Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results

Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.     

Trace element zoning in pyroxenes from ODP Hole 735B gabbros: diffusive exchange or synkinematic crystal fractionation?

Major and trace element profiles of clinopyroxene grains in oceanic gabbros from ODP Hole 735B have been investigated by a combined in situ analytical study with ion probe, and electron microprobe. In contrast to the homogeneous major element compositions, trace elements (REE, Y, Cr, Sr, and Zr) show continuous core to rim zoning profiles. The observed trace element systematics in clinopyroxene cannot be explained by a simple diffusive exchange between melts and gabbros along grain boundaries. A simultaneous modification of the melt composition is required to generate the zoning, although Rayleigh fractional crystallization modelling could mimic the general shape of the profiles. Simultaneous metasomatism between the cumulate crystal and the porous melt during crystal accumulation is the most likely process to explain the zoning. Deformation during solidification of the crystal mush could have caused squeezing out of the incompatible element enriched residual melts (interstitial liquid). Migration of the melt along grain boundaries might carry these melt out of the system. This process named as synkinematic differentiation or differentiation by deformation (Natland and Dick in J Volcanol Geotherm Res 110(3–4):191–233, 2001) may act as an important magma evolution mechanism in the oceanic crust, at least at slow-spreading ridges.     

Stratigraphic filtering and source penetration depth

Seismic exploration underneath highly heterogeneous layers such as basalt flows is possible by lowering the principal source frequency. Unfortunately this also reduces resolution. Wave‐localization theory is a multiple scattering theory that can be used to study stratigraphic filtering in chaotic lithologies. It predicts the apparent attenuation due to scattering of a plane wave traversing a layer with high velocity fluctuations. It can therefore predict the optimum principle source frequency in the trade‐off between loss of resolution and increased penetration depth. We show how this can be done with the help of a few statistical parameters derived from a well‐log analysis; namely, the average background velocity, the expected standard deviation in the velocity fluctuations, the typical scale length of the heterogeneities and the thickness of the basalt layer. In the likely situation that no local well logs exist, a multitude of scenarios can easily be examined at low cost.     

Micromorphological Analysis of Coastal Sediments from Willapa Bay, Washington, USA: A Technique for Analysing Inferred Tsunami Deposits

Tsunami deposits are provisionally distinguished in the field on the basis of anomalous sand horizons, fining-up and fining-landward, coupled with organic-rich, fragmented `backwash' sediments. In this paper, micromorphological features of a sediment sequence previously interpreted as being of tsunami origin are described. These characteristics are shown to be consistent with the macro-scale features used elsewhere, but show additional details not seen in standard stratigraphies, including possible evidence for individual waves, possibly wave-magnitude progression, organic fragment alignment and intraclast microstructures. Although replication and more complete studies are needed, this analysis confirms the identification of a tsunami in Willapa Bay in ca.1700 AD, while demonstrating a widely applicable technique for confirming or refuting possible tsunami deposits.     

Approaches for modeling longitudinal dispersion in pore-networks

The purpose of this study is to quantify the dispersivity in the longitudinal direction by upscaling pore scale mixing over a network domain and to verify the dispersivity with that obtained through the more rigorous upscaling technique, the Brownian particle tracking model (BPTM). We model a porous medium with a network of pore-units that are comprised of pore bodies and bonds of finite volume. Such a pore-unit is assumed to be a mixing cell with the steady state flow condition for a single fluid. Dispersivity can be obtained by solving the mixing cell model (MCM) for the concentration in each pore-unit and by averaging the concentrations for a large number of pore units (as a function of time and space). A minimal size of network that ascertains an asymptotic value of dispersivity was determined and verified with large size pore networks. This numerically computed dispersivity is compared with the results from the BPTM for the same porous medium and flow conditions. We show that the dispersivity obtained from the MCM is equally reliable for the heterogeneous pore-networks and can be estimated as a function of pore size heterogeneity. For homogeneous networks with the MCM, the iteration time step plays an important role. On the other hand, for networks with the BPTM, the assumption of intra-bond velocity profile affects the results.     

The effect of single vegetation elements on wind speed and sediment transport in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso

Soil loss caused by wind erosion is a widespread phenomenon in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. According to Sahelian farmers, scattered vegetation standing in amongst the crop has the potential for a wind erosion control strategy. This study was conducted to study the effect of single vegetation elements on the pattern of average wind speed and sediment transport. This was done by two experiments that were carried out during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2003 in north Burkina Faso, West Africa. Wind speeds were measured using three sonic anemometers, at a sampling frequency of 16 Hz. Sediment transport was determined by calculating the mass fluxes from 17 MWAC catchers. In this study, a shrub was defined as a vegetation element with branches until ground and a tree as a vegetation element with a distinctive trunk below a canopy. Behind shrubs wind speed near the soil surface was reduced up to approximately seven times the height of the shrub. The observed reduction in wind speed in the area where wind speed was reduced was 15 per cent on average. At the sides of the shrub, wind speed was increased, by on average 6 per cent. As the area of increase in wind speed is one‐third of the area of decrease in wind speed, the net effect of a shrub is a reduction in wind speed. A similar pattern was visible for the pattern of sediment transport around a shrub. Downwind of a shrub, sediment transport was diminished up to seven times the height of the shrub. Probably most of this material was trapped by the shrub. Trees showed a local increase of wind around the trunk, which is expected to relate to an increase in sediment transport around the trunk. Mass flux measurements of sediment transport were not made, but visual observations in the field substantiate this. Behind the canopy of a tree, a tree acts similarly to a shrub regarding its effects on average wind speed, but as a tree is generally a larger obstacle than a shrub the extent of this effect is larger than for shrubs. Thus, whereas shrubs are more effective than trees regarding their direct effect on soil loss by trapping sand particles near the soil surface, trees are more effective in affecting soil loss indirectly by reducing the wind speed downwind more effectively than shrubs. Therefore, to reduce soil loss in an area, the presence of both trees and shrubs is crucial. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating meander evolution of the Geul River (the Netherlands) using a topographic steering model

Active meandering rivers are capable of reworking and removing large quantities of valuable land. Therefore, understanding the characteristics of meandering rivers and predicting future meander behaviour can be of great value for local authorities. In this study, we apply a topographic steering meander model to the Geul River (southern Netherlands), using field data to calibrate the model. The present channel characteristics of the Geul River were mapped in the field. Cut‐banks were classified as erosive, unstable or stable. The model outcomes were compared with these field data. Several model runs were carried out, using different sets of parameter values. After studying the results and using the field data, we introduced the concept of a variable channel width in the simulation model. In reality, the river has different channel widths varying from 8 to more than 15 m. These widths are a linear function of local curvature. The model runs using a variable channel width show that the model is capable of predicting locations of lateral migration in conformity with observed active lateral migration and erosive banks. With both models, the sediment reworking time of the floodplain can be calculated. Floodplain reworking times of 200–300 years were calculated. In combination with the lateral migration rate, this reworking time is an important element in catchment sediment budget calculations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Women at work—experiences and identity in rural East Germany

The economic restructuring since German unification has produced gender-differentiated patterns in the rural workplace. Most studies of East German labour market changes have illustrated the nature of such patterns in quantitative terms whilst neglecting their impact on everyday life. The relationship between the significance of work for women's quality of life and self-identification, and women's withdrawal from the public has, however, remained under-explored. Based on data obtained through correspondence and in-depth interviews in Mecklenburg-Westpommerania, this paper aims to address this relationship by discussing women's work-related experiences before and since unification.