself as an evolving trait, and about the different ways fishing can affect growth and size‐at‐age of fish, both on ecological and on evolutionary time‐scales. It is important to separate the advantages of being big and the costs of growing to a large size, particularly when studying life‐history evolution. In this review, we explore the selection pressures on growth and the resultant evolution of growth from a mechanistic viewpoint. We define important concepts and outline the processes that must be accounted for before observed phenotypic changes can be ascribed to growth evolution. When listing traits that could be traded‐off with growth rate, we group the mechanisms into those affecting resource acquisition and those governing resource allocation. We summarize potential effects of fishing on traits related to growth and discuss methods for detecting evolution of growth. We also challenge the prevailing expectation that fishing‐induced evolution should always lead to slower growth.